"You made how much?" I screamed down the phone to the calm voice on the other side of the Atlantic. Tapping away at my calculator, I continued in disbelief, "but that means you earned for Salomon Brothers an average of $250,000 each and every single trading day for eight years!" I resisted the urge to faint, or swear.
I had spoken to many successful traders, but the conversation with Bill Lipschutz, with whom I had had the above conversation, former global head of foreign exchange and managing director at Salomon Brothers, stuck in my mind for the size of his trading successes.

This was my point of arrival, after having spoken and interviewed, even cross-examined and interrogated, the world's leading traders. The original quest was to find what, if anything, they had in common despite their differences. I did not want the trite and over-used "cut your losses short, set stop-losses, etc., etc." type of insight. Traders know to cut their losses short, they want to know they are cutting it short and not cutting a potential profit short. Too often the trite rule has missed the real difficult issue.

Nor did I want advice which only the professional trader could use or understand. I wanted to discover something for professional and private traders alike. I wanted to rip out and hold in my hand for close inspection the very heart of trading success.

Any conclusions would be irresistibly and irrefutably strong (as well as hopefully being insightful and original ) because it would relate to trading itself, not just one product, or technique or tool or country. I was not disappointed.

The common element that linked them all, and separated them from their less successful colleagues was their frame of mind; their attitudes to trading, to losses, to open positions, to profits, to success and failure. Indeed, they redefined success and failure itself. Their perspective was unlike that exhibited by any less successful traders. They had a way of viewing trading such that if you were to force them to trade according to a particular system, they would still be more profitable than their colleagues using the same system. They added a value to any potentially profitable trading technique and tool to turn it into a superior profit maker.
A list of the main traits these leading traders exemplified follows:
Opportunity Knocks the Door Down
Since kindergarten each of us is taught to grab opportunities for they do not knock twice. It is precisely that type of advice, which is so useful in other walks of life, but detrimental in trading.
Many traders, armed with their trading plan or strategy, will often hastily and prematurely enter a trade. Their decision is often driven by fear; the fear of the missed opportunity. Their mind will be screaming, "quick get on the trade, you're going to miss it, so what if all your criteria for entering a trade have not been met? Most of them have, so get on the trade. The big traders wouldn't hang around."
The inevitable result is that the trade will not be profitable or as profitable as it would have been had the trader waited for the precise moment to strike.

In trading, the fear of the missed opportunity leads to many avoidable losses. And the game of trading is as much about avoiding losses as about capturing profits. The leading traders have a different perspective on opportunity. Counter-intuitively they know opportunity knocks once, twice and then kicks the door down. They know that if this trade does not feel absolutely perfect, there will be another one along in a short while. That knowledge alleviates and over-rides any fear. That knowledge is the key to unlocking greater profits by waiting for all the trade entry criteria to be met and not cutting corners.
Bill Lipschutz summed it up when he said, "Out of 250 trades in a year, it comes down to five, three of those will be wrong and you will lose a fortune and two will be right and you will make a fortune; for the other 245 trades-you should have been sitting on your hands."

Great Traders Tend to be Risk Averse
There is a general perception, once again more propagated by life and not trading experiences, that one needs to risk a lot to profit a lot. Every one of the traders I interviewed stated unequivocally that they were risk-averse. As Bernard Oppetit, global head of equity derivatives at Banque Paribas put it, "you do not need to risk a lot to profit a lot." Jon Najarian, CBOE director and the chairman of Mercury Trading put it similarly, "making money today is not more important than being able to come back tomorrow."
Pat Arbor, chairman of the Chicago Board of Trade, warned against going for the "home-run." His trading philosophy is based on "una fagiola;" one bean, at a time into the bag. As one of the most experienced and successful traders on CBOT, he insists trying to put lots of "beans into the bag" at once will result in most not going in. He counsels that the steady approach will result in far more profits in the longer run.
The message is to wait, and wait for a high probability trade in the knowledge that they do exist and can lead to as great a profit as more risky trades. Moreover the danger of riskier trades is not only a loss, but also such a loss that you have no funds left.

Luck: Stacking the Odds
Following on from the nature of traders as being risk-averse, they have a knack for stacking the odds. As Lipchutz puts it, "I happen to believe that by far the biggest component of trading success is luck, it's not the rolling the dice type of luck, but stacking the odds." These top traders practice their risk aversion by ensuring the odds of a successful outcome are heavily stacked in their favor.
This is not only done by ample research and planning, but also recognizing that when they are in a good trade to "push their luck." As David Kyte, chairman of the Kyte Group and the largest local on LIFFE put it, "you do not step in the way of a train that's going at full steam." Najarian and Kyte both said, "You make your own luck in this game" meaning that you stack the odds of making a profitable trade by planning and waiting until all your trade entry criteria are satisfied, if then the trade does prove to be as lucrative as it promised you "push your luck" by perhaps adding to the position and riding it for all it is worth.

The Emotional Problem
Trader's attitude to their potential and existing positions is often a great determinant of success. As every trader knows, the moment a trade is executed, everything is different. That is the point at which it becomes real, no longer digits on a screen and numbers in an account. Now expectation is joined by anticipation. The brain is joined by the heart. Reason is joined by emotion. You exchange detachment for attachment.
When you have an open position and you are looking to close it, you will either have a profit or a loss. The emotions relating to each are quite different. For instance, when sitting on a loss many traders experience hope that the position will turn around because they fear and deny that it may not. It is for you to recognize these emotions and to discard them. Your judgment has to be based on detached reason relating to your analysis of the company.

How you behave once you have an open position is all important. Without clear thinking you could exit too soon or too late. Your key concern with an open position is timing your exit. Of course there are times when you are deciding whether to add to a position, but generally you are concerned with exit. With an open position, you are concerned with closing the position. In order to do that, an open position requires an open mind.
"The key is to be intellectually honest. You have to think of every day as a clean slate. You've got to forget about your loss or how much you paid-you have to treat each day as a completely new day. You have to start everyday with a blank page. Mark to market should be the rule so you start each day afresh. There is no expected profit or loss on the book so you have to start from scratch each morning," says Oppetit.

Poor Planning Produces Pathetic Performance
Although an SAS motto, the above is equally applicable to trading. The top traders did not trade "by the seat of their pants." Planning and its benefits was a key aspect to the way they viewed the markets. The top traders plan "what if" scenarios and think about their response to each probable outcome. The main benefits were that with plan in hand or in mind the trader's confidence is enhanced, fear of loss reduced and that in turn assists clear thinking and removal of hope so ensuring the trader stays focused on his original reason for entering the trade.

Oppetit summed this up well when he said, "whether I get out at a profit or loss does not matter." Martin Burton, founder and managing director of Monument Derivatives and former director of NatWest Markets was talking about the same thing when he said, "it is not a 90 minute game." They both know that sticking to their plan is far more important than temporary blips in their profit and loss accounts.
Losses-A Curious View
The top traders were totally at ease with losing. This is not something one expects from those at the top of their profession. Although true in other walks of life, that perfection is to be sought, in trading, perfection is not an option. Paul RT Johnson, vice president at ING Securities and a director at CBOT said bluntly, "You are going to be wrong. You are not perfect."

The top traders would cut their loss and move on. The issue was not whether the market may turnaround if they hung in there. They cut their loss if it is what they had said they would do in their plan. They would get out at the predetermined level. The discipline of sticking to the plan was primary and the real issue. To say "cut your losses short" missed the whole point and was of no help to anyone. By cutting their loss, they would free up capital to place in more profitable positions elsewhere, and free up mental energy to focus on new opportunities. Arbor summed it up by saying, "your first loss is your best loss."

Conclusion
It is not possible to do justice to the wisdom and accumulated experiences of the world's leading traders in a short article. However, I have tried to convey how their minds work in a way that apparently runs against common intuition. These differing perspectives ensure that with the same tools and products everyone has to trade with, they make far more in profits because their minds are different.



By :Alpesh Patel , is an attorney turned trader and the author of The Mind of a Trader: Lessons in Trading Strategy from the World's Leading Traders published by Financial Times Pitman Publishing (order number 800-462-6420). He operates his own derivatives fund concentrating on traded equity options. He has extensive experience in both the U.K. and U.S. derivatives markets and holds equities in the U.K., India, France and the U.S. As a former chairman of the University of London Finance Society, he has lectured extensively on trading techniques. As a lawyer he advised banks, building societies, and pension funds on financial services. He can be reached at alpesh-patel@msn.com

With the markets trading at mind boggling ranges, it really makes sense to discuss a part of trading that won’t be found on most charts – and that’s called Trading Psychology. It’s one thing to have a trading plan and system, but actually following it, especially when things aren’t exactly going your way, is something else entirely. Following the key trading success rules can help you improve your plans when it comes to real life trading.
Let’s face it, losses are part of any business – especially trading. Losses have to be accepted before a business even begins its operation. Here are a few things to remember about losses and how you can make them part of your trading business.

Losses

1. Remain mentally and emotionally focused while trading.
2. Losses are part of all systems; knowing when to take losses is important.
3. Always try to be extremely disciplined, and exit your losing trades when your system requires you to do so.
4. Not taking losses when indicated is dangerous.
5. Riding losing trades for too long usually results in larger losses and risk of ruin increases.
6. It’s not a good idea to keep changing stops to avoid a loss.
7. System traders use stops consistently.
8. Separate yourself as a trader from yourself as a person.
9. No system can trade the markets without taking losses at times.
10. Clumping can happen on the losing side as well as the winning side.
11. Your ability to take losses quickly is a great asset to your trading.

Discipline

Now this is vital to trading success. Imagine a person trying to become a pro athlete, but he or she sleeps in every day, eats excessively, stays up late and parties every night. Is this person going to become an elite athlete or not? The answer is no, and the reason why has everything to do with the amount of discipline. Discipline, in my mind, is like homework, only it’s homework that pays off in dollars in the trading industry. Here are a few rules that I use when it comes to discipline in my life as a trader:

1. Good trading discipline is vital to my success.
2. My three successes to the market are: doing my market homework, following through, and using my stop losses.
3. I train my mind every day to be disciplined and focused.
4. I see myself every day doing my market homework and following the signals, setting stops.
5. I track my system exactly as it dictates.
6. If my system gives me daily signals, I follow them every day.
7. If my system gives me intraday signals, I follow them during the day.
8. I do not allow outside influences to affect my discipline.
9. Placing my orders correctly as my system dictates increases my odds for success.
10. Discipline to follow through with my system is my friend.
11. A system without stop losses puts me in a position of unlimited or unknown loss.
12. I understand that a major aspect of being disciplined is using stops.

Negativity

Negativity is in all aspects of life. I got enough of them in my family. I remember when I told my family that I wanted to be a trader. Now they didn’t call me stupid or an idiot-the rolling eyes said enough. The ability to think positively and block out negativity is key to having consistent profits. The biggest thing negativity can do in your trading business is to keep you from taking that next trade, which, ironically, could be a grand slam in profits. Here are my rules to fighting negativity.

1. My best tool against negative influences is my system.
2. Being consistent in my trading means following my rules.
3. As a consistent trader, I place my orders each day at the same time.
4. Through consistency, negative influences go away.
5. I follow through on scheduled assignments, such as order entry, exit, and adjustment.
6. I plan my trades and trade my plans to facilitate consistency.
7. I use a trading partner to achieve consistency in my trading.
8. Fear and Greed are the enemies of consistent trading.
9. My commitment of consistency blocks greed from my goals and objectives.
10. Keep goals and objectives realistic to combat fear and greed.

Focus

The ability to focus in any business is important. The ability to focus as the president of your own business is vital to its success. This is true in Trading because your report card reveals your focus in daily account statements. Here are a few things that I believe will help your focus as a key to success:

1. Focus is the opposite of distraction.
2. Choose to stay on the winning path by focusing on the markets during your market time.
3. Environment can cause distractions, so remove all distractions such as noise, visual distractions, and clutter from the workplace.
4. Self discipline, follow through, and consistency are the keys to trading success.
5. An organized workplace can keep away distractions.
6. Focus on one trading aspect at a time in small bites.

Success

Success in your trading business is contagious. Having a plan for success, as well as following through and readjusting your goals over time, is highly important. Here are my rules for success:

1. Success in trading is achieved by working on goals that are specific.
2. Success is comfortable and positive, not exciting and emotional.
3. The past is over and done with. I move forward!
4. I complete trades according to the rules of my trading system. Doing this achieves success in my trading.
5. Success means seeing my profit goals as well as my security in stops, and I know where my trade will be closed out at any time.
6. I visualize myself as a master of market skills and as a profitable trader.

Avoiding Bad Habits

You might think this falls into the negativity category, and it will be if you don’t block out bad habits and follow the rules below:

1. Have the capability of reversing any bad trading habits that you may develop.
2. Accept the fact that as a human, you may fall victim to bad trading habits.
3. Remember that you can change losing and destructive trading habits.
4. Know exactly what your bad trading habits are, make a list of them, and refer to them often.
5. Keep a checklist off all your trading rules and follow all procedures each and every time.
6. If you are unclear about a trade, simply do not make the trade.
7. Keep a diary of all your trades and what rules you follow, and follow up on both the winners and losers.
8. If you have an emotional day, no matter if it’s high or low, don’t trade that day.
9. Many errors are subtle, so keep a close eye on your errors and fix them as soon as possible.

Getting Cocky and Overconfident

Overconfidence can soften your focus and throw you into a state of mind where nothing can go wrong. It is at this stage in trading that everything can go wrong. Really learning the following rules will help you avoid falling into the trap of being overconfident:

1. Understand that overconfidence can occur if you have too many winning trades.
2. Catch yourself when you have thoughts that your trading system can do no wrong.
3. Catch yourself when you say you need to leverage up because you are “never wrong.”
4. Catch yourself when you think you can guess the direction of the markets.
5. Do not allow overconfidence to cause you to overtrade and bring about losses.
6. Overconfidence can lead you to a fantasyland of 100% profits, and that leads you to lose your discipline.
7. If this happens, stop trading and redirect your mind to your trading system.
8. Live in the reality of your trading system. If you have many winning trades in a row, remember to check the long term results of the trading system, including losses.

Winning Attitude

Following the rules above is great, but it’s not enough. Developing a Winning Attitude will stop negative thoughts from creeping in, and outside influences from changing your plan. Here are my thoughts about developing a winning attitude:

1. A positive attitude enhances your market performance.
2. Don’t dwell on losses if they are part of the system’s performance.
3. Attaining a goal starts by having a goal. Avoid setting goals that cannot be achieved. Achieving your goals means sticking to your system each day.
4. Achieving your goals means doing the homework before the market opens.
5. Achieving your goals means placing all of orders ahead of time.
6. Understand how your system is constructed and its maturity before you take the first trade.
7. Achieving your goals means following through from start to finish.
8. Focus on the next winning trade, and leave the last trade behind.
9. Be organized, consistent, set goals and follow through.

Trading Psychology, in my mind, accounts for half of my trading profits. It doesn’t matter how good your system is or how great your trading strategy might be. If you cannot follow both the winners and the losers, then you will not be able to duplicate the system’s success.
Learning and following the rules above will help you follow the rules of your system, and that will help you stick to them.

source :  Written by Tom Gentile

If someone should concentrate on one currency pair in their forex trading is a fundamental question that needs to be addressed and matched to your trading style before you are going to be successful. My gut feeling is that the shorter the timeframe you use on your charts to make trade decisions, the lower the number of pairs you should trade. Let's get into the details:

You can be successful trading one pair

Many Traders are successful trading just one pair. The advantages of trading one pair include getting to know how one currency pair moves better, less to concentrate on when trading, which in turn leads to less distraction. One great example of a trader who is successful trading only the GBP/JPY is NickB at the Forex 4 Noobs website. By only trading the GBP/JPY using his scalping strategy, he has averaged over 100 pips profit every week for a year. I really like his site and love to use his trading for newbies as a simplistic approach to becoming successful.

Many traders do not like to trade one pair because their trading style doesn't get them into trades as frequently enough as they would like and they feel like they are missing out on the action. I call these people over traders and most of them will not be successful at all in the long run. I personally like to only trade one pair when I am trading with my 1 minute scalp system that I am develping right now. It moves to fast to look at too many charts at once.

You can be successful trading multiple pairs

My major trading style is one that only presents trades at most 5-12 times per week. Considering the low frequency at which this trades, I can successfully monitor all of the major pairs and many of the crosses at one time to look for the best entries and highest probabilities for what I think will be great trades. I don't trade all of these pairs at once because I am impatient. I merely can do this, and I have test my success to make sure I am not over trading.

As many of you know I mostly use 1 hr charts for my overbought and oversold trades, and I also look at the 1 day charts to see if there is any price resistance in the area that I should be aware of before entering. This goes right along with my idea that the longer the time frame, the more pairs you can trade.

Advice for new traders trying to decide which pairs to trade

My personal trading experiences were with every currency pair. In the beginning I think new traders should learn as much as they can about every pair. As you build a trading style that is consistent, you will learn that there are certain pairs that just don't play nice with your trading goals. I have only recently even strarted looking at scalping in my trading, and this is after years of trading much longer time frames. I am now concentrating on a couple of the majors with low spreads for short scalps, but really never more than one at a time to avoid hasty trades and confusion.

And I don't think I even have to say that new traders should not be trying any of these strategies with real money. It's much better to lose all of the money in a demo account a couple of times, than it is to try to tell your wife where all of that money went. Learn from listening to other traders, trade on demo, become humble, then start your journey. You'll thank me later.

These questions are probably familiar to you:

    How long do you think it will take to grow an account from $1,000 to $50,000?
    How long before we can quit our job?
    How long until we can make $20,000?

You probably notice a theme to all these questions:; money. Let’s face it the vast majority of people are attracted to Forex for the money. Forex can make you money. It can make you a lot of money, but it will not happen fast.
Reality Check

I am sure you already know that Forex is not a get rich quick scheme. Many people out there spout that line. However, what many people won’t tell you Forex trading is a career. And as with any career it can take a long time to master Forex. So, if you are considering Forex you need to ask yourself two simple questions:

    Do I have the passion needed to take on a new career and become successful?
    Do I have the patience needed to get through the bumps in the road to succeed?

If your answer is no to either of these questions perhaps Forex isn’t for you.

Getting Rich Slow

 I have yet to meet anybody who has gotten rich fast in Forex. I am not saying that it is impossible. What I am saying is that the vast majority of successful traders get rich slowly. Becoming a successful Forex trader breaks down into five steps:

    Learning the basics
    Planing & Preparing (write a proper trading plan and money management plan)
    Developing a trading method
    Testing your trading method
    Tweaking your trading method
    Nailing down your trading psychology.
    Getting rich!

Most new traders want to jump from step one to step five in the space of a few months. Realistically, you will have to go through each step to succeed and it will take you some time. So I am sorry to be the one to tell you this but Forex is very much a get rich slowly game. Some good news though is that Forex4Noobs provides a free video course that will guide you through step two “Plan & Prepare”. Forex4Noobs also has a fun and interactive forex education section that will help you with step one “learn the basics”.


Well the fact is that most people do not get rich quick in any career or business. So giving up on Forex because it will take you time to achieve success is silly. I personally feel that the best thing about Forex is the freedom it provides. Unlike most careers, once you become consistently profitable in Forex you can scale back your chart time.

Over the past two months, I set up a stop watch and timed the total amount of time I spend trading per week. I found that on average I spend six hours per week trading. Compare that against the 8-12 hour work day most people are forced to do these days. Forex is the obvious winner.

Forex certainly does have a lot of benefits and it can turn your life around. However, please do not fall into the trap of thinking that you will be rich within six months.

To succeed in this business you need a sound method (notice i did not say system), common sense, discipline and a rock solid understanding that if you do not treat this as a business you have a ZERO CHANCE of long term success. 95 percent of new businesses fail even when the owner knows what they are doing. Do you really think this business is going to work for you after 3 months practice or less?

Whats interesting about this business is it affords the person that chooses to use common sense a way to learn it without losing a ton of money or any for that matter. Below is the outline i used 20 years ago to finally find some success and i have become almost mental about it. To this day any new method im testing or any refinement to existing methods goes thru the same process. Also remember this. small accounts could never keep me focused to be ultra picky about my entries and you will almost surely find the same thing. small accounts = over trading and YOU SIMPLY MUST LEARN TO BE PICKY ABOUT YOUR ENTRIES. Solution? Force yourself to be ultra picky (virtually impossible) or follow the plan below while your saving.


A Very Nice Thread, we can learn a lot from there Good Luck


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=2331

In Investment Psychology Explained Martin J. Pring, one of the most respected independent investment advisors in the world, argues that in the revisionist '90s there are no quick, magical paths to market success. Rather, he emphasizes the timeless values of hard work, patience, and self-discipline-and much more. Drawing on the wisdom of creative investors such as Jesse Livermore, Humphrey Neill, and Barnard Baruch, as well as his own experience, Pring shows how to:
* Overcome emotional and psychological impediments that distort decision making
* Map out an independent investment plan-and stick to it
* Know when to buck herd opinion-and "go contrarian"
* Dispense with the myths and delusions that drag down other investors
* Resist the fads and so-called experts whose siren call to success can lead to disaster
* Exploit fast-breaking news events that rock the market
* Deal skillfully with brokers and money managers
* Learn and understand the rules that separate the truly great investors and traders from the rest

Reading Investment Psychology Explained will give you a renewed appreciation of the classic trading principles that, through bull and bear markets, have worked time and again. You'll see, with the help of numerous illustrative examples, what goes into making an effective investor-and how you can work toward achieving that successful profile.

About the Author

MARTIN J. PRING is publisher of the highly regarded newsletter, The Pring Market Review. A frequent contributor to Barron's and other leading investment periodicals, he is the author of The All-Season Investor, the bestselling Technical Analysis Explained, and a number of other books on interest rates, international investing, and commodities and futures.

Traders are told not to use tips to trade from, and that is good advice.  But using tips about trading to help be more successful is a different case altogether.
There is a temptation to discount tips as not providing real value because by their nature they are short and simple.
That type of thinking is a mistake.  A good tip is not an end, it is the means to an end.  It is the spark that makes you think in more depth about a specific aspect of trading.
Here are trading tips, from real traders, who put their own money on the line every day:

                             ——–
If you have to think for more than 5 seconds about how your trade is going to work, then it’s too complicated. Simple is Sexy.
Be contrarian in your thinking when it comes to entries and exits. If you run with the herd you are more likely to get run over by chasing the obvious.
Relative volume is the most important indicator for a chart breakout.
Learn the language…pop open the StockTwits suggested stream and immerse yourself for 6 months in the flow and language – 20 min a day 
Always think about risk first, profit potential second, and remember that you don’t have to know where the market is going to make money.
There are a lot of good stock pickers out there. That is 1 percent of trading. Trade management/position management; that’s the next level stuff that takes you from doing this as a hobby to doing it for a living.
Every stock chart is telling you a story…if you don’t understand the story, don’t trade the stock. 
If you are trend-trading then the base is your friend – stay close to the base and trade around the base selling into extended moves away from the base  (chasing after extended moves is probably the fastest way to blow-out for new traders). 
Don’t just work hard. Work hard to work smart.
Be aware of your risk limits before your trade and play within them. Most trading mistakes come from extreme emotions and extreme emotions arise when a trader  takes more risk than he is prepared to take.
Write out your complete trade idea on paper; pretend your are presenting it to a mentor or trader you admire. If you don’t need a ton of caveats or extra lines and indicators it’s probably a good trade.

It doesn’t hurt to be “right” on market direction but it is far from necessary to be a winner in this game over the long-term. 
Upgrades = potential selling opportunities.  Downgrades= potential buying opportunities.  I find this works when there is no significant news about the stock.
Community is great, but if you want to pay the bills, learn to trade and stick with your own ideas.
Step away from trading when stressed, fatigued, physically ill, or dealing with an issue that has you off-balance mentally or emotionally. 
Know your risk level aka ‘uncle point’ BEFORE you make a trade or investment NEVER afterwards.
Don’t fall into the trap of thinking you are right.  Remain objective.

The market doesn’t care what you think.

Price Action Trumps All. You can improve your trading by just simply paying attention to price action.
Say “nope” to dope and “Ugh” to drugs.
Know your timeframes – a great set-up for an intra-day scalp trade won’t be of any use if you plan on holding the stock for a swing.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
Trading when you’re tired, angry or distracted is a recipe for developing blinds pots and ignoring proper trading signals. 

One can be right on direction 9/10 times and still come out a loser if one cannot manage the downside when one is inevitably wrong. 

It’s the trader responsibility to adapt to the ever-changing market conditions. No strategy will work well in every market.  You must constantly adapt. 

Trade with the trend. Adhering to this one rule improved my trading immensely. 

If you don’t use a wide, 30-minute chart to plan your trend and chop trades, do something better suited to you.”

If you are reversion-to-mean trading then enter on extended moves away from the base (entering too early/close to the base, and getting blown out before the reversal most common mistake here for reversion to mean traders) and sell back into the base. 

Many plan their trade entries but to manage your risk you must also plan your exit and do it BEFORE you trade.
Don’t be penny wise and dollar foolish in choppy markets.
Buy high, sell higher. I know it’s a cliché, but if a stock is hitting a 52 week high or better yet an all time high that means that it is doing something right and Wall Street acknowledges it.  I’ve bought too many stocks on sale or based on valuation that don’t do squat or go lower while waiting on a catalyst.

80% of trading is psychology.

The best way to protect your confidence is to have a strong plan that produces consistent results and cut your losses quickly when your wrong. 
                                                               ——

by: dj_hetick

Banyak Trader dan Investor yang pengen cepet kaya.

Yg investor maunya duduk ongkang2 kaki, untung gede.
Yg trader ogah belajar dan berusaha, pengennya cepet untung.

Klo pun belajar, maunya belajar instant, terus cepet untung, kemudian secepatnya Forex Trading dijadikan pegangan hidup.

Semua yang didapat dengan instant, pasti instant juga ludesnya.

Proses belajar Forex Trading yg benar itu adalah:

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kemudian Rugi....
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kemudian Belajar....
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kemudian Belajar....
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kemudian Rugi....
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kemudian Belajar....
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kemudian Belajar....
.

Demikian seterusnya sampai mencapai kata....SUKSES.... [yang hanya Anda sendiri yang tahu kapan itu bisa tercapai]



GAK ADA YG NAMANYA UNTUNG BESAR TANPA USAHA YANG KERAS..!! -------------------------------

DUDUK ONGKANG2 KAKI TAPI PENGEN UNTUNG GEDE...??? JAUH2 DARI DUNIA DERIVATIVES..!! ------------------------------- 

PROGRAM FIXED INCOME YG BANYAK TERSEBAR DI INTERNET RATA2 90% BULLSHITS...!!! ------------------------------- 

 SITUS2 PENJUAL EA DENGAN KEUNTUNGAN SANGAT MULUK2, RATA2 90% BULLSHITS JUGA...!!! ------------------------------- 

PENGEN CEPAT UNTUNG GEDE, GA SIAP KEHILANGAN DUIT..??? GET OUT FROM THIS FOREX-INDEX-COMMODITY-OPTION TRADING WORLD...!!! ------------------------------- 

UNTUNG BESAR DI DERIVATIVES TRADING 20% PERBULAN, 100% PERBULAN, BAHKAN 1000% PERBULAN ITU MUNGKIN. TAPI MUNGKIN JUGA ANDA RUGI 100% PERBULAN, BISA JADI 500% KARENA ANDA INJECT DANA TAMBAHAN. ATAU........KLO ANDA SANGAT2 BODOH BISA JADI LEBIH DARI 1000% BAHKAN LEBIH DAN ITU AKAN MENGAKIBATKAN ANDA BANGKRUT TOTAL BAHKAN BERHUTANG KE BANK...!!!

GAK ADA YG NAMANYA UNTUNG BESAR TANPA USAHA YANG KERAS..!!
DUDUK ONGKANG2 KAKI TAPI PENGEN UNTUNG GEDE...??? JAUH2 DARI DUNIA DERIVATIVES..!!
PROGRAM FIXED INCOME YG BANYAK TERSEBAR DI INTERNET RATA2 90% BULLSHITS...!!!
SITUS2 PENJUAL EA DENGAN KEUNTUNGAN SANGAT MULUK2, RATA2 90% BULLSHITS JUGA...!!!
PENGEN CEPAT UNTUNG GEDE, GA SIAP KEHILANGAN DUIT..??? GET OUT FROM THIS FOREX-INDEX-COMMODITY-OPTION TRADING WORLD...!!!
UNTUNG BESAR DI DERIVATIVES TRADING 20% PERBULAN, 100% PERBULAN, BAHKAN 1000% PERBULAN ITU MUNGKIN. TAPI MUNGKIN JUGA ANDA RUGI 100% PERBULAN, BISA JADI 500% KARENA ANDA INJECT DANA TAMBAHAN. ATAU........KLO ANDA SANGAT2 BODOH BISA JADI LEBIH DARI 1000% BAHKAN LEBIH DAN ITU AKAN MENGAKIBATKAN ANDA BANGKRUT TOTAL BAHKAN BERHUTANG KE BANK...!!!

Thread ini dibuat menyikapi banyaknya situs2 dan program penipuan berkedok Investasi Perdagangan Berjangka, para Korban yang seringkali berteriak2 kebingungan, dan juga menyikapi sikap calon2 korban dari FANTASTIS-nya KEUNTUNGAN DI FOREX TRADING.!! 

Mohon maaf jika kata2 yang ada terlalu keras dan sedikit bersifat memaki. Ini semua demi kebaikan bersama. Karena gue bukan tipe orang yang akan mengatakan apa yg manis untuk didengar, tapi gue selalu berusaha mengatakan apa yg seharusnya Anda dengar.!

by. dj_hetick™ / Saturday, Nov 27, 2010 / 17:52PM.

Tulisan ini merupakan tulisannya dj_hetick, keren kalau menurut saya, nyeleneh namun real :

Banyak pemula yang kebingungan mempelajari Forex Trading.
Banyak yg beralasan ini-itu.
Klo Anda mau tahu bagaimana proses gue mengenal dan belajar Forex Trading.? Nih gue jawab.


 BUKU..!!!

Jaman gue belajar trading.. tidak ada mentor, tidak ada platform MT4, apalagi Demo Program, tidak ada acuan idola, tidak ada buku forex berbahasa indonesia, tidak ada situs2 forex trading dalam bahasa indonesia, apalagi forum forex trading dalam bahasa indo, padahal bahasa inggris gue masih jelek .

 Buku Forex dalam bahasa Indonesia.??? Hahaha.. BUKAN.
Saat itu ga ada buku yang membahas Forex Trading dalam bahasa Indonesia. Gue beli buku dalam bahasa Inggris semua.

Bahkan awal2nya, gue beli majalah2 forex dari luar negri semua. Gue baca pelan2, gue belajar perkata.. disebelah kiri buku forex berbahasa inggris, di sebelah kanannya ada kamus inggris-indonesia.

Ga punya duit.? Sama, gue juga...
Gue terpaksa pake CC orang laen [dosa masa lalu], untuk beli beberapa buku itu.

Dan yang paling sering, gue daftar di tiap forum atau situs yg akan kasih buku gratis. Entah itu buku edukasi Forex atau bahkan cuma buletin yg isinya tentu saja super rumit buat gue waktu itu. Yang penting buat gue saat itu, gue bisa baca segala hal yg berhubungan dengan Forex.

Alangkah beruntungnya kalian sekarang...
Banyak buku2 forex trading tersebar di toko buku, dan itu semua berbahasa indonesia.

Dan.. kalian masih kebingungan darimana memulai berlajar Forex Trading..???


 MENTOR, TUTOR, GURU
 Mentor.? Tenaga pengajar.? Tenaga pendidik.? Guru.? Hahahaaa... Ga ada itu semua.

Saat2 awal gue belajar forex trading, semua yang ada di sekeliling gue adalah manusia2 berhati iblis... mereka semua cuma tahu cara mencari uang dengan cepat, cari investor, dapet komisi ratusan juta..cuma itu.

Mau tanya siapa klo ada yg gue ga paham...? Lah wong mereka sendiri juga ga tahu apa2.
Mau berguru ke siapa..? Lah wong mereka cuma serigala berhati iblis dan budak uang.
Mau berguru dan tanya2 ke mentor luar negri.? lah wong bahasa inggris gue kacau abis, baca buku forex bahasa inggris aja masih per-kata, mana masih pake kamus.

Dan.. kalian masih kebingungan darimana memulai berlajar Forex Trading..???


 FORUM dan INTERNET

 Haih... jaman itu, mau cari informasi dan pengetahuan soal Forex Trading berbahasa Indonesia.? Mustahil.!!

Mau pake om Google, Yahoo search, MSN, dll...
Ketik aja kata FOREX TRADING... ntar yg keluar berbahasa inggris semua.

Ketik aja VALAS, PERDAGANGAN MATA UANG... ntar yg keluar informasi penukaran mata uang dan cerita2 buruk orang2 yang sudah bangkrut.
Ga ada itu namanya pengetahuan yang bisa dipelajari dalam bahasa Indonesia.

Kaskus.? Hehehee.. jaman itu, kaskus masih sangat terkenal dengan subforum yang "Restricted Area due security policy"

Coba sekarang ketik di Om Google.
Puluhan bahkan ratusan situs dan forum yang menyediakan dan membahas Forex Trading dalam bahasa Indonesia.
Banyak sharing2, tulisan2, dan curhatan dari mereka2 yang sudah lama belajar di bidang ini.
Banyak pengetahuan dasar sampai tingkat expert yang ditulis dalam bahasa indonesia, baik itu di situs, blog, forum, dll.

Dan.. kalian masih kebingungan darimana memulai berlajar Forex Trading..???



 PLATFORM MT4
 Aduhh.. alangkah enaknya saat2 ini, sudah ada platform MT4, sekarang malah MT5, dan banyak platform lain yang menyanggupi ekspetasi kita dalam belajar dan latihan.

Utak atik chart, tarik garis sana sini, tambahin indikator ini itu.

Posisi balance langsung tampil otomatis, posisi margin level, posisi yang terbuka dan sudah tertutup, stop loss dan take profit, semuanya serba otomatis tampil dan terhitung di monitor kita.
Pasang order.? Mau buy sell atau pasang pending order, tinggal klak klik sendiri di laptop.

Mau tau jaman gue awal belajar.? Hahahaa...
Coba tanya orang2 lama di dunia derivatives trading misal #mathaelank.

DIHITUNG MANUAL cuy....pake pulpen sama kertas.

Dihitung balancenya berapa, tahanan lo sampe berapa, duit tinggal berapa, klo open sekian ntar duit sanggup nahan sampe level berapa, klo pasang locking ntar equity tinggal berapa, klo open ntar equity jadi berapa, margin juga jadi berapa.
Semuanya dihitung manual... pake pulpen, kertas, sama kalkulator.

Mau trading.? Sama aja....PAKE TELPON, PULPEN, KERTAS, ama KALKULATOR..haha.

Masih harus teriak2, angkat telpon dulu sama kertas berisi posisi2 kita yang sudah ada sebelumnya di depan mata. Di eja satu persatu ordernya.

Bagaimana klo posisi terbuka sampe puluhan.? Ga bingung tuh.???
Hahaha.... jelas bingung banget..
Beberapa kali dulu gue sampe salah masukin order, karena tiap order harus ditutup dan dibuka manual. Mau likuidasi posisi malah jadi open posisi baru.

Mau utak atik chart.? Di PRINT dulu tuh chart, baru kita garis2 sendiri pake pulpen ma penggaris..hehe.

Dan.. kalian masih kebingungan berlajar Forex Trading..???

 DEMO TRADING

 Duh...ini nih yg paling enak... Kita sekarang bisa pake Demo Trading untuk mulai mengenal, belajar analisa, dll.
Kita sekarang tinggal download platform2 Trading yg jumlahnya puluhan... buka account demo, mulai dah.

Mau tau jaman dulu, mereka yg pengen belajar cuma bisa update harga lewat televisi, baik itu bloomberg dan reuters [untuk yg tajir], dan gue cuma bisa lewat Televisi lokal Indonesia..

Gue amati tiap hari harganya... gue catet di kertas di harga berapa gue masuk, trus gue hitung nominalnya, gue hitung ntar lepas posisi di harga berapa, mau di cut rugi di harga berapa, ntar duit tinggal berapa..

Semua masih pake pulpen, kertas, televisi, ama kalkulator. Sangat2 manual.

Dan.. kalian masih kebingungan darimana memulai berlajar Forex Trading..???


 Sang Maha Kuasa memberikan manusia kelebihan khusus dibanding segala ciptaannya yg lain di dunia ini. Dan itu adalah otak untuk berpikir dan menganalisa, bukan cuma sekedar insting. Kita bukan hewan bung.

Seorang filsafat pernah berkata: "Kemampuan terhebat dari manusia adalah Kemampuan Berimajinasi dan Berusaha Mewujudkannya....! Dari situlah tercipta segala kemajuan tehnologi.!"
----------------------------------------

Inti dari semuanya... Gue belajar dari serba kekurangan, dan dimasa kalian sekarang, gue rasa sudah cukup banyak sarana yg mendukung.

Klo gue bisa, kenapa anda tidak?
Klo anda bisa, kenapa gue tidak.?

Masing - masing Trade Style punya ke unikan tersendiri, risk dan reward tersendiri juga, rule rule yang menbatasinyapun akan lain, sebetulnya tergantung dari system dan aturan tradernya itu sendiri.

Swing Trade atau long term Trade, acuan Risk nya akan ditentukan sedemikian rupa pun rewardnya, target gak mungkin 100 pips per trade, tradernya pun gak nongkrongin chart seharian, range Weekly dan Monthly umumnya yang akan di analisa minimal Daily. Trade dengan swing lebih aman sebetulnya, margin masuk paling besar 5% itupun sudah kebesaran 2% sangat ideal, bulak baliknya harga tidak menjadikan pengaruh besar bagi seorang swing trader, bentuk investasi lebih dijadikan sasaran bagi swing trader.
hasil tentu akan jauh dengan Intraday Trade atau yang Scalpingan, ibaratkan petani yang tanam durian dimana panennya hanya setahun sekali.

Intraday Dan Scalping, Kebanyakan Intraday Trader atau scalper betul - betul mencari pola pola koreksi pada TF-TF kecil, baik itu memanfaatkan retrace, pull back, atau divergence, atau ikut entry kembali ketika trend betul betul telah terbentuk, akurasi entry sangat diperlukan untuk seorang intraday trader/scalper.

Misal: Seorang swing trader akan berani entry posisi setelah dia analisa TF-TF besar, padahal dalam TF kecil misalnya di M1-M5 atau M15, M30 harga ada dalam titik S/R yang jelas akan ada koreksi di TF TF tersebut, masuk market set TP dan SL kemudian tutup chart atau matiin komputer lalu lanjut dengan aktifitas keseharian lainnya diluar trade, paling paling buka chart besok atau lusa atau mungkin 1 minggu kemudian atau 1 bulan kemudian.

Tentu beda dengan Intraday Trader/Scalper, mengetahui batasan pergerakan dalam TF-TF kecil sangat sangat mutlak untuk meminimalkan risk..titik titik entry terbaik akan selalu dicari atau dia hanya akan ikut trend jadi saja ( trend sudah betul - betul confirm ).

SL ketat TP pun hanya sebatas range harian saja bahkan kurang dari itu, gk ada moment yang bagus ya tidak trade, dan rule rule lainnya.

Intraday Trader dan scalper umumnya hasil tradenya pun jauh lebih wow drpd swing trade, karena banyak pola koreksi harga yang dia ikutin walau dengan jumlah pips sedikit namun karena seringnya dia entry ketika momen momen di dapat maka hasilnyapun akan lumayan.

Risk lebih besar dr swing trade, banyakan yang loss dalam bidang ini adalah mereka yang berpola intraday trade dan scalper, seringnya kena SL sebelum harga berbalik lama lama ngurangin margin juga, NO SL tentu terlalu beresiko jika tanpa pengetahuan yang tepat akan pola batasan - batasan dalam setiap Time Frame.

Kecenderungan nongkrongin Monitor jauh lebih banyak frekwensinya, bahkan ada yang gk berani ninggalin PC jika sedang trade. he he he, dan marah marah jika ada yang dirasa mengganggu dia.

Tentukan pola trade style kita, sesuaikan dengan karakter pribadi kita, seorang pemarah gak sabaran, cepet naek tensi saya sarankan jangan intraday atau scalpingan, lebih baik belajar swing trade saja biar gak Stress..!!

apapun pola trade kita baik itu swing atau intraday pengetahuan pola batasan harga sangat - sangat penting..!!!

sukses selalu..

We all know how important it is to find our edge in the markets. Finding an edge could take months even years but once we have acquired such an edge, it is not the end and expecting windfall profits could only be a dream which is as good as wishful thinking. The next step is to work on yourself and develop the right mindset. Here are some tips that can help you Maximise Trading Performance:

Many new Forex traders think that successful traders have successful deals all the time. Most successful traders, as a matter of fact, trade with success rates about fifty percent and seventy five percent. Because of this it also means that they also fail fifty to twenty five pecent of the time.

If you add up all the losses made by a successful trader (in dollar terms) the losses are often much bigger than the gains or losses made by an unsuccessful trader. Therefore successful Forex traders are not only the bigger winners but also the biggest losers (in dollar terms). Trading activity is sometimes much more important to trying to get a hundred percent record at all times.


There are many reasons for this. Good traders have accepted the fact that losing is part of Forex trading. They therefore process and accept loses in a very constructive way. They are not distracted by failures or become emotionally upset. They view their losses as learning experiences and therefore get great value from loses. They also know that a trader's success rate is merely one of the components to a financially rewarding Forex trading career. They know that to succeed it take a balance between many trading skills and factors. These factors include sound money management, a positive and objective trading psychology, how many gains you make on gains, how much is lost on unsuccessful trades.

Using this constructive attitide allows them to trade more often (Not talking about over trading) as they are not distracted by trading psychology challenges such as depression and paralysis. They are also more confident at increasing the number of lots traded based on their past successes.

Successful traders therefore trade more and use more lots. Not only do they make more (in dollar terms) on their winning trades but at the same instance they lose more on their losing trades because their size of of lots are gradually increased.

Unsuccessful traders don't risk as much on their trading or don't trade as much due to their inability to deal with losses positively. This increases their insecurity and gives them a trading inferiority complex. Most unsuccessful traders are so distracted by their losses that they start their search for the Holy Grail over and over again every week.

You can save so much energy and time processing your losses positively. Almost all trading techniques can be made to be profitable by adding a number filters anyway (or reversing the trading direction on unsuccessful systems) so the trading system is the easy part.

Successful trader have a good money management process and a positive trading psychology.

Good traders lose money because it is part of trading (the market will always do what the market will do) and they don't lose any sleep about these loses. How well do you deal with your trading losses?

The biggest difference between successful traders and unsuccessful traders is the ability to manage losses positively.

Statistics prove that more than 80% of traders are not making money from forex trading. So what can you do to ensure you are part of the rare band of profitable forex players?
Ask any pro trader and they'll cite money management as one of the main, if not the key, factors in separating the winners from the losers. So many of that 80% disregard these crucial techniques it would be laughable if it wasn't so sad.
I have been trading for over 10 years and having coached a large number of traders, I have seen that the ultimate cause of failure is the lack of awareness of the 3M’s of ‘Money, Mind and Method&rsquo.
If we distribute the 3M’s on a scale of 10, then:

• Money – ‘money management’ would constitute five parts.
• Mind – ‘discipline and patience’ would constitute three parts.
• Method – ‘technical analysis’ would constitute two parts.

This tells us that the Method — the technical analysis (or fundamental analysis) is the least important part of trading.
But let’s be fair here. It really is not the trader’s fault, since most of the information available says otherwise.
If you purchase a course or a book, they all talk about technical indicators, chart patterns etc., but rarely will you come across a book or course which tells you to concentrate on the Money and Mind.
Most new traders will purchase a book, open the charts, look at the indicators, and buy/sell based on the crossover of the indicator lines or moving averages etc.
What about money management? What about the discipline and patience to prepare a trade plan and follow it? Zilch! Is it surprising that these traders lose money?
As traders we are all here to make money from the markets. But what should be the first priority of the trader?
The first priority of a trader is to conserve the capital. The trader’s capital is his bloodline. Without it, one cannot trade, so preserving it becomes a matter of utmost importance.
Without implementation of proper loss control techniques, a sudden large drawdown can shrink an account to such an extent that the possibility of attaining profitability becomes remote.
A single loss is not only a loss of capital; it also puts a trader two steps behind in the quest to profitability.
This is because the percent gain needed to recover from a loss increases geometrically with every loss.
Table 1 illustrates the concept, and ultimately the importance of controlling the loss of capital.

Therefore a trader must have a money management policy. A money management policy is nothing more than a set of techniques that help a trader minimise the risk of loss, while still enabling him/ her to participate in major price gains. It is probably the most critical aspect of trading and the most overlooked.
A sound money management policy becomes an absolute must in the forex markets, due to the availability of high leverage.
As the popular saying goes “take care of your losses, and the profits will come by itself”.
I want to put down certain facts and some simple rules of money management which would help the trader achieve the desired success.

1. Expect losing trades

It is only natural that when we take a trade, we tend to focus on potential profits than dwell on possible losses. We are usually so convinced that the trade will be profitable, that we tend to ignore the possible losses that would occur should the trade go wrong. One must accept that losses in trading are inevitable, and a successful trader is one who manages and controls these losses.

2. Placing stops

Trading without stops is akin to walking a tightrope without a safety net. As far as possible, one must have stops in the market since this is the only way to control the losses. While this becomes a ‘double edged sword’ since a trader may get stopped out of a trade for no reason, it is still the best ‘safety net’.

3. Stop loss levels

The most important rule is that the stops should never be mere ‘dollar value’ stops, but technically correct stops. Which simply means that one cannot decide on the stop level based on his/her personal risk level. A trader cannot say, “I am going to risk only $50 for the trade.”
The market does not care about your comfort levels; it respects the technical levels. Hence a stop must be at a technical level, regardless of how far it is away from the entry. If one does not follow this simple rule, the ‘comfortable’ dollar values stop would probably get stopped out more often, which defeats the very purpose of placing a stop.

4. Trading is a business of probabilities

You are in control only until the moment of the entry. Once you are filled in the trade, the market will dictate where the price will go. You cannot control this, just like you cannot control with 100% certainty, the amount of profit (or loss).
But what you can control is minimising your losses and protecting gains through a well-defined money management strategy.
A sound money management policy is based on two simple concepts: the proper risk-to-reward ratio, and correct position sizing, where the ‘position sizing’ simply means the amount of capital that a trader should risk on any trade. In this article, we will have a detailed look at the first principle.

5. Risk-to-reward ratio

One must always keep the RR ratio at a minimum of (1:2).
Let us use simple mathematics to understand the concept of the RR ratios.
First and foremost, one must accept that losses are a part of trading and one will have losing trades.
Let’s assume that a trader has a win-loss ratio of 60%.This means that out of every 10 trades taken, a trader would get six winning trades and four losing trades.

The only way to achieve gains in the account is by maintaining the required RR ratio.
Hence, if a trader is maintaining an average stop loss level of 25 pips, then the expected profits from the trade must be at least 50 pips.
Scenario 1: The trader has four losing trades @ 25 pips = (-) 100 pips. The trader has six winning trades @ 50 pips = (+) 300 pips. Net result after 10 trades = (+) 200 pips.
Hence a trader can achieve gains in the account, even after getting four losing trades out of 10.
Scenario 2: Now change the RR ratio to (1:1) and the net result comes to (+) 50 pips, which drastically reduces the gains in the account.
Scenario 3: Now reduce the RR ratio to less than (1:1), say (0.50:1) which is what scalpers tend to do – look for a profit of 10 pips and keep a safe stop of 20 pips.
The net result comes to minus-20 pips. To be honest, if I do not get sizable gains in my account after  10 trades, I am simply wasting my time. To achieve a worthwhile increase in the capital (after spending the time and effort) one must maintain the correct RR ratio. Unfortunately this simple fact is ignored by most traders.
Let us have a look at a trade example, which was taken and managed by incorporating the above mentioned aspects. I have taken a trade example of a harmonic pattern, for the simple reason that these patterns give excellent risk-to-reward ratios.
Figure 1 was a live trade taken in our ‘trading room’ of a bearish Gartley pattern on the daily time frame on EUR/USD.
As seen in the chart (Figure 1), once the pattern confirmed with the formation of point D, we determined the precise entry, stop and exit levels.
• Stop was placed above point D.
• Expected price target was the Fibonacci projection ratio 127.2%.
• The entry is a very crucial factor and was decided on a combination of three different factors.
As one can see in the chart, these parameters gave a fantastic RR ratio of (1:4).
Not only does this give a highly profitable trade, it also enables the trader to take profits in between, thus locking in the profits as the trade progresses.
There are two reasons for mentioning this trade: 1. We can draw a simple conclusion that as traders we must look for techniques/strategies which assure the minimum RR ratio. 2. This trade will be used to explain the concept of ‘position sizing’ in the next article.

by Sunil Mangwani

 Sunil Mangwani has been trading and consulting in the forex market for the last 10 years and specialises in trading with price action and Fibonacci ratios. Sunil has contributed to numerous financial publications, spoken at trading conference around the world and conducts specialised workshops on technical analysis. He is also the founder of “London School of Financial Trading”. For more information, visit www.fibforex123.com

I hope you’re OK reader, after all that must have come as quite a shock. Now you’ve picked yourself up the floor, after reading the article title, which is a fact (well kinda), we’ll dwell on the subject at hand; why do so many lose at trading forex and what are the adjustments so many have to make in order to be in that top forty percent of winners?
OK, before we go any further let’s firstly deal with the 39% of winning traders quote. The fact comes as courtesy of forexmagnates in their redux lite version of a report covering the profitability and performance of USA based forex brokers. The leading figure was 39.1% client profitability from a broker who had circa 24,000 active accounts. There’s also other interesting snippets of information that are worth noting before we move on.
There was a steep fall in the number of accounts and activity levels in 2011 whilst the percentages of profitable traders increased. This could suggest a couple of interesting points, firstly are we collectively getting better at what we do? Or (and it’s not mutually exclusive) have a lot of ‘amateurs’ left the arena, gone back to the day job, leaving the numbers to be enhanced by the superior or more proficient traders? More importantly the number of brokers has shrunk, only the fittest of traders aided by most regulatory compliant firms will thrive.
The US retail forex industry is now showing obvious signs of slow down, the number of non-discretionary retail forex accounts held with US based reporting brokers down to record 97,206, the lowest count reported since Q3 2010 when first such report was released. The extreme regulatory climate has made it extremely difficult for American brokers to attract new clients. However, out of the top ten forex clients listed the lowest recorded level of profitability was circa 32%.
It’s fascinating how many of us would receive a paradigm lightening bolt to our pre-conceptions when hit with the kind of figure that led this article. I’m not alone in taking ‘at face value’ some of the data and assumptions that come our way as forex traders. Instinctively I ‘knew’ that the unsubstantiated figure often hurled around trading forums; that only 10% of traders are profitable, was nonsense.
Having enquired at director level and read a comprehensive investors intelligence report, the reasonable figure for success was estimated at 20%, double the previous assumption, but 39% certainly took many by surprise the first time it was published, even more so that the top ten USA brokers have clients enjoying a 32% success rate. There is, however, a caveat, my twenty percent figure includes spread betters who could in theory be skewing the data due to being much worse traders (en masse) than pure play forex traders, a theory worth examining at a later date.
A question often raised by these type of success stats is “are a tiny percentage of successful traders distorting these figures?” But generally percentages, averages and the distribution of random data doesn’t work like that, and we should already know this being traders. If circa 40% of trades are profitable then the figure for the percentage of actual traders being profitable will be fairly close to that number.
In the first paragraph we posed the question why are so many traders unprofitable? Well armed with this new information I wonder if that assumption shouldn’t be examined in more detail. Firstly, out of the circa 97,000 live accounts held in the USA roughly one third are profitable, now not all of these account holders will be full time dedicated sole occupation forex traders, some accounts would be used as ‘punting’ accounts, folk who bet as opposed to trade (and we can save the obvious cerebral discussion on the difference for another time).



It’s impossible to gauge that breakdown of actual numbers of profitable traders from the information and data, but a figure above 50% would be a fairly safe bet and let’s just take our logic a stage further; in order to be full time, (for some time), the vast majority would have to be profitable, otherwise they’d simply give up the job. It’s interesting to note the further away we’re moving from this fantasy 10% figure the more we analyse a small piece of hard (audited) data.
There’s another aspect to this debate on success that’s also worth mentioning, perhaps supporting the view that FX is the best environment to trade in. If the wider trading success figure is closer to 20%, but the top ten USA FX brokers’ clients are all above 32%, then are we being delivered an obvious message there? If you want to enhance the probability of being a profitable trader then trade FX over and above equities, or indices and only consider using (dare I say it) an ECN/STP broker such as FXCC.
Here’s my own take on a more human level so to speak; I refuse to accept that anyone who has gone through my pain barriers over the past five years or so, who has gone to the extremes of discovery I realised was compulsory in order to become a consistently profitable forex trader, wouldn’t ultimately be successful and by successful I’d suggest a metric of taking a regular and reasonable salary or investment return of the forex market. And as I’ve stated on numerous occasions unless you attack our ‘forex challenge’ full time you’ll never ‘kick off the shoes’ and trade part time in a laid back fashion, that’s a luxury that only comes from experience.
Back to the question posed in the initial paragraph; “why do so many lose at trading forex and what are the adjustments so many have to make in order to be in that top forty percent of winners?” I’ll leave you with six reasons and please feel free to join in on the blog with your own suggestions or additions. Now I’m not about to ‘eulogise’ on the reasons and of provide solutions, it’s a straightforward list and there’s no riddle, the answers are there, the solution evident.
But firstly a recap, if close on forty percent of traders are successful then success as a profitable forex trader may be more in reach than you’d first envisaged. And that one figure, far higher than most would have anticipated, should be heralded as encouragement for fledgling traders.
Six Reasons For Failure

• Low start up capital
• Failure to manage risk
• Greed
• Indecision – doubting the plan
• Trying to pick tops or bottoms
• Refusing to be accept losses

Theorynya dan bla bla bla bla nya sih iye "No Fear No Greed", Let The Profit Runs" dan bla bla lainnya, Ketika harga bergerak sesuai analisa biarkan Hitting The Target atau bagi Trader yang biasa berpola swing arahan begini SL disini, laukan Pending Order disini, atau bahkan ada yang tanpa SL hanya Target saja, he he he.
Saya sangat yakin betul pola pola trade di atas dilakukan oleh trader yang punya margin pas pasan atau tidak terlau besar, artinya tarolah trader tersebut punya margin 10-100K misalnya gak mungkin dia trade pola begitu, pasti trader tersebut akan hanya entry dalam area area tertentu yang sesuai dengan technical dia ( bagi technical Trader ) atau betul betul menunggu News ( bagi yang fundamentalis Trader).

"Beda Balance Beda mental" dan tekanan phsycology..he he he saya yakin itu, seorang trader yang punya entry 1 op = di atas 5 lot misalnya gak akan sama dengan trader yang entry dengan 0.01, atau 0.25 atau di bawah 5 lot. he he he.

Saya Percaya ada trader yang bisa bikin 100% dalam 1-2 hari saja, tapi sayapun yakin Trader tersebut melakukannya dengan balance sedikit, hingga trade jor2an, atau kontes di demo, atau trade demo, jika beliau trade beneran dengan margin/balance gede gak akan begitu, mentalnyapun akan lain.

Yang punya entry lot unyil mentalnya lain dia akan berani hold posisi bahkan floting minus, dengan berbagai theory berdasarkan analisanya trader tersebut, Sementara Trader yang entry dengan lot gede -10 saja sudah ngos ngosan, +10 saja sudah gatel, bahkan bisa jadi sudah di closed dengan berbagai pertimbangan dari si trader itu sendiri.

Belakangan saya sendiri menyikapi Trading saya begini: "Jika untuk kejar analisa ( untuk memantapkan technically knowledge ) ya saya gunakan satu acc khusus op lot unyil, bolehlah TP jauh2, namun TIDAK DALAM INTRADAY, ngeri gan..deg degan dan rasanya lain.."biarin dah 1-2x trade sehari cukup" chart selalu kosong jika TIDAK TRADE, gak ada PO PO an, hanya entry ketika PA ada dalam kondisi kondisi tertentu saja, ( ada dalam area entry menurut technical saya pribadi dengan risk ratio yang terukur )., targetpun gak pernah lebih dari range harian 1/2 bahkan hanya 1/4 range harian satu pair saja sudah alhamdulilah banget, perkara harga selanjutnya bisa break pivot harian, kemudian lanjut melebihi target saya, dsb ya sudah gak apa2 rejeki saya segitu saya syukurin ( dalam Intraday )

Intraday no more than 2 position, he he he 1-2 op saja udah cukup bahkan 2 opun terasa kebanyakan, lol, kalau swing saya bisa menempatkan 5- bahkan 10 op variasi target tutup chart mau harga jalan ke sana atau ke sini gak peduli..toh "Nothing To Loose" lah kasarnya begitu..pertimbangannya :

1. Harga gak selamanya ada di batas bawah atau atas, pasti akan ada koreksi "hanya perkara waktu saja". apalagi untuk swing Trade yang saya gunakan, analisa D1 dan W1 TF setidaknya di H4, lalu apa yang harusa saya tungguiin/Tongkrongin komputer he he he, yang ke:

2. MM saya terarah, Margin/Balancepun gak banyak-banyak amat, jelek jeleknya jika harus MC ya gak akan ngerugiin siapapun toh balancenya kecil , lot entry terukur, jadi ya nyante aja ninggalin op-op tersebut untuk 1-2 bulan bahkan lebih dari waktu-waktu tersebut, mungkin lebih cenderung ke investasi kali ya..ceileh gaya.

he he he "judulnya swing trade kok op ditungguiin gan" =)).

"lebih baik gak Trade jika gak ada moment-moment terbaik dalam intraday" gak pernah maksaiin untuk trade, kebawa nafsu gatel tangan untuk entry, market buka 24 jam x 5 hari kerja ini banyak waktu nyari momen terbaik, mendingan cari titik terbaik toh hasil tradenya bisa lebih dari swing trade walau cuman 1-2x entry saja. "Intraday saya tidak hanya berinvestasi uang, namun juga waktu, maka ogah ah punya floating minus apalagi floting minus gede - gede".

By Jeremy Wagner, Lead Trading Instructor
There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Over the next couple of minutes, we will explore what the difference is between these two types of traders and which pieces of information they tend to look at.
Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis involves assessing the economic well being of an entity, not taking into account its price movements. For traders in the stock market, they would take a look at the company’s earnings, expenses, assets, and liabilities. Fundamental traders will use those data points to determine the health of the company. If their economic well being is trending better as their company’s earnings and balance sheet is growing, then fundamental traders may buy the firm’s stock in anticipation of demand growing for that firm’s stock.
We have similar data points in foreign exchange, except for the whole economy rather than a specific company. A fundamental forex trader will analyze the country’s inflation, trade balance, gross domestic product, growth in jobs and even their central bank’s benchmark interest rate. By assessing the relative trend of these data points, a trader is analyzing the relative health of the country’s economy and whether to trade the future movement of their currency.
Technical Analysis
Technical analysis involves pattern recognition on a price chart. For equity traders, they will analyze the price of volume of the shares traded on the exchange. If prices are moving higher on increasing volume, traders will see the demand for shares of that company’s stock and buy.
Traders may also look for price patterns on the chart like triangles, flags, and double bottoms. Based on the pattern, a trader will determine the entry and exit points for the stock. A technical trader is not as concerned about why something is moving because the trends and patterns on the charts are their signals.
Forex has many of the same technical tools that are used in stock trading. A technical forex trader will assess the price action, trend, support and resistance levels. Many of the patterns used in equities trading are also traded in foreign exchange including those noted above.
Additionally, the indicators and oscillators added to a price chart are very similar between the stock and foreign exchange markets. Moving averages, Bollinger Bands, MACD, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and stochastic tends to be some of the more common tools in a technical traders tool box. This is a result of the indicators ease of use and clarity of signal it provides.
Technical analysis does not include ‘black magic’ that many fundamentalists claim. Getting started in technical analysis can be done quickly by assessing the direction and strength of trends. After speaking to thousands of people in our webinars, seminars and twitter, my observation is that trend technical analysis is integrated into most facets of trading. Traders will use the trend analysis to help them determine which pair to trade and the direction to trade it.

(Created using FXCM’s Marketscope 2.0 charts)

Above is an example of how a technical trader would notice this 6,000 pip trend where the AUD is very strong relative to a very weak EUR (which is why the rate is moving down). A trader would trade in the direction of this trend by selling the EUR/AUD pair (selling the EUR while simultaneously buying the AUD).
In conclusion, there are two common types of analysis (fundamental and technical). Most traders use a combination of both when making their trading decisions of which currency to trade, when to enter, and when to exit.

Hanya Sekedar Sharing..tiada maksud menggurui apalagi sok sok an karena pada dasarnya sama saya juga belajar dan akan terus belajar.

Semoga saja bermanfaat buat saya khususnya dan anda yang kebetulan membaca tulisan saya ini. Pada dasarnya 3 Hal ini jika menyatu dalam diri kita insya alloh berhasil:

1. Niat
2. Ilmu
3. Modal

Punya "Modal" banyak tapi gak ada ilmunya, Trade misalnya ya akan amblas, punya Ilmu ada, Modal ada walau sedikit tapi gak niat juga gak jalan, kenapa Niat ada di awal..?? segala sesuatu jika diawalin dengan niat yang kuat insya alloh akan ada/kelihatan hasilnya misalnya walau modal belom ada Ilmu belom punya karena niat yang kuat akan terus berusaha belajar belajar dan belajar, modal bisa toh dengan trade gretongan dulu atau latihan Trade dengan demo dsb dsb.

"Segala amalan tergantung Niat"..dalem ya kalau dikaji ditelusuri..dan ingat diangkatnya keutamaan manuaia oleh Allah SWT oleh 2 hal : kesatu Iman (dengan segala aspek keimanan dan aplikasinya) , kedua Ilmu, dan itu sudah janji dari Dia Yang Maha Karim, kemudian untuk menjaganya dimana kita sudah berhasil adalah dengan Syukur biar ni'mat hasil susah payah belajar tadi tidak dicabut lagi oleh Allah SWT, malahan akan ditambah kenikmatan tersebut jika kita terus beryukur.

Jadi "niat yang kuat harus kita punyai setelah kita menentukan pilihan untuk menjadikan trading sebagai syareat mencukupi kebutuhan hidup "Trade for Live" lah gayanya mah, siap dengan segala resikonya..

Kemudian cari belajar dan belajar terus belajar ilmunya, dan saya yakin modal mah akan ngikutin.

Saya punya satu contoh case ini nyata, ada seorang teman di Bali sana, dia sudah Niat, terus cari ilmunya belajar dan belajar trade di demo..lalu suatu saat dia ketemu seseorang di Bali sana kebetulan orang berada tuh bule dari Amrik, dia sodorin portfolio Trade demo dia ..he he he "Demo Loh"s i Bulepun tertarik dan mau jadi investornya sampe sekarang sahabat kita ini jadi Fund Manager pegang Acc beberapa orang dari luar semua..

Saya gak akan cerita gimana pahitnya dia ketika belajar dan membangun itu semua hingga kini sangat kelihatan hasilnya, namun hal tersebut bisa jadi contoh buat kita bahwa apapun itu dengan Niat yang kuat insya alloh...

Percuma mas Bro tanpa Niatmah trade jadi ngasal.."Acc kita adalah ladang kita" gak makan kita kalau gak dirawat maximal, entry ngasal, Trend gak dibaca, dsb dsb.

Ingat Loh mas Bro 95% yang lari ke dunia ini GAGAL..:D


Wassalam

Sukses


Hasil Trade di AGEA tadi Jum;at malem ketika JPY Koreksi:

The Holy Grail is often referred to in trading circles as the perfect trading system; the perfect conditions or indicator that will guarantee success in every trade you enter. All traders at some stage undertake the search for the Holy Grail whether it is consciously or subconsciously.

The reality of trading is that there is no such trading system in existence. It never has existed and never will. The fact that some software packages label an indicator the ‘Holy Grail’ only serves to whet the appetite of some people further and arouse their suspicion of what it could be and how they will find it.

It is also widely accepted that your own psychology or mindset is the largest single determinant of your trading success followed by your ability to manage risk. The small remainder of the ingredients to your trading success is your system which includes your entry signal.

When most traders start trading, they spend most of their time on developing their entry conditions. They will learn about various technical indicators, trends and chart patterns, and how they can be interpreted and applied to their trading.

In his book ‘Market Wizards’, Jack Schwager interviews numerous profitable traders in the United States. There is an interesting observation to be made about most of them. Often Schwager asked if they were to start trading again, what would they do differently.

Many answered that they would not have wasted as much time initially on their entry signals and they would have rather spent that time concentrating and developing their risk management rules and working on their own mindset or psychology.

When trading does not go well for most traders though, they begin to wonder what part of their entry conditions is failing them. Thoughts like is it the data they are using, the software, should they use different moving averages like weighted or exponential, or look at hourly data.

It is obvious that entry conditions are a necessary part of any trading plan but their importance is often overrated. Numerous texts have been written about various entry signals yet not enough focus on what is really important to trading.

This may not help the beginner who naturally assumes that their entry signal is the most important part of their trading plan and therefore they shall spend most of their time developing that.

Unfortunately some traders who have looked for the Holy Grail try to lay the blame for their lack of success on external factors. It might be the software they are using or the new entry signal they acquired from reading a book, but at the end of the day they should look no further than themselves.

Successful traders have numerous personal traits in common. They are focussed, disciplined, passionate, and are totally committed to their trading. They are humble and always prepared to learn from their mistakes. The Holy Grail of trading has never existed and never will.

Dunia perdagangan berjangka alias Future Market dengan produk seperti Forex, Indeks Saham, Komoditi dan Optionnya, keberhasilan dalam pengelolaannya/transaksinya itu sangat bergantung dari salah satu faktor yaitu PSIKOLOGI broker atau trader, selain faktor kemampuan ANALISA dan STRATEGY TRADING.

Banyak orang terkecoh karena berpikir apabila kita sudah menguasai analisa dengan berbagai macam Indikator, yakin bisa berhasil. Padahal faktor yang satu ini sangat berpengaruh terhadap tingkat keberhasilan kita dan yang lucunya lagi hal ini tidak disadari oleh karena telah menyatu dengan si pelaku dan terbentuk sebagai KARAKTER.
Banyak buku yang sudah diterbitkan dan menjadi literatur/referensi yang membahas masalah Dampak Psikologi terhadap trading. Beberapa literatur menyarankan supaya porsi psikologi tidak lebih dari 20 % dan logika ( analisa ) lebih dari 80 % dalam pengambilan keputusan, namun pada prakteknya keadaan ini sering berbalik tanpa disadari. Dan hal umum disini biasa terjadi yaitu PENYESALAN DATANG BELAKANGAN. Kalau sudah terjadi dan baru disadari apa boleh buat nasi sudah menjadi bubur.

Contoh sederahana adalah “Menunda-nunda mengambil untung ( Taking Profit)”. Ini hampir selalu terjadi pada saat seorang trader dalam posisi untung padahal seharusnya ada Besaran Target Untung. Dengan berharap siapa tahu masih bisa bertambah besar maka dia menunda dulu mengambil untungnya dan apabila ternyata harapan tersebut terlaksana maka akan semakin PD si trader bertahan/menunda. Tetapi justru pada saat harga berbalik arah, disini peroalan akan menjadi Dilema. Yang pasti keuntungan yg ada sudah berkurang, jika diambil sekarang siapa tahu bisa kembali lebih besar, dan apabila tidak diambil sekarang nanti malah tambah mengecil lagi keuntungannya. Dalam keadaan dilema seperti ini harga sudah bergerak kemana-mana tapi tidak mengambil tindakan apapun sehingga keuntungan yang tadinya ada sekarang telah berubah menjadi Rugi.
Jangan sampai nantinya terfikir atau terucap "Coba gue ambil tadi ya dah profit kan mayan"

Begitupun keadaan sebaliknya yaitu pada saat posisi mengalami kerugian menunda-nunda proteksi atau cut loss, waktu kerugian masih dalam jumlah kecil cenderung disepelekan bahkan biasanya diiringi dengan harapan pasti ada pembalikan harga nantinya. Tetapi pada saat kerugian mulai membesar maka kondisi dilema itu muncul kembali dengan pertimbangan kalau dibiarkan nanti bertambah besar dan sebaliknya kalau diprotek atau sekaligus Cut Loss nanti harga berbalik lagi akhirnya sayang sekali. Sama seperti keadaan diatas tadi, harga sudah bergerak kemana-mana tetapi belum ada tindakan apapun yang dilakukan dan ini berakibat membengkaknya kerugian yang ada. Keadaan seperti ini menggiring orang terjebak dalam situasi MAJU kena MUNDUR kena.


Alkisah tentang perdagangan berjangka yang rugi sering sekali kita temukan dibeberapa blog yang ditulis oleh kebanyakan Investor, bahkan ironisnya terkadang menuding salah satu perusahaan pialang sebagai penghabis uang dan bahkan ada yang merasa dirinya diperdaya ataupun ditipu. Kalau ini memang asumsinya benar seharusnya persoalan ini menjadi domain kepolisian karena adanya unsur pidana, bukan hanya menulis uneg-uneg di blog saja.
Namun kenyataan ini tidak bisa dipungkiri karena ini adalah bisnis yang dapat menguntungkan dan juga dapat menimbulkan kerugian. Pertanyaan muncul selanjutnya adalah bagaimana caranya bertransaksi sehingga menimbulkan kerugian yang sangat besar ????. Ini adalah pertanyaan yang menggelikan jikalau yang bertanya adalah yang menjalani atau yang melakukan transaksi ini sendiri. Karena secara logika sangatlah lucu jika seorang pembalap tergelincir di sirkuit kemudian mempertanyakan kepada timnya, kenapa bisa jatuh. Lebih lucu lagi kalau bertanyanya kepada penonton balapan. Jika si Pembalap menjelaskan sebab kejatuhannya, pastilah selalu menyalahkan faktor-faktor pendukungnya ya sirkuit yang licin, ban motor kurang cengkraman dll, akan tetapi si Pembalap tidak akan mau mengakui secara jujur bahwa itu memang kesalahan dia sendiri. Biasa umum BELA-DIRI alias ngeles.
Kesalahan yang paling sering dilakukan oleh Broker dan Investor adalah berani mempertahankan posisi transaksi yang salah/floating loss ( RUGI ) atau biasa juga disebut melawan arah harga, sepanjang dia melihat cadangan modal yang tersimpan masih cukup kuat untuk bertahan, bahkan mungkin mau menjadi Juara Bertahan. Padahal semua mereka tahu betul cara-cara memperkecil resiko tetapi sama sekali tidak dilakukan. Ibarat pembalap yang pantang memakai REM dalam arena dan anda pasti tahu betul nanti apa akhir dari ini semua. Mereka tahu yang namanya STOP LOSS, LOCKING / STRADLLE ada biasa menyebut HEDGE, tetapi itu cuma ada dalam teori. Disadari atau tidak, egoisme Trader / Investor yang diadu melawan arah harga pasar dan anda tahu yang korban adalah MODAL Investor sendiri. Maaf kepada anda yang Fighter sejati, kembalilah ke jalan yang benar !!!!!.
Pertanyaan selanjunya, ” KAPANKAH DIA BARU BERTINDAK ???”. Tindakan nanti mereka lakukan pada saat dia sudah merasa terancam karena modal sudah mepet, pembalikan harga tidak kunjung terlihat, yang punya modal sudah marah-marah dan dia sendiri sudah frustasi dan malu pada diri sendiri. Karena bertahan tapi sangat tanggung dan harus kalah pula. Jadi bukan bisnis yang jelek atau perusahaannya yang macam-macam, tetapi terpulang kepada oarng yang menjalaninya.