FOREX-Euro gains on better money market conditions, China data
NEW YORK, Dec 9 (Reuters) - The euro rose to a six-week high against
the dollar and a five-year peak versus the yen on Monday, helped by
tighter money market conditions in the euro zone and China's strong
trade numbers which have boosted investor tolerance for riskier
currencies. Europe's common currency stayed strong despite last Friday's
better-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls report, tepid economic
conditions in the euro zone, and constant reiteration low for some time.
The euro is now within striking distance of its yearly highs. Further
helping risk sentiment were strong trade numbers from China. Its exports
came in well above forecast in November, rising 12.7 percent from a
year earlier, while imports rose 5.3 percent. "The strong labor data out
of the U.S. and the robust trade balance numbers from China suggest
that global growth may be better than consensus view," said Boris
Schlossberg, managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management in
New York.
"Under that scenario, both the U.S. and China could act as
locomotives for global GDP expansion and help lift the euro zone out of
its funk." The euro rose as high as $1.3728 and was last at $1.3722,
firmer on the day as short-term interest rates in the euro zone money
market edged up with the chances of more easing Against the yen, the
euro climbed to 141.56, reaching highs not seen since October 2008. It
was last trading at 141.38 yen, up 0.3 percent on the day, ignoring a
drop in euro zone sentiment and a fall in German industrial output.
The
euro's rise nudged the dollar index down 0.1 percent to 80.203, having
hit a near six-week low of 80.169 earlier in the day. The dollar tracked
lower U.S. Treasury yields, which failed to get traction from a strong
U.S. payrolls number. U.S. employers hired more workers than expected in
November, driving the jobless rate to a five-year low of 7.0 percent.
But the better-than-expected jobs number was not robust enough to lead
markets to price in an immediate withdrawal of monetary stimulus by the
Federal Reserve. That pushed U.S. Treasury yields lower and dragging the
dollar down.
Still, Camilla Sutton, chief currency strategist at
ScotiaBank in Toronto, said the overall U.S. economic environment
suggests that tapering is likely to happen in January. "The Fed will
work hard to push out expectations for higher rates as it tapers and
there is a risk of a decision to lower the unemployment threshold," said
Sutton. "In this environment we would expect the U.S. dollar to be
broadly stronger." A Reuters poll showed Wall Street firms expect the
Fed to start reducing its massive bond-buying programme no later than
March, though with only a handful of them expecting action as early as
next week. Fed policymakers like Jeffrey Lacker, Richard Fisher and
James Bullard will speak later, with traders keen to hear any hints on
when tapering will begin.
The only speaker who is a voting member of the
Federal Open Market Committee this year is Bullard, however. He
recently said a strong payrolls number would raise the chance of
tapering in December. The dollar fell to a 1-1/2 month low against the
low-yielding safe-haven Swiss franc, with the latter also buoyed by
growing signs that deflation in Switzerland was abating and the economy
was growing. The dollar fell to 0.8905 franc, its lowest since Oct. 25.
Against the yen, the dollar held firm at 103.08 yen, up 0.2 percent,
following Friday's 1.1 percent rally, not far from the six-month peak of
103.38 hit on Tuesday. The yen continued to underperform on the Bank of
Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy and the pick-up in risk appetite.
Data on Monday showed Japan's current account balance unexpectedly fell
into the red in October, underpinning the dollar against the yen.
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