From Library Journal

From the Publisher

An eminent futures trader explores crucial factors in the markets that most experts overlook--time, volume and open interest--and describes little-known indicators to profitably track them. Covers all the popular technical approaches to futures, options and stock markets including Elliott Wave, oscillators, moving averages, Market Logic, point-and-figure charting. Explains why most traders sabotage themselves and how to avoid doing the same.

Biography

Kenapa Batas..??? bukan Arah terlebih dahulu..??? Batas merupakan hal terpenting yang wajib diketahui oleh setiap retailer, trader atau investor, Dan akurasi akurasi batas-batas itulah yang akan dicari cari oleh setiap trader, dari Mulai Time Frame terbesar di Chart MH1 hingga TF terkecil M1.

Dalam Setiap TF tersebut akan ada hukum-hukumnya yang mengharuskan si harga terkoreksi setelah dia berada dalam area kesepakatan batas batas di setiap TF tersebut. Maka dari itu Time Frame Tradepun terbagi ke beberapa TF, kenapa coba tidak hanya MH1 Chart..?? atau M1 chart saja ada M5,M30,H1,H4,D1,W1, ya karena ada batas dan hukum dalam setiap TF-TF tersebut. misalkan, Trend terbesar MH1 misalnya, setelah di analisa harga akan bergerak naik, namun jika D1 nya sudah ada dalam batas - batas atas maka bisa dipastikan akan ada Koreksi, sebelum melanjutkan kembali Trend terbesarnya.

Saya Misalkan begini: Kereta Api Parahyangan tujuan Bandung - Surabaya. ( merupakan tujuan akhir/Trend ) jelas di situ akan berangkat dari Bandung ke Surabaya, Batasnya ya Stasion Bandung Gubeng Surabaya.

                                                  Contoh : melihat batas Pergerakan


                                                    Contoh: Trend Sepakat basic MA


Di dalam perjalanannya, dia akan berhenti di Malang, Yogya, dsb, nurunin penumpang yang memang tujuannya hanya sampai malang, atau kota lainnya, lalu naikin lagi penumpang yang akan ke Surabaya juga, masinis bisa saja ganti, isi kembali akomodasi/logistik buat restorka, dll, baru lanjut lagi hingga akhirnya sampai ke Surabaya sebagai tujuan akhir.

Trendpun demikian, setelah kita tahu batas di mana dia akan berheti dulu, kapan lanjut kembali dsb, yang kita butuhkan hanya ikutin saja, kalau memang stop dulu di H1 misalnya, toh pasti setelah H1 selesai dia akan lanjutkan kembali trend di atasnya, ya jangan di lawan.

Arah pergerakan, misalkan menggunakan pola MA dan hampir semua visual indicators menggunakan basic MA, dengan type-typenya, bagi saya pribadi hanya sebagai pemasti saja, kenapa..??? saya misalkan begini, si MA cross UP atau cross down, namun dia bisa saja tiba - tiba bengkok seketika, dan berbalik arah,..."wow ada pelaku pasar gede nih yang masuk"...he he he...padahal harga sudah ada dalam batas kesepakatan untuk koreksi dalam sebuah TF ya koreksi dan MA tersebutpun bengkok tiba-tiba.

Mereka pelaku pasar gede diluar sanapun akan patuh pada batas-batas harga, control dari Bank centralpun berlaku, ketika harga sudah sepakat dalam area batas-batas, karena menyangkut pada stabilitas perekonomian satu negara, hedge and fund, instuisi, atau para seniman pasar ( yang biasa orang bilang spekulan ) akan selalu memperhitungkan batas batas area tersebut....




Good Luck..

* Euro hits 5-year high versus yen, 1-mth high vs dollar
* Euro zone inflation rises, slightly above forecast
* Eases concerns about imminent ECB easing measures
* Yen stays weak, hit 6-month low versus dollar

LONDON, Nov 29 (Reuters) - The euro traded near a five-year peak against the yen and a one-month high against the dollar on Friday after euro zone inflation data eased concerns about deflationary pressures in the region.

Annual euro zone consumer price inflation rose by 0.9 percent in November, slightly more than economists had predicted, while further data revealed the first fall in euro zone unemployment in almost three years.
Analysts said this should be sufficient to ease the European Central Bank's concerns about low inflation and may cause them to hold off from a further interest rate cut as early as next week to follow the unexpected rate cut earlier this month.

"The data shows that from the inflation side there is no urgency for the ECB to do more ... This is justifying the high euro levels we are seeing right now," said Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of currency research at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.

He said the euro may rise a little further but any gains would be limited before the ECB policy decision and news conference by President Mario Draghi next week. He expected the euro to stabilise at $1.35-$1.36 into year-end.

The euro was last up 0.1 percent at $1.3611, near an earlier one-month high of $1.3622.
Against the yen, the euro was up 0.1 percent at 139.23 yen, having earlier risen as high as 139.705 yen, its strongest since the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers' collapse in late 2008.
Traders said they expected the euro to face stiff chart resistance on the approach to the psychological 140 yen level.

However, the yen was expected to continue to weaken on expectations of loose monetary policy in Japan. By contrast, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to begin reducing its stimulus, most likely early next year.
"The downtrend in the yen is definitely still in place ... It is difficult to see why people would be buying the yen, unless there is risk aversion and lower equity markets," said Niels Christensen, currency strategist at Nordea in Copenhagen.

The euro was up nearly 22 percent on the year against the yen. It has risen around 6.5 percent since the ECB unexpectedly cut interest rates on Nov. 7.
A Reuters poll on Friday showed Japanese fund managers in November raised their euro zone bond weightings to their highest level since March 2011.

The dollar also hit a six-month high against the yen of 102.61 yen. It was last steady at 102.30 yen.
Japan's core consumer inflation accelerated to a five-year high of 0.9 percent in October, adding to evidence that it is beating deflation. But this still left Japan with a long way to reach its inflation target of 2 percent, suggesting the BOJ may need to ease policy again next year.

"Dollar/yen can go higher ... Japan needs a trend of a weakening yen," Commerzbank's Leuchtmann said.
Sterling rose to an 11-month high of $1.6375 against the dollar and a five-year peak against the yen after the Bank of England unexpectedly scaled back housing sector stimulus on Thursday.
Traders took the move as confirmation of the BoE's confidence in the economic outlook and of their expectations that the BoE was moving closer to raising interest rates.

 By Jessica Mortimer

Ribuan buruh dari berbagai element dan serikat pekerja, Selasa (3/9/2013) mendatangi kantor Balai Kota Jakarta untuk menuntut kenaikan upah Rp 3,7 juta.

“Kita menuntut upah Rp 3,7 juta sesuai Kebutuhan Hidup Layak (KHL) buruh di Jakarta,” kata juru bicara pendemo, Syamsuri dalam orasinya.
Dalam aksinya mereka meminta agar Pemprov DKI memenuhi tuntutannya itu dan mengancam bila tak dipenuhi akan datang lagi melakukan kasi yang sama dengan jumlah massa yang lebih besar.

Pantaun LICOM, sejumlah polisi pengamanan terbuka ( berseragam) dan Pamtup (pengamanan tertutup, berpakain preman) sudah berjaga-jaga di depan Balai Kota Jakarta. Petugas Lantas juga nampak sibuk di sekitar Jl Merdeka Seletan untuk mengalihkan arus lalu lintas yang mulai macet akibat kasi massa ini.

Seandainya saja para jagoan tersebut mengerti dan memahami analisa di bawah ini , mereka akan mikir lagi untuk melakukan tindakan konyol tersebut, plus sifunya juga akan memberikan masukan masukan yang lebih objective lagi, akan kondisi perekonomian global saat ini yang "hanya nunggu waktu", bukannya jadi kompor.

Tanpa memojokan fihak buruh, namun tuntutannya emang irasionil, mungkin yang kuliah aja akan mikir " ngapaiin kuliah tinggi-tinggi wes jadi buruh aja", tidak pula memandang sebelah mata, karena segala sesuatu berjalan di atas sunatulloh "everything is not for every single person", gak semua orang jadi juragan, gak semua orang jadi dokter, Ir, juga buruh, dsb. Namun apa yang tercipta sekarang semuanya ter set-up di masa lalu, bukan menyesali masa lalu, namun dulu gimana sehingga maaf,..posisi dalam hidup begini, masing masing individu yang tahu.

Untuk standard di Indo 2.4 juta ngirit ngirit sudah cukup saya fikir, masih bisa nabung juga, ya kembali ke pola hidup jawara jawara tersebut.  Hidup layak seperti apa yang mereka pengen. Kalo pengennya hidup kayak orang-orang kaya di Jakarta, main ke mall, hp canggih, makan enak gitu, rokok sehari bungkusan, ya gantilah profesi, jangan jadi buruh pabrik.

"Syukuri yang sudah, terima yang ada Dan yakin pada yang akan datang"

Untuk ente jagoan yang manas manasin tolong ente fikir kedepan, kemungkinan terburuknya, mereka akan jadi korban saja, sementara ente masih bisa ketawa ketiwi,...kasihan..

Kalau mau mogok atau demo ente ente yang jagoan ini jangan ngajak-ngajak atau pake sweeping2an pada mereka yang punya fikiran waras, mau kerja keras, punya semangat hidup, dan bisa bersyukur..

Beneran gak kebayang kalau para investor mindahin investasi mereka, ke luar Indo...ditambah pasca Pemilu....

James Rickards, a top adviser for the Pentagon and CIA, is sounding the alarm that America is on the brink of a global “financial war.”

Currency Wars

During James Rickards’ testimony in from of the Treasury, he unapologetically stated: “Ben Bernanke is more dangerous than al-Qaida.”
“Rival nations and terrorist organizations are developing capabilities in unconventional warfare,” Rickards commented in a Newsmax interview. “Things like cyber warfare, biological or chemical warfare, and now, financial weapons of mass destruction.”

And this “financial war” is a battle America isn’t prepared to win.

Rickards believes that as this conflict escalates, it will “cause oil to skyrocket above $190 a barrel, gold to surge to $3,000 an ounce, and, in its aftermath, it could completely decimate the wealth of millions.”


Rickards’ assessment is not one to be taken lightly. The first two “financial wars” he refers to in the interview led to World War II and the economic stagflation of the late 1970s.

And unfortunately, Rickards isn’t alone in his assessment.

MSN Money commented, “The end game for all this . . . is higher inflation combined with economic stagnation,” and The Financial Times reported that “Japan may have fired the first shot.”

The Voice of Russia warned, “Russia is getting ready to defend itself in the global financial war which is going to break out in the near future.”

So What Exactly Is This ‘Financial War?’

It’s a battle over money . . . also known as a “Currency War.”

In an ironic twist, political figures of each country are trying to depreciate their own currency. In theory, this strategy will give a short-term boost to their own economy, while handicapping foreign countries.

REPORT: Currency War Leads China to Secretly Stockpile Gold

But there are several flaws in this line of thinking.

“The problem is that everybody can't play the depreciation game at the same time: One country's advantage is the others' disadvantage,” according to US News & World Report.

Essentially, currencies around the world — dollars, yen, and pounds — are losing their purchasing power.

We all know this as inflation. In normal times, inflation runs around 3%. But if a currency war erupts, it could easily run at 10% to 50% per year.

Should You Be Worried?

Absolutely.

When a country intentionally tries to devalue its own currency, the very money in one’s bank account loses purchasing power.

Gas prices soar. Groceries get more expensive. And utility bills climb higher every month.

“The real losers in all of this are the innocent civilians,” said Aaron DeHoog, the Financial Publisher of Newsmax Media. “Those who are investing ‘safely’ could lose as much as 50% of their wealth if things get out of control.”

DeHoog should know.

He commissioned his own currency war investigation. In it, his team interviewed Steve Forbes and James Rickards, intercepted cables from China, and even got access to a warfare analysis laboratory in D.C.

Investors got less bullish on gold as hedge funds doubled their short holdings just before prices erased a weekly loss and Janet Yellen pledged to press on with economic stimulus if confirmed as Federal Reserve chairman.
The net-long position in gold slumped 37 percent to 55,456 futures and options in the week ended Nov. 12, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show, the biggest drop since February. Short bets climbed to 54,143, the highest since mid-August, from 26,490 a week earlier. Net-bullish wagers across 18 U.S.-traded commodities dropped 12 percent to 576,224 contracts as investors became more bearish on wheat and cut their silver holdings by the most in five months.
Gold is heading for the first annual loss since 2000 after some investors lost their faith in the metal as a store of value. Global equities advanced to the highest in almost six years last week and U.S. inflation is running at 1.2 percent, half the rate of the past decade. Bullion reached a record in 2011 as the Fed pumped more than $2 trillion into the financial system. Gold rallied as Yellen said Nov. 14 she’s ready to back stimulus until she sees robust economic growth.
“People were feeling very bearish before Yellen’s statement,” said Donald Selkin, who helps manage about $3 billion as the New York-based chief market strategist at National Securities Corp. “Her comments were dovish and can be seen as a postponement to tapering, which is definitely helpful for gold. But, the main reasons why gold has fallen are intact. Inflation is low, and equity markets continue to march ahead.”

Gold Rebound

Futures tumbled 3.7 percent in the five sessions before Yellen’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. Prices rebounded 1.5 percent in the next two days, erasing the week’s losses and capping the biggest two-day rally since Oct. 22. Eighteen analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News expect prices to gain this week, nine are bearish and two neutral, the largest proportion of bulls since Oct. 4.
Gold slumped 23 percent this year on the Comex in New York, heading for the biggest annual loss since 1981. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 commodities fell 4.6 percent. The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities gained 18 percent, while the Bloomberg Dollar Index, a gauge against 10 major trading partners, rose 3.1 percent. The Bloomberg Treasury bond Index lost 2.3 percent.

Central Banks

The U.S. economy and job markets are performing “far short of their potential,” and the Fed will ensure monetary policy isn’t removed too soon, Yellen said. The comments echo other monetary officials working to combat stagnant economic growth. The European Central Bank cut its key rate on Nov. 7 in a bid to prevent slowing inflation. The same day, Czech policy makers said they were intervening in the currency market for the first time in 11 years to weaken the koruna.
Gold rose 70 percent from December 2008 to June 2011 as the Fed expanded its balance sheet through debt purchases, fueling expectations of accelerated inflation and a weaker dollar. President Barack Obama nominated Yellen, the bank’s vice chairman, last month to succeed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, whose term expires Jan. 31.
Investor appetite for the precious metal waned this year as inflation failed to accelerate and the S&P 500 Index of shares reached all-time highs. Global bullion demand tumbled 21 percent last quarter as investors pulled 118.7 metric tons out of exchange-traded funds and similar products, World Gold Council data show.

Inflation Expectations

Inflation expectations as measured by the break-even rate for five-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities fell 14 percent this year.
Global gold ETP holdings slumped 29 percent this year, reaching the lowest since 2010 last week, while more than $64 billion was wiped from the value of assets, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Prices fell 33 percent since reaching a record $1,923.70 in September 2011.
“The danger for gold is it’s in the middle of a significant bear market move, rather than having completed one,” said Michael Shaoul, chairman and chief executive officer of Marketfield Asset Management LLC, which manages $17 billion. “I don’t think Yellen has said anything of any consequence. We all knew she was dovish, and the market had worked out what she would say.”
Billionaire hedge fund manager John Paulson, who cut his gold holdings by more than half in the second quarter, maintained his bet on the metal over the next three months as prices rebounded, government data showed last week. Bullion rose 8.4 percent in the third quarter, the first gain in a year.

Paulson View

Paulson & Co., the largest investor in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded product for the metal, held 10.23 million shares as of Sept. 30, unchanged from June 30, according to a government filing on Nov. 14. Billionaire George Soros took a stake in the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF.
The risk of “high inflation in the future” makes gold a desirable long-term investment, Paulson & Co. has said. The view contrasts with Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Jeffrey Currie, who has said bullion is a “slam dunk” sell in 2014. The bank forecast prices at $1,100 in 12 months in an Oct. 18 report.
Bullish bets on crude oil fell 4.3 percent to 223,733 contracts, the lowest since June, the CFTC data show. West Texas Intermediate fell 0.8 percent to $93.84 a barrel, the sixth weekly decline and the longest stretch of losses in 15 years.

Crude Supplies

U.S. crude-oil stockpiles climbed for an eighth week as output expanded to the highest since January 1989, data from the Energy Information Administration showed. Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, have unlocked supplies in shale formations in North Dakota, Texas and other states.
Speculators turned bearish on copper, with bets on price declines outnumbering wagers on gains by 8,117 contracts in futures and options. That’s the first time investors turned net-short since Sept. 17. Copper futures slumped 2.2 percent in New York last week, the biggest drop since late August.
A measure of speculative positions across 11 agricultural products was little changed at 362,838 contracts, up 0.1 percent from a week earlier, the CFTC data show. The S&P’s Agriculture Index of eight commodities tumbled 20 percent this year.
Money managers held a net-short position in wheat of 47,251 contracts, compared with 19,535 a week earlier. Investors have been betting on price declines for corn since June, and are also bearish on coffee and soybean oil. Cotton holdings fell to the lowest since December and cocoa wagers fell last week for the first time since July.

Record Crops

U.S. farmers will collect a record harvest of 13.989 billion bushels of corn this year, the Department of Agriculture said on Nov. 8. Global coffee output will exceed consumption for a fourth season in 2014, the longest glut in 11 years, the USDA estimates.
“The fundamental issue of oversupply for several commodities is a reality,” said Rob Haworth, a senior investment strategist in Seattle at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, which oversees about $110 billion of assets. “We saw some temporary interest come into commodities because of Yellen, but we don’t think the story has changed. The Fed will have to slow the stimulus at some point.”

First Thank's To the creator, especially, Mladen from TSD, This is a very simple trade strategy, look at the trend with Mladen Stoch's, start it from the higher Time Frame ( Set it up in our minds if it's the biggest trend OB/OS don't fight  !!! ), then take the correction on the smallest TF.

2-3 times trade/day is more than enough, set the TP between 7-12 pips ( Mid Bands or before under/upper Deviation area ) Or Close it manually, place the stop loss under/upper the deviations area.

Patience and Discipline gonna pay you...


Dealing Desk Hates a scalper :D

I am only a passanger, i am nothing, so just keep going all the way with them :

                                          @qas30 AUD_USD_Trade_Archieves

Buruh Mogok Investorpun Minggat


Menanggapi kabar bahwa tujuh perusahaan asal Korea Selatan yang beroperasi di Kawasan Berikat Nusantara akan merelokasi usahanya ke Kamboja, Iqbal pun kembali menyatakan sikap menyayangkan.

Masternya  KSPI Said Iqbal usai konferensi pers menolak UMP DKI Jakarta 2014 di kantor Kontras, Jakarta, Senin (4/11/2013)

Meski demikian, ia ngotot agar perusahaan tersebut mampu membayar lebih tinggi dari upah minimum yang ditetapkan oleh Jokowi.

"Saya juga enggak setuju perusahaan itu hengkang karena kita akan kehilangan kesempatan kerja, pengangguran meningkat," kata Iqbal.

Kok sayang Boss kan Jagoan..???..aneh....wkwkwkw

source: http://bisniskeuangan.kompas.com/read/2013/11/10/1653080/Said.Iqbal.Enak.Aja.Jokowi.Mau.jadi.Presiden


http://www.tribunnews.com/metropolitan/2013/11/02/jika-buruh-mogok-lagi-71-perusahaan-di-cakung-ancam-cabut

It's a very simple trade by using MACD, no peak or bottom positions, because we just follow the trend.

for the MACD I love to use : 30-60-30 (15M), and other settings..

                                                         QAS30_MACD_TRADE
                                                         sample Trade for EUR/USD

NZ/USD Trade Archieves during NFP:


                                                       NZ/USD TRADE ARCHIEVES
                                                        AGEA NZ/USD TRADE ARCHIEVES
                                                    
                                                                Lovely GBP/USD


Got the the system. with some tutorial ( Indonesian Language ) and template here

it's Credited for Jhon Bysu

It was earlier in the morning, I wrote the sample for EUR/USD and now :



                                         


This is just a sample how to make an analysis by using LR_TSF, when the Trend is really strong talking none can't stop it.

Without TSF of course we may use Linear Regression it's self, but it will be different when we put both together.."Forecasting" That's the key..the more simple on your chart the most easier for us, we don't need dozen of visual indicators to make an analysis.

success guys

Update:
 =======
My GBP/JPY Trade :

 “The more gold a country has, the more sovereignty it will have if there’s a cataclysm with the dollar, the euro, the pound or any other reserve currency,” Evgeny Fedorov, a lawmaker for Putin’s United Russia party in the lower house of parliament, said in a telephone interview in Moscow.

( More )



In response to a WSJ headline today, “Gold fades From Investment Picture,” the Russian President announced that dollars were needed in New York. The Russian Central Bank made delivery on 120 Comex contracts by moving the gold to New York and receiving funds for deposit in New York so as not to violate U.S. rules on currency amounts. The Russian delegation to the U.N. opening party needed funds for escorts and booze. Putin assured global financial markets that delivering 12,000 ounces of gold from Russian vaults was a mere dip into petty cash. Seriously, CNBC was all atwitter that central banks were initiating gold sales … all 120 COMEX CONTRACTS. Too bad that the U.N. meetings weren’t in Mumbai for the Russians could have received a $270 premium over the world market price. It’s a major non-story unless tapering is linked with the sale. Maybe Putin really has inside info on Fed intentions.

The Financial Times ran an interesting story today titled, “Troubled Loans at Europe’s banks Double In Value.” During the last four years non-performing loans have risen from 514 BILLION EUROS to almost 1.2 TRILLION EUROS. The report that is cited was done by PwC accountants and predicts increases in the amount due to the “uncertain economic climate.” The report is not overly concerned because global investors seem to be attracted to buying bundles of the troubled assets, as QE programs send investors scurrying for yield. This is exactly what Fed Governor Jeremy Stein warned about in his speech on February 7. The Fed’s aggressive QE program was raising the SPECTRE of financial instability by forcing the market to misprice risk.

The über-low interest rates on high quality debt is forcing lenders to reach for yield by acquiring über high risk “assets.” It will be interesting to see which investors pursue the asset-backed securities of non-performing loans placed on the market by European banks. There may be some Illinois public pension funds will be reaching for the yield. Nothing like a desperate pension fund in need of “juiced returns” to relieve a financial institution of its burdens. Thank you sir, may I have another? If astute investors are the buyers of the distressed debt, low prices will result and European financial institutions will be forced to raise capital or reduce their balance sheets, resulting in further headwinds for economic growth.

TSF, the Time Series Forecast indicator, consists of linear regression measurements using the Least Squares method. Linear regression is a statistical tool for forecasting future Forex market values comparing to past values. TSF tries to forecast the following Forex market value. For that purpose, it defines the trend's upward or downward declivity and stretches those results into the future. For instance, when prices are moving upwards, TSF tries to define the upward declivity of the price compared to the ongoing price and stretch that calculation forward.

The trend is considered down when the Forex market price falls below the indicator, the Trend is considered up when the Forex market price rises over the indicator. Besides, a lot of analysts think that once prices shift above or fall below the indicator line; prices will likely move back to the line. The TSF indicator also defines if a change in direction happened monitoring the ongoing trend.

The Time Series Forecast indicator resembles the Linear Regression indicator with the exception of two important distinctions. One distinction is the default Length input value used for the TSF is much shorter because the plot line is stretched forward. Another distinction is that TSF plots its line forward, to the right of the chart, by the number of bars specified by the Bars Plus input. A larger Length input would not be as trustworthy as a shorter-term length while analyzing price activity and trends and would form a considerably exaggerated plot.

 Read More here


                                           a. EUR/USD with Linear Regression

Linear Regression

Linear regression attempts to model the relationship between two variables by fitting a linear equation to observed data. One variable is considered to be an explanatory variable, and the other is considered to be a dependent variable. For example, a modeler might want to relate the weights of individuals to their heights using a linear regression model. Before attempting to fit a linear model to observed data, a modeler should first determine whether or not there is a relationship between the variables of interest. This does not necessarily imply that one variable causes the other (for example, higher SAT scores do not cause higher college grades), but that there is some significant association between the two variables. A scatterplot can be a helpful tool in determining the strength of the relationship between two variables. If there appears to be no association between the proposed explanatory and dependent variables (i.e., the scatterplot does not indicate any increasing or decreasing trends), then fitting a linear regression model to the data probably will not provide a useful model. A valuable numerical measure of association between two variables is the correlation coefficient, which is a value between -1 and 1 indicating the strength of the association of the observed data for the two variables.
A linear regression line has an equation of the form Y = a + bX, where X is the explanatory variable and Y is the dependent variable. The slope of the line is b, and a is the intercept (the value of y when x = 0).

Least-Squares Regression

The most common method for fitting a regression line is the method of least-squares. This method calculates the best-fitting line for the observed data by minimizing the sum of the squares of the vertical deviations from each data point to the line (if a point lies on the fitted line exactly, then its vertical deviation is 0). Because the deviations are first squared, then summed, there are no cancellations between positive and negative values.

Example

The dataset "Televisions, Physicians, and Life Expectancy" contains, among other variables, the number of people per television set and the number of people per physician for 40 countries. Since both variables probably reflect the level of wealth in each country, it is reasonable to assume that there is some positive association between them. After removing 8 countries with missing values from the dataset, the remaining 32 countries have a correlation coefficient of 0.852 for number of people per television set and number of people per physician. The r² value is 0.726 (the square of the correlation coefficient), indicating that 72.6% of the variation in one variable may be explained by the other. (Note: see correlation for more detail.) Suppose we choose to consider number of people per television set as the explanatory variable, and number of people per physician as the dependent variable. Using the MINITAB "REGRESS" command gives the following results:

The regression equation is People.Phys. = 1019 + 56.2 People.Tel.

To view the fit of the model to the observed data, one may plot the computed regression line over the actual data points to evaluate the results. For this example, the plot appears to the right, with number of individuals per television set (the explanatory variable) on the x-axis and number of individuals per physician (the dependent variable) on the y-axis. While most of the data points are clustered towards the lower left corner of the plot (indicating relatively few individuals per television set and per physician), there are a few points which lie far away from the main cluster of the data. These points are known as outliers, and depending on their location may have a major impact on the regression line (see below).

Data source: The World Almanac and Book of Facts 1993 (1993), New York: Pharos Books. Dataset available through the JSE Dataset Archive.

---

Outliers and Influential Observations

After a regression line has been computed for a group of data, a point which lies far from the line (and thus has a large residual value) is known as an outlier. Such points may represent erroneous data, or may indicate a poorly fitting regression line. If a point lies far from the other data in the horizontal direction, it is known as an influential observation. The reason for this distinction is that these points have may have a significant impact on the slope of the regression line. Notice, in the above example, the effect of removing the observation in the upper right corner of the plot: With this influential observation removed, the regression equation is now

 People.Phys = 1650 + 21.3 People.Tel. 

The correlation between the two variables has dropped to 0.427, which reduces the r² value to 0.182. With this influential observation removed, less that 20% of the variation in number of people per physician may be explained by the number of people per television. Influential observations are also visible in the new model, and their impact should also be investigated.

Residuals

Once a regression model has been fit to a group of data, examination of the residuals (the deviations from the fitted line to the observed values) allows the modeler to investigate the validity of his or her assumption that a linear relationship exists. Plotting the residuals on the y-axis against the explanatory variable on the x-axis reveals any possible non-linear relationship among the variables, or might alert the modeler to investigate lurking variables. In our example, the residual plot amplifies the presence of outliers.

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Lurking Variables

If non-linear trends are visible in the relationship between an explanatory and dependent variable, there may be other influential variables to consider. A lurking variable exists when the relationship between two variables is significantly affected by the presence of a third variable which has not been included in the modeling effort. Since such a variable might be a factor of time (for example, the effect of political or economic cycles), a time series plot of the data is often a useful tool in identifying the presence of lurking variables.

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Extrapolation

Whenever a linear regression model is fit to a group of data, the range of the data should be carefully observed. Attempting to use a regression equation to predict values outside of this range is often inappropriate, and may yield incredible answers. This practice is known as extrapolation. Consider, for example, a linear model which relates weight gain to age for young children. Applying such a model to adults, or even teenagers, would be absurd, since the relationship between age and weight gain is not consistent for all age groups.

It.s working for scalp by reading every single levels :



                                M1 LR_TSF

In their bestselling Trade Like an O'Neil Disciple, Gil Morales and Dr. Chris Kacher described their experiences working side-by-side with market legend William O'Neil and how they made a fortune using his original stock trading strategies. Now, in a book that is sure to become an overnight trader's classic, Gil and Chris arm you with a set of proven analysis techniques and trading strategies that can only be described as a quantum leap in the evolution of the O'Neil model and the CANSLIM approach to stock trading.
Frustrated by the sideways markets of the mid-2000s, as well as by what they perceived to be undue constraints inherent in the O'Neil model, the authors spent several years examining hundreds of charts and analyzing thousands of individual trades to see how they could improve on the results they had been getting using O'Neil's strategies. The outcome was a set of powerful techniques for identifying and capturing stock breakouts early in their base and riding them up for maximum profit taking.
Designed to serve as both a clear, detailed introduction to those tried-and-true techniques and the theory behind them, and a how-to guide/workbook to quickly mastering them and making them part of a customized home trading system for optimum returns in all market conditions, In the Trading Cockpit with the O'Neil Disciples:

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Whither the Australian dollar? After a multi-month rally on improved China sentiment and a sharply declining US dollar, the Aussie has been turned away at weekly resistance levels.
Fresh prospects for China growth slowdown, a mean reversion strengthening of the US dollar, and continued problems within the Australian economy could all point to a continuation of a new long-term downtrend, visible on the AUDUSD monthly chart (below).



 or Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) governor Glenn Stevens, the only thing separating the Aussie dollar from a “materially lower” exchange rate is the Fed’s enactment of “tapering” (a tightening of stimulus measures long since hinted at, but not yet enacted).
Given China’s increasingly volatile (and questionable) demand for Australian iron ore and coal, and the RBA’s willingness to take cash rates to all-time lows, “significantly lower” could mean the Aussie settling out at 2010 lows around 0.82, far below today’s 0.95.
If you want a reason for the Aussie dollar’s strength over the last five years, look no further than Chinese demand for Australian iron and coal. More so than any other country, Australia has been the big winner in China’s booming demand for commodities.
Earlier this year, however, China’s shift to what the IMF expects to be permanently lower growth rates finally weighed on Australian miners’ profits and dragged the Aussie dollar lower, to the 0.90 area, after trading above parity with the US dollar for the better part of the last two years.
Rumblings of renewed Chinese growth helped push the Aussie dollar back up to 0.98 this fall. But China’s renewed demand for commodities has a great deal more to do with a rush to restock port inventories at low commodity prices than a true turnaround in industrial production.
As of this writing, dry bulk freight rates have been declining for nine days straight, as Chinese iron ore importers sit on cheap inventory they had rushed to buy during the last two months.
The RBA’s response to Chinese slowdown has been textbook monetary easing. Governor Stevens has cut the RBA’s cash rate to all-time lows of 2.5% in response to growing concerns. Low interest rates are sending already frothy housing prices in Sydney and Melbourne to even riskier levels, however, and the RBA has expressed reluctance to cut interest rates further.
Still, Governor Stevens has moved to talk the Aussie dollar down, saying in essence “surely the taper will come” — a reference to US monetary policy — with the implication that the strong Aussie will find some relief in declining from “unusually high” levels once the greenback strengthens.

While the RBA is well aware it cannot fight the Fed any more than other financial players can, the Fed’s effective decision to taper (when it comes) should mark the “beginning of a return to something resembling more normal conditions” according to Governor Stevens. A tapering Fed will likely make US yields more competitive vs Australian yields, weigh on commodity prices, and give the RBA more or less what it wants: a “materially lower” Aussie dollar, with trajectory potential into the low 80s.
As properly functioning markets act as forward discounting mechanisms, it is also possible the Aussie resumes its big picture downtrend well before any actual “tapering” occurs. The extent of concern over China’s rebound — quite possibly more artificial than real — could further weigh on AUDUSD independent of Federal Reserve actions. Last but not least, economic fallout from an imploding Australian housing bubble, once it pops in earnest, could lead the RBA to get more aggressive in its easing stance.
A multi-month Australian dollar short was one of our strongest trades of the year thus far, as we caught the bulk of the move from $1.02 to the $0.90 level. We are now watching and waiting for potential fresh entry points as the big picture (monthly) Aussie trend looks set to continue.

Bruce Kovner, one of the original Commodities Corp superstars, is hanging up his jersey after 28 years of trading. Via Bloomberg:
Bruce Kovner, the billionaire co- founder of Caxton Associates LP, is retiring from the $10 billion hedge fund, ending a three-decade run during which he traded everything from soybeans to Japanese yen futures and returned twice as much as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.
“After 34 years in the trading business and more than 28 years leading Caxton, the time has come to hand the leadership of the company to a new generation,” Kovner, 66, wrote…
Kovner’s main Caxton Global Investment fund has returned an average of 21 per cent a year since inception, compared with an average gain of 11 per cent including dividends by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. The $7 billion fund had one losing year, in 1994, when it fell 2.5 per cent. Since 1983, the S&P has fallen in five calendar years, including a 37 per cent decline in 2008. The top returns have helped Kovner amass a fortune estimated at $4.5 billion, according to Forbes magazine.
Kovner was also one of the best interviews in the original Market Wizards series.
Some selected excerpts below jump:

On protecting emotional equilibrium:
To this day, when something happens to disturb my emotional equilibrium and my sense of what the world is like, I close out all positions related to that event.

On the first rule of trading:
The first rule of trading — there are probably many first rules — is don’t get caught in a situation in which you can lose a great deal of money for reasons you don’t understand.

On making a million:
Michael [Marcus] taught me one thing that was incredibly important… He taught me that you could make a million dollars. He showed me that if you applied yourself, great things could happen. It is very easy to miss the point that you really can do it. He showed me that if you take a position and use discipline, you can actually make it.”

On allowing for mistakes:
He also taught me one other thing that is absolutely critical: You have to be willing to make mistakes regularly; there is nothing wrong with it. Michael taught me about making your best judgment, being wrong, making your next best judgment, being wrong, making your third best judgment, and then doubling your money.

On elements of a successful trading:
I’m not sure one can really define why some traders make it, while others do not. For myself, I can think of two important elements. First, I have the ability to imagine configurations of the world different from today and really believe it can happen. I can imagine that soybean prices can double or that the dollar can fall to 100 yen. Second, I stay rational and disciplined under pressure.
[Successful traders are] strong, independent, and contrary in the extreme. They are able to take positions others are unwilling to take. They are disciplined enough to take the right size positions. A greedy trader always blows out.

On having a market view:
I almost always trade on a market view; I don’t trade simply on technical information. I use technical analysis a great deal and it is terrific, but I can’t hold a position unless I understand why the market should move.
…there are well-informed traders who know much more than I do. I simply put things together… The market usually leads because there are people who know more than you do.
On technical analysis:
Technical analysis, I think, has a great deal that is right and a great deal that is mumbo jumbo… There is a great deal of hype attached to technical analysis by some technicians who claim that it predicts the future. Technical analysis tracks the past; it does not predict the future. You have to use your own intelligence to draw conclusions about what the past activity of some traders may say about the future activity of other traders.

…For me, technical analysis is like a thermometer. Fundamentalists who say they are not going to pay any attention to the charts are like a doctor who says he’s not going to take a patient’s temperature. But, of course, that would be sheer folly. If you are a responsible participant in the market, you always want to know where the market is — whether it is hot and excitable, or cold and stagnant. You want to know everything you can about the market to give you an edge.
…Technical analysis reflects the voice of the entire marketplace and, therefore, does pick up unusual behaviour. By definition, anything that creates a new chart pattern is something unusual. It is very important for me to study the details of price action to see if I can observe something about how everybody is voting. Studying the charts is absolutely critical and alerts me to existing disequilibria and potential changes.

On trading ranges and price patterns:
…as a trader who has seen a great deal and been in a lot of markets, there is nothing disconcerting to me about a price move out of a trading range that nobody understands.
…Tight congestions in which a breakout occurs for reasons that nobody understands are usually good risk/reward trades.

…The more a price pattern is observed by speculators, the more prone you are to have false signals. The more a market is the product of nonspeculative activity, the greater the significance of technical breakouts.
…The general rule is: the less observed, the better the trade.
On predetermined risk points:
Whenever I enter a position, I have a predetermined stop. That is the only way I can sleep. I know where I’m getting out before I get in. The position size on a trade is determined by the stop, and the stop is determined on a technical basis… I always put my stop behind some technical barrier.”
I never think about [stop vulnerability], because the point about a technical barrier — and I’ve studied the technical aspects of the market for a long time — is that the market shouldn’t go there if you are right.

On the emotional burden of trading: 
The emotional burden of trading is substantial; on any given day, I could lose millions of dollars. If you personalise these losses, you can’t trade.

On imagining alternative scenarios:
One of the jobs of a good trader is to imagine alternative scenarios. I try to form many different mental pictures of what the world should be like and wait for one of them to be confirmed. You keep trying them on one at at a time. Inevitably, most of these pictures will turn out to be wrong — that is, only a few elements of the picture may prove correct. But then, all of a sudden, you will find that in one picture, nine out of 10 elements click. That scenario then becomes your image of the world reality.

On seeking vulnerable consensus:
What I am really looking for is a consensus the market is not confirming. I like to know that there are a lot of people who are going to be wrong.

On stocks vs commodities:
The stock market has far more short-term countertrends. After the market has gone up, it always wants to come down. The commodity markets are driven by supply and demand for physical goods; if there is a true shortage, prices will tend to keep trending higher.

On trading too big:
My experience with novice traders is that they trade three to five times too big. They are taking 5 to 10 per cent risks on a trade when they should be taking 1 to 2 per cent risks.

On the dangers of correlation:
Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading. If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large.

 Agustusan kemaren, agak nyeleneh emang saking keselnya, sedikit bahas tentang buruh yang diperkirakan akan mogok, serta demo untuk nuntut kenaikan upah, akhirnya heboh dan terjadi juga pada bulan - bulan ini....ceileh dapet bocoran dari mana gan..???  he he he,  Tanpa memojokan para Buruh yang maaf menurit penilaian saya pribadi "sangat - sangat berlebihan", hanya sebelah mata yang mereka lihat "Ego Pribadi", yang tanpa pertimbangan maaf kembali "akal sehat"..mereka tidak mempertimbangkan kepentingan kebijakan pengusaha, yang tentu dalam hal ini merekapun profit oriented ketika menanamkan satu investasi.

Kalau begitu bagaimana..??? Yo wes Pindah aja mas Bro....pindahin aja investasinya, tarik, nanggung pindah saja ke negara yang emang aman untuk berinvestasi dan gak neko neko..biar mereka nyaho dan ngerasa hasil dari mengedepankan ego dan kepentingan pribadi yang tanpa akal sehat...he he he.

Gak kebayang jika para investor pindah ke myanmar, vietnam, bangladesh atau yang lainnya, plus tahun depan pemilu lagi...yihaaaaa.....ck ck ck




Aksi mogok buruh yang berlangsung beberapa hari terakhir dengan tuntutan kenaikan upah menjadi Rp 3,7 juta per bulan membuat pengusaha khawatir.
Sebab itu, sebanyak 37 perusahaan telah mengirimkan surat permintaan kepada asosiasi pengusaha agar upah minimum provinsi (UMP) 2014 tidak naik.

Wakil Ketua Kamar Dagang dan Industri (Kadin) DKI Jakarta, Sarman Simanjorang mengatakan, ke-37 perusahaan tersebut berada di Kawasan Berikat Nusantara (KBN).
"Sebagian besar merupakan penanaman modal asing," ujar dia saat berbincang dengan Liputan6.com, Kamis (31/10/2013).

Sarman mengungkapkan dalam surat tersebut pengusaha mengaku tidak bisa lagi menerima kenaikan UMP karena pada tahun lalu upah buruh sudah meningkat hingga 44%.
Pengusaha-pengusaha tersebut pun mengaku berat jika harus menanggung kenaikan UMP di tahun depan. Kalaupun hal itu terjadi, mereka berencana melakukan hal lain seperti memindahkan usahanya ke lokasi yang memiliki upah lebih rendah.

"Kalau naik ya mereka itu bisa benar-benar relokasi dari Jakarta keluar bisa ke daerah lain atau bahkan ke negara lain," tutur dia.

Perusahaan yang mengajukan permintaan perihal UMP tersebut sebagian besar bergerak pada industri padat karya, seperti garmen, tekstil dan lainnya.
Atas permintaan ini, Sarman khawatir jumlah investor di Indonesia akan turun dan mengancam iklim investasi. Dia pun meminta buruh mempertimbangkan permintaan mereka dan lebih memfokuskan memberikan produktivitas yang lebih baik. "Dengan begitu gaji pasti mengikuti naik," tegas dia.

Ketua Asosiasi Pengusaha Indonesia (Apindo), Sofjan Wanandi, mengungkapkan bahwa demonstrasi besar-besaran para buruh di Bekasi pekan lalu membuat sejumlah perusahaan asing berencana merelokasi pabrik mereka dari wilayah Jabodetabek.

Untuk itu, Sofjan mengusulkan perusahaan-perusahaan asal Jepang dan Korea Selatan merelokasi pabrik-pabriknya ke wilayah Jawa Tengah dan Jawa Timur.

"Untuk perusahaan Jepang dan Korea, saya bilang lebih baik mundur sajalah ke daerah Jawa Tengah dan Jawa Timur," kata dia, di Jakarta, Selasa, 31 Januari 2012.

Menurut Sofjan, dampak demo buruh minggu lalu cukup besar, terutama terhadap investasi yang berhubungan dengan labor intensive industry (industri yang membutuhkan banyak pekerja). Selain itu, dampak berikutnya adalah terhadap usaha kecil menengah (UKM).

"Yang ini kita perjuangkan sekarang ini adalah bukan untuk perusahaan yang besar-besar, di mana para perusahaan tersebut masih bisa membayar upah minimum buruh. Akan tetapi, usaha-usaha kecil menengah kita. Itulah yang menjadi masalah utama kita," ungkapnya.

Untuk itu, Sofjan meminta kepada gubernur, khususnya Gubernur Jawa Barat, supaya hal ini (upah minimum buruh) dikecualikan, yaitu UKM dan label investasi industri tersebut. Ini terjadi, karena yang menjadi masalah di negara ini adalah masalah kemiskinan dan pengangguran.

"Bagaimana bisa menekan pengangguran adalah dengan adanya UKM. Begitu juga dengan labor intensive industry, bukan yang capital intensive yang kita utamakan seperti perusahaan-perusahaan besar lainnya," kata dia.

Tidak Mengerti

Sofjan menegaskan, pemerintah tidak mengerti bagaimana upah minimum tersebut,  karena upah itu digeneralisir, di mana jenis perusahaan yang besar dan kecil juga harus membayar.

"Yang kita perjuangkan saat ini adalah yang minta tolong dengan pihak Apindo adalah orang-orang yang tidak mempunyai organisasi dan para pengusaha kecil menengah yang tidak ada insentif," ujarnya.

AGEA atau dulu dikenal dengan Marketiva, dengan platformnya tersendiri, banyak keunikan didalamnya yang memang tidak semirip MT4/5, dengan segala limitasi dan kesederhanaannya namun jika di gali seserius mungkin banyak hal di dalam kesederhanaan dan keterbatasannya tsb yang bisa di visualkan sebagai acuan dasar analisa trade.

Lumayan lama beberapa visual indikatornya saya jadikan bahan dasar analisa trade, bahkan seringnya di MT4 saya kosongkan, hanya menyimpan indikator tertentu saja profit loss info misalnya, karena bahan dasar penganalisaan saya lakukan di AGEA ini.

Pernah terbesit ketakutan "bagaimana yah, kalau AGEA ini ganti platform.." Alhamdulilah sedikit demi sedikit, mulai ada yang bisa divisualkan di MT4/5 dengan mendekati "mirip" yang saya inginkan seperti halnya yang biasa dijadikan sebagai bahan dasar acuan analisa Trade saya pribadi di AGEA.

Memang banyak yang unik dari AGEA ini..


                                          Intraday HI-LO-Basic AGEA Concept


                                          EUR/JPY Trade Archieves


                                         EUR/USD Trade Archieves