What is Stop Loss Hunting?
As you know forex brokers make money when you take a position. They charge you some pips when you buy a currency pair. This number of pips that brokers charge when you buy currency pairs is called spread. Different brokers have different spreads for different currency pairs. Spread is almost the only way that the forex brokers make money.

Good and reliable brokers are happy with the money they make through the spreads BUT there are some scam brokers who are not satisfied with this and want to make more money. Stop loss hunting is one of the ways they use to do that. They have some special robots or hire and train some employees who monitor the clients trades.

When a client takes a position and sets a stop loss and the market goes against the position and becomes so close to the stop loss, the robot or the stop loss hunter employee increases the spread manually to help the market hit the stop loss sooner. For example you take a short position with EUR-USD at 1.3180 and you set your stop loss at 1.3280. You have a short position and to close this position you have to buy. So your stop loss is in fact a buy order. You pay the spread only when you buy. So you don’t pay the spread when you go short. You pay it when you want to close your short position and so you buy.

Ok! Back to our example. You have a short position at 1.3180 and your stop loss is at 1.3280. The market goes against you and goes up to 1.3275 which is only 5 pips away to trigger your stop loss. As your stop loss is a buy order so the amount of the spread has to be added to the market price and if the result is equal to your stop loss value, it will be triggered. So the market is against you and is only 5 pips away from your stop loss value but it doesn’t mean that it has to go up 5 more pips to hit your stop. If your broker charges you 2 pips for EUR-USD, this 2 pips has to be added to the market price which is 1.3275.

So in fact your buy price will be 1.3277 which means it is only 3 pips away from your stop loss. If the market changes the direction and goes down at this stage, your stop loss will not be triggered but this is the opportunity that the scam brokers wait for it. As soon as the market becomes so close to your stop loss, the broker increases the spread. So while the spread is 2 pips and so the market is only 3 pips away from your stop, the broker adds at least 3 more pips to the spread to hit your stop loss. You think that you have lost your money in the market and because of the bad position you had taken, but in fact you have not lost it in a real trade. The broker has increased the spread to pretend that your stop loss is triggered but in fact it is not. The money you have lost is in the broker’s pocket.


I have experienced this myself. One day I have been watching the market through a very famous broker platform. I was checking both the live and demo account and I had one position with the demo account and one with the live account, both at the same time and price and with the same currency pair. Suddenly I saw that my position with the demo account triggered the target but the live account position was still open. When I checked, I found out that when the price became so close to the target, the spread was increased to prevent my position from hitting the target. The spread jumped from 4 to 14 in one second. It attracted my attention and I kept on monitoring the broker and I found out that they do the same thing when the price becomes so close to the stop loss. While the demo position is still open and has not triggered the stop loss, the live position becomes closed by the stop loss. So a trade that could make only $400 for the broker through charging 4 pips as the spread, made $10,000 for hitting a 100 pips stop loss. Easy money!

Why don’t they let the target to be triggered by increasing the spread?

If they let your target to be triggered, your trade will be closed and you will make a profit but if they keep your trade open, it is possible that the market goes against you and then they can hunt your stop loss.
As soon as I became 100% realized that they hunt my stops and don’t let the targets to be triggered, I enlightened all traders I knew. If you Google for it you can still find some of my posts on different forums. It also caused me to get some infractions from some forums because they work for those brokers. I think two of them even banned me and many of them deleted my post completely.

Can they succeed to hunt your stop loss or prevent your target all the time?
Not all the time. They try their chance. When the market goes to your direction strongly they can not do anything and your target will be triggered. Also when your position goes to your direction right away and doesn’t get close to your stop or when you have a wide stop loss, they can not do anything.
What should you do?

• Choose a reliable and well-know broker. Always check the reviews before you sign up. Do not be deceived by those brokers who are proud of having no dealing desk. Some of them may have no dealing desk but they do have stop loss hunter employees!
• Do not set tight stop losses and always consider the maximum spread.
• Try to take the best positions at the right time.

read more

If someone should concentrate on one currency pair in their forex trading is a fundamental question that needs to be addressed and matched to your trading style before you are going to be successful. My gut feeling is that the shorter the timeframe you use on your charts to make trade decisions, the lower the number of pairs you should trade. Let's get into the details:

You can be successful trading one pair

Many Traders are successful trading just one pair. The advantages of trading one pair include getting to know how one currency pair moves better, less to concentrate on when trading, which in turn leads to less distraction. One great example of a trader who is successful trading only the GBP/JPY is NickB at the Forex 4 Noobs website. By only trading the GBP/JPY using his scalping strategy, he has averaged over 100 pips profit every week for a year. I really like his site and love to use his trading for newbies as a simplistic approach to becoming successful.

Many traders do not like to trade one pair because their trading style doesn't get them into trades as frequently enough as they would like and they feel like they are missing out on the action. I call these people over traders and most of them will not be successful at all in the long run. I personally like to only trade one pair when I am trading with my 1 minute scalp system that I am develping right now. It moves to fast to look at too many charts at once.

You can be successful trading multiple pairs

My major trading style is one that only presents trades at most 5-12 times per week. Considering the low frequency at which this trades, I can successfully monitor all of the major pairs and many of the crosses at one time to look for the best entries and highest probabilities for what I think will be great trades. I don't trade all of these pairs at once because I am impatient. I merely can do this, and I have test my success to make sure I am not over trading.

As many of you know I mostly use 1 hr charts for my overbought and oversold trades, and I also look at the 1 day charts to see if there is any price resistance in the area that I should be aware of before entering. This goes right along with my idea that the longer the time frame, the more pairs you can trade.

Advice for new traders trying to decide which pairs to trade

My personal trading experiences were with every currency pair. In the beginning I think new traders should learn as much as they can about every pair. As you build a trading style that is consistent, you will learn that there are certain pairs that just don't play nice with your trading goals. I have only recently even strarted looking at scalping in my trading, and this is after years of trading much longer time frames. I am now concentrating on a couple of the majors with low spreads for short scalps, but really never more than one at a time to avoid hasty trades and confusion.

And I don't think I even have to say that new traders should not be trying any of these strategies with real money. It's much better to lose all of the money in a demo account a couple of times, than it is to try to tell your wife where all of that money went. Learn from listening to other traders, trade on demo, become humble, then start your journey. You'll thank me later.

• Point B should retrace 0.618 from the XA move.
• Point D should retrace 0.786 from the XA move and create the entry zone.
• Point D should be a 1.27 or 1.618 extension of the BC move
• Point C should retrace anywhere from 0.382 – 0.886 of the AB move.
• Buy or Sell at point D depending on whether the pattern is bullish or bearish
• Place stop either below the entry for the tightest or Risk: reward ratio or below Point X.
• If the market trades through Point X, the Gartley pattern is invalid and you should exit or not take the trade.

Basically it was created by Fx Lion, Then I made some modifications by adding the T3 Levels and Linear Regreassion, to read the PA movements by reading the LR_TSF and T3 Levels, so we can read the forecast not only from LR_TSF but we have to understand the T3 levels it self.

First reaction comes from LR_TSF, then the T3 Level functions,  there is reactions ( almost whole the times ) when PA goes to every single leves. I wrote the tutorials and how to use it here ( sorry it's in my native language Indonesian ) and it's free to download the System and Template.

I have been using this strategy long enough and it's always on my chart to make PA analysis. for my self i don't use it much at the small TF, but we can use it anyway, Combine with your strategy that's fine..and knowing The turning Point area and how strong the trend is important.

It's Credited To Jhon Bysu also, thank's brother for the indicator modifications. ( a lot Of memories right :D )

I don't have no more  activities right there ( Forum ).

Read How To use it, Try it On demo and probably if you are not Indonesian use Google translate :D

Good Luck and Success

Best Regards

QAS30

Trend Line is my favourite visual tool, i can use it at any time frames, any currencies. here is the great explanation how to use it, Written by Rob Pasche

To succeed in this business you need a sound method (notice i did not say system), common sense, discipline and a rock solid understanding that if you do not treat this as a business you have a ZERO CHANCE of long term success. 95 percent of new businesses fail even when the owner knows what they are doing. Do you really think this business is going to work for you after 3 months practice or less?

Whats interesting about this business is it affords the person that chooses to use common sense a way to learn it without losing a ton of money or any for that matter. Below is the outline i used 20 years ago to finally find some success and i have become almost mental about it. To this day any new method im testing or any refinement to existing methods goes thru the same process. Also remember this. small accounts could never keep me focused to be ultra picky about my entries and you will almost surely find the same thing. small accounts = over trading and YOU SIMPLY MUST LEARN TO BE PICKY ABOUT YOUR ENTRIES. Solution? Force yourself to be ultra picky (virtually impossible) or follow the plan below while your saving.


A Very Nice Thread, we can learn a lot from there Good Luck


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=2331

The Buy Side, by former Galleon Group trader Turney Duff, portrays an after-hours Wall Street culture where drugs and sex are rampant and billions in trading commissions flow to those who dangle the most enticements.  A remarkable writing debut, filled with indelible moments, The Buy Side shows as no book ever has the rewards – and dizzying temptations – of making a living on the Street.

Growing up in the 1980’s Turney Duff was your average kid from Kennebunk, Maine, eager to expand his horizons. After trying – and failing – to land a job as a journalist, he secured a trainee position at Morgan Stanley and got his first feel for the pecking order that exists in the trading pits.  Those on the “buy side,” the traders who make large bets on whether a stock will rise or fall, are the “alphas” and those on the “sell side,” the brokers who handle their business, are eager to please.

How eager to please was brought home stunningly to Turney in 1999 when he arrived at the Galleon Group, a colossal hedge-fund management firm run by secretive founder Raj Rajaratnam.  Finally in a position to trade on his own, Turney was encouraged to socialize with the sell side and siphon from his new broker friends as much information as possible.  Soon he was not just vacuuming up valuable tips but also being lured into a variety of hedonistic pursuits.  Naïve enough to believe he could keep up the lifestyle without paying a price, he managed to keep an eye on his buy-and-sell charts and, meanwhile, pondered the strange goings on at Galleon, where tens of millions were being made each week in sometimes mysterious ways.

At his next positions, at Argus Partners and J.L. Berkowitz, Turney climbed to even higher heights – and, as it turned out, plummeted to even lower depths – as, by day, he solidified his reputation one of the Street’s most powerful healthcare traders, and by night, he blazed a path through the city’s nightclubs, showing off his social genius and voraciously inhaling any drug that would fill the void he felt inside.

A mesmerizingly immersive journey through Wall Street’s first millennial decade, and a poignant self portrait by a young man who surely would have destroyed himself were it not for his decision to walk away from a seven-figure annual income, The Buy Side is one of the best coming-of-age-on-the-Street books ever written.

Kenapa Batas..??? bukan Arah terlebih dahulu..??? Batas merupakan hal terpenting yang wajib diketahui oleh setiap retailer, trader atau investor, Dan akurasi akurasi batas-batas itulah yang akan dicari cari oleh setiap trader, dari Mulai Time Frame terbesar di Chart MH1 hingga TF terkecil M1.

Dalam Setiap TF tersebut akan ada hukum-hukumnya yang mengharuskan si harga terkoreksi setelah dia berada dalam area kesepakatan batas batas di setiap TF tersebut. Maka dari itu Time Frame Tradepun terbagi ke beberapa TF, kenapa coba tidak hanya MH1 Chart..?? atau M1 chart saja ada M5,M30,H1,H4,D1,W1, ya karena ada batas dan hukum dalam setiap TF-TF tersebut. misalkan, Trend terbesar MH1 misalnya, setelah di analisa harga akan bergerak naik, namun jika D1 nya sudah ada dalam batas - batas atas maka bisa dipastikan akan ada Koreksi, sebelum melanjutkan kembali Trend terbesarnya.

Saya Misalkan begini: Kereta Api Parahyangan tujuan Bandung - Surabaya. ( merupakan tujuan akhir/Trend ) jelas di situ akan berangkat dari Bandung ke Surabaya, Batasnya ya Stasion Bandung Gubeng Surabaya.

                                                  Contoh : melihat batas Pergerakan


                                                    Contoh: Trend Sepakat basic MA


Di dalam perjalanannya, dia akan berhenti di Malang, Yogya, dsb, nurunin penumpang yang memang tujuannya hanya sampai malang, atau kota lainnya, lalu naikin lagi penumpang yang akan ke Surabaya juga, masinis bisa saja ganti, isi kembali akomodasi/logistik buat restorka, dll, baru lanjut lagi hingga akhirnya sampai ke Surabaya sebagai tujuan akhir.

Trendpun demikian, setelah kita tahu batas di mana dia akan berheti dulu, kapan lanjut kembali dsb, yang kita butuhkan hanya ikutin saja, kalau memang stop dulu di H1 misalnya, toh pasti setelah H1 selesai dia akan lanjutkan kembali trend di atasnya, ya jangan di lawan.

Arah pergerakan, misalkan menggunakan pola MA dan hampir semua visual indicators menggunakan basic MA, dengan type-typenya, bagi saya pribadi hanya sebagai pemasti saja, kenapa..??? saya misalkan begini, si MA cross UP atau cross down, namun dia bisa saja tiba - tiba bengkok seketika, dan berbalik arah,..."wow ada pelaku pasar gede nih yang masuk"...he he he...padahal harga sudah ada dalam batas kesepakatan untuk koreksi dalam sebuah TF ya koreksi dan MA tersebutpun bengkok tiba-tiba.

Mereka pelaku pasar gede diluar sanapun akan patuh pada batas-batas harga, control dari Bank centralpun berlaku, ketika harga sudah sepakat dalam area batas-batas, karena menyangkut pada stabilitas perekonomian satu negara, hedge and fund, instuisi, atau para seniman pasar ( yang biasa orang bilang spekulan ) akan selalu memperhitungkan batas batas area tersebut....




Good Luck..

It's a very simple trade by using MACD, no peak or bottom positions, because we just follow the trend.

for the MACD I love to use : 30-60-30 (15M), and other settings..

                                                         QAS30_MACD_TRADE
                                                         sample Trade for EUR/USD

Traders are told not to use tips to trade from, and that is good advice.  But using tips about trading to help be more successful is a different case altogether.
There is a temptation to discount tips as not providing real value because by their nature they are short and simple.
That type of thinking is a mistake.  A good tip is not an end, it is the means to an end.  It is the spark that makes you think in more depth about a specific aspect of trading.
Here are trading tips, from real traders, who put their own money on the line every day:

                             ——–
If you have to think for more than 5 seconds about how your trade is going to work, then it’s too complicated. Simple is Sexy.
Be contrarian in your thinking when it comes to entries and exits. If you run with the herd you are more likely to get run over by chasing the obvious.
Relative volume is the most important indicator for a chart breakout.
Learn the language…pop open the StockTwits suggested stream and immerse yourself for 6 months in the flow and language – 20 min a day 
Always think about risk first, profit potential second, and remember that you don’t have to know where the market is going to make money.
There are a lot of good stock pickers out there. That is 1 percent of trading. Trade management/position management; that’s the next level stuff that takes you from doing this as a hobby to doing it for a living.
Every stock chart is telling you a story…if you don’t understand the story, don’t trade the stock. 
If you are trend-trading then the base is your friend – stay close to the base and trade around the base selling into extended moves away from the base  (chasing after extended moves is probably the fastest way to blow-out for new traders). 
Don’t just work hard. Work hard to work smart.
Be aware of your risk limits before your trade and play within them. Most trading mistakes come from extreme emotions and extreme emotions arise when a trader  takes more risk than he is prepared to take.
Write out your complete trade idea on paper; pretend your are presenting it to a mentor or trader you admire. If you don’t need a ton of caveats or extra lines and indicators it’s probably a good trade.

It doesn’t hurt to be “right” on market direction but it is far from necessary to be a winner in this game over the long-term. 
Upgrades = potential selling opportunities.  Downgrades= potential buying opportunities.  I find this works when there is no significant news about the stock.
Community is great, but if you want to pay the bills, learn to trade and stick with your own ideas.
Step away from trading when stressed, fatigued, physically ill, or dealing with an issue that has you off-balance mentally or emotionally. 
Know your risk level aka ‘uncle point’ BEFORE you make a trade or investment NEVER afterwards.
Don’t fall into the trap of thinking you are right.  Remain objective.

The market doesn’t care what you think.

Price Action Trumps All. You can improve your trading by just simply paying attention to price action.
Say “nope” to dope and “Ugh” to drugs.
Know your timeframes – a great set-up for an intra-day scalp trade won’t be of any use if you plan on holding the stock for a swing.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
Trading when you’re tired, angry or distracted is a recipe for developing blinds pots and ignoring proper trading signals. 

One can be right on direction 9/10 times and still come out a loser if one cannot manage the downside when one is inevitably wrong. 

It’s the trader responsibility to adapt to the ever-changing market conditions. No strategy will work well in every market.  You must constantly adapt. 

Trade with the trend. Adhering to this one rule improved my trading immensely. 

If you don’t use a wide, 30-minute chart to plan your trend and chop trades, do something better suited to you.”

If you are reversion-to-mean trading then enter on extended moves away from the base (entering too early/close to the base, and getting blown out before the reversal most common mistake here for reversion to mean traders) and sell back into the base. 

Many plan their trade entries but to manage your risk you must also plan your exit and do it BEFORE you trade.
Don’t be penny wise and dollar foolish in choppy markets.
Buy high, sell higher. I know it’s a cliché, but if a stock is hitting a 52 week high or better yet an all time high that means that it is doing something right and Wall Street acknowledges it.  I’ve bought too many stocks on sale or based on valuation that don’t do squat or go lower while waiting on a catalyst.

80% of trading is psychology.

The best way to protect your confidence is to have a strong plan that produces consistent results and cut your losses quickly when your wrong. 
                                                               ——

Masing - masing Trade Style punya ke unikan tersendiri, risk dan reward tersendiri juga, rule rule yang menbatasinyapun akan lain, sebetulnya tergantung dari system dan aturan tradernya itu sendiri.

Swing Trade atau long term Trade, acuan Risk nya akan ditentukan sedemikian rupa pun rewardnya, target gak mungkin 100 pips per trade, tradernya pun gak nongkrongin chart seharian, range Weekly dan Monthly umumnya yang akan di analisa minimal Daily. Trade dengan swing lebih aman sebetulnya, margin masuk paling besar 5% itupun sudah kebesaran 2% sangat ideal, bulak baliknya harga tidak menjadikan pengaruh besar bagi seorang swing trader, bentuk investasi lebih dijadikan sasaran bagi swing trader.
hasil tentu akan jauh dengan Intraday Trade atau yang Scalpingan, ibaratkan petani yang tanam durian dimana panennya hanya setahun sekali.

Intraday Dan Scalping, Kebanyakan Intraday Trader atau scalper betul - betul mencari pola pola koreksi pada TF-TF kecil, baik itu memanfaatkan retrace, pull back, atau divergence, atau ikut entry kembali ketika trend betul betul telah terbentuk, akurasi entry sangat diperlukan untuk seorang intraday trader/scalper.

Misal: Seorang swing trader akan berani entry posisi setelah dia analisa TF-TF besar, padahal dalam TF kecil misalnya di M1-M5 atau M15, M30 harga ada dalam titik S/R yang jelas akan ada koreksi di TF TF tersebut, masuk market set TP dan SL kemudian tutup chart atau matiin komputer lalu lanjut dengan aktifitas keseharian lainnya diluar trade, paling paling buka chart besok atau lusa atau mungkin 1 minggu kemudian atau 1 bulan kemudian.

Tentu beda dengan Intraday Trader/Scalper, mengetahui batasan pergerakan dalam TF-TF kecil sangat sangat mutlak untuk meminimalkan risk..titik titik entry terbaik akan selalu dicari atau dia hanya akan ikut trend jadi saja ( trend sudah betul - betul confirm ).

SL ketat TP pun hanya sebatas range harian saja bahkan kurang dari itu, gk ada moment yang bagus ya tidak trade, dan rule rule lainnya.

Intraday Trader dan scalper umumnya hasil tradenya pun jauh lebih wow drpd swing trade, karena banyak pola koreksi harga yang dia ikutin walau dengan jumlah pips sedikit namun karena seringnya dia entry ketika momen momen di dapat maka hasilnyapun akan lumayan.

Risk lebih besar dr swing trade, banyakan yang loss dalam bidang ini adalah mereka yang berpola intraday trade dan scalper, seringnya kena SL sebelum harga berbalik lama lama ngurangin margin juga, NO SL tentu terlalu beresiko jika tanpa pengetahuan yang tepat akan pola batasan - batasan dalam setiap Time Frame.

Kecenderungan nongkrongin Monitor jauh lebih banyak frekwensinya, bahkan ada yang gk berani ninggalin PC jika sedang trade. he he he, dan marah marah jika ada yang dirasa mengganggu dia.

Tentukan pola trade style kita, sesuaikan dengan karakter pribadi kita, seorang pemarah gak sabaran, cepet naek tensi saya sarankan jangan intraday atau scalpingan, lebih baik belajar swing trade saja biar gak Stress..!!

apapun pola trade kita baik itu swing atau intraday pengetahuan pola batasan harga sangat - sangat penting..!!!

sukses selalu..

This is just an archieves of My Trades, I do believe there is corrections on the smallest TF M1:

It's not an easy thing to Trade on M1, cause everything must be on the same point.."Greed when other people getting fear and fear when other people gonnna be Greedy"

Statistics prove that more than 80% of traders are not making money from forex trading. So what can you do to ensure you are part of the rare band of profitable forex players?
Ask any pro trader and they'll cite money management as one of the main, if not the key, factors in separating the winners from the losers. So many of that 80% disregard these crucial techniques it would be laughable if it wasn't so sad.
I have been trading for over 10 years and having coached a large number of traders, I have seen that the ultimate cause of failure is the lack of awareness of the 3M’s of ‘Money, Mind and Method&rsquo.
If we distribute the 3M’s on a scale of 10, then:

• Money – ‘money management’ would constitute five parts.
• Mind – ‘discipline and patience’ would constitute three parts.
• Method – ‘technical analysis’ would constitute two parts.

This tells us that the Method — the technical analysis (or fundamental analysis) is the least important part of trading.
But let’s be fair here. It really is not the trader’s fault, since most of the information available says otherwise.
If you purchase a course or a book, they all talk about technical indicators, chart patterns etc., but rarely will you come across a book or course which tells you to concentrate on the Money and Mind.
Most new traders will purchase a book, open the charts, look at the indicators, and buy/sell based on the crossover of the indicator lines or moving averages etc.
What about money management? What about the discipline and patience to prepare a trade plan and follow it? Zilch! Is it surprising that these traders lose money?
As traders we are all here to make money from the markets. But what should be the first priority of the trader?
The first priority of a trader is to conserve the capital. The trader’s capital is his bloodline. Without it, one cannot trade, so preserving it becomes a matter of utmost importance.
Without implementation of proper loss control techniques, a sudden large drawdown can shrink an account to such an extent that the possibility of attaining profitability becomes remote.
A single loss is not only a loss of capital; it also puts a trader two steps behind in the quest to profitability.
This is because the percent gain needed to recover from a loss increases geometrically with every loss.
Table 1 illustrates the concept, and ultimately the importance of controlling the loss of capital.

Therefore a trader must have a money management policy. A money management policy is nothing more than a set of techniques that help a trader minimise the risk of loss, while still enabling him/ her to participate in major price gains. It is probably the most critical aspect of trading and the most overlooked.
A sound money management policy becomes an absolute must in the forex markets, due to the availability of high leverage.
As the popular saying goes “take care of your losses, and the profits will come by itself”.
I want to put down certain facts and some simple rules of money management which would help the trader achieve the desired success.

1. Expect losing trades

It is only natural that when we take a trade, we tend to focus on potential profits than dwell on possible losses. We are usually so convinced that the trade will be profitable, that we tend to ignore the possible losses that would occur should the trade go wrong. One must accept that losses in trading are inevitable, and a successful trader is one who manages and controls these losses.

2. Placing stops

Trading without stops is akin to walking a tightrope without a safety net. As far as possible, one must have stops in the market since this is the only way to control the losses. While this becomes a ‘double edged sword’ since a trader may get stopped out of a trade for no reason, it is still the best ‘safety net’.

3. Stop loss levels

The most important rule is that the stops should never be mere ‘dollar value’ stops, but technically correct stops. Which simply means that one cannot decide on the stop level based on his/her personal risk level. A trader cannot say, “I am going to risk only $50 for the trade.”
The market does not care about your comfort levels; it respects the technical levels. Hence a stop must be at a technical level, regardless of how far it is away from the entry. If one does not follow this simple rule, the ‘comfortable’ dollar values stop would probably get stopped out more often, which defeats the very purpose of placing a stop.

4. Trading is a business of probabilities

You are in control only until the moment of the entry. Once you are filled in the trade, the market will dictate where the price will go. You cannot control this, just like you cannot control with 100% certainty, the amount of profit (or loss).
But what you can control is minimising your losses and protecting gains through a well-defined money management strategy.
A sound money management policy is based on two simple concepts: the proper risk-to-reward ratio, and correct position sizing, where the ‘position sizing’ simply means the amount of capital that a trader should risk on any trade. In this article, we will have a detailed look at the first principle.

5. Risk-to-reward ratio

One must always keep the RR ratio at a minimum of (1:2).
Let us use simple mathematics to understand the concept of the RR ratios.
First and foremost, one must accept that losses are a part of trading and one will have losing trades.
Let’s assume that a trader has a win-loss ratio of 60%.This means that out of every 10 trades taken, a trader would get six winning trades and four losing trades.

The only way to achieve gains in the account is by maintaining the required RR ratio.
Hence, if a trader is maintaining an average stop loss level of 25 pips, then the expected profits from the trade must be at least 50 pips.
Scenario 1: The trader has four losing trades @ 25 pips = (-) 100 pips. The trader has six winning trades @ 50 pips = (+) 300 pips. Net result after 10 trades = (+) 200 pips.
Hence a trader can achieve gains in the account, even after getting four losing trades out of 10.
Scenario 2: Now change the RR ratio to (1:1) and the net result comes to (+) 50 pips, which drastically reduces the gains in the account.
Scenario 3: Now reduce the RR ratio to less than (1:1), say (0.50:1) which is what scalpers tend to do – look for a profit of 10 pips and keep a safe stop of 20 pips.
The net result comes to minus-20 pips. To be honest, if I do not get sizable gains in my account after  10 trades, I am simply wasting my time. To achieve a worthwhile increase in the capital (after spending the time and effort) one must maintain the correct RR ratio. Unfortunately this simple fact is ignored by most traders.
Let us have a look at a trade example, which was taken and managed by incorporating the above mentioned aspects. I have taken a trade example of a harmonic pattern, for the simple reason that these patterns give excellent risk-to-reward ratios.
Figure 1 was a live trade taken in our ‘trading room’ of a bearish Gartley pattern on the daily time frame on EUR/USD.
As seen in the chart (Figure 1), once the pattern confirmed with the formation of point D, we determined the precise entry, stop and exit levels.
• Stop was placed above point D.
• Expected price target was the Fibonacci projection ratio 127.2%.
• The entry is a very crucial factor and was decided on a combination of three different factors.
As one can see in the chart, these parameters gave a fantastic RR ratio of (1:4).
Not only does this give a highly profitable trade, it also enables the trader to take profits in between, thus locking in the profits as the trade progresses.
There are two reasons for mentioning this trade: 1. We can draw a simple conclusion that as traders we must look for techniques/strategies which assure the minimum RR ratio. 2. This trade will be used to explain the concept of ‘position sizing’ in the next article.

by Sunil Mangwani

 Sunil Mangwani has been trading and consulting in the forex market for the last 10 years and specialises in trading with price action and Fibonacci ratios. Sunil has contributed to numerous financial publications, spoken at trading conference around the world and conducts specialised workshops on technical analysis. He is also the founder of “London School of Financial Trading”. For more information, visit www.fibforex123.com

Capital Blu Management LLC showed their clients solid monthly returns. It looked like a sound investment. The only real warning sign was that the money wasn't in individual accounts, but in a pooled account.

According to the CFTC, while clients thought they were getting those monthly returns, Capital Blu was really losing over $7 million of the $17 million that has been invested. Millions more are unaccounted for, The owners, Donovan Davis, Jr., Blayne Davis, and Damien Bromfield are charged with running a fraudulent commodity pool. In addition to the charges against those individuals and CapitalBlu, a second company, DD International Holdings, LLC, is also charged. Further, there is an issue of money being illegitimately transferred to Nakano Capital Partners, LP, Nakano Capital Advisors, LLC, and/or Nakano Capital Management, LLC.

Some of the money was also misused for personal use. Things like luxury cars and private jet charters were paid for with client funds. Some of it was misused for very personal use. $40,000 was spent for a two night party at a “gentlemen's” club. We are shocked at these abuses of client funds and saddened that none of us ever get invited to that sort of party.

There were about 100 investors involved. That would make the average investment $170,000. 7 million was lost. That cost each investor an average of $70,000. There are millions more unaccounted for.

We wish to give a very special Thank You to the newest member of the FPA's Review Moderation Team for bringing this to our attention earlier today.

The FPA has blacklisted CapitalBlu. We hope that most of the missing money can be recovered so that investors can get at least some of their money back.

I outlined how a trader's very achievement motivation can lead to "pressing": trying so hard to make trades happen that trading plans and rules are abandoned. This often happens when traders become frustrated with losses or slow markets and try to make up for the lack of results by sizing positions too aggressively or by taking too many positions. Traders press when they feel pressure, whether for profits, for action, or to achieve competitive advantage over other traders.

The result is a loss of self-control, as aggressiveness takes over and judgment takes a back seat. Successful trading may be discretionary or system-based, but it should always be rule-governed: controlled by basic considerations of risk management and opportunity. Indeed, this might be an apt definition of poor trading: when the need to trade overwhelms the need to preserve and add to capital.

One of my favorite posters in my office is of a military sniper in the field, peering out from ground cover. The caption beneath the picture reads, "The sniper's greatest weapon is a sharply honed intellect. He combines a mastery of stealth, situational awareness, ballistics and precision shooting skills into one of the most lethal weapon systems to ever strike fear into the enemy."

If the sniper became too aggressive and excessively bored with sitting in the field waiting for the right shot, he might leap from his cover and begin spraying the enemy with fire. Most of the shots would probably go wild, and the out-of-control sniper would quickly be located and mowed down.

No, the sniper waits for the ideal shot: "stealth" and "situational awareness" are essential tools of the trade. Being a sniper means combining aggression with exquisite self-control and judgment. It is controlled aggression.

Over the years, I've learned to trade like a sniper by not placing one trade after another in rapid succession. When a trade is concluded, I go flat and wait for a fresh setup. During the waiting time, I refresh my "situational awareness" (assessment of market conditions, my own condition), and return to my basic trading rules.

The idea is to trade only when I have an unobstructed view of the target. Everything else is waiting and preparing, staying low in a defensive posture. It's the time between those shots at the target that provide the self-control. It is difficult to press if you take the time to reassess, reload, and return to cover after an errant shot. With repetition, that reassessment and reloading become automatic: your default mode becomes one of self-control.

Plan. Trade. Reassess plan. Trade: It's a rhythm that combines the best of achievement motivation and aggression with the best of judgment and forethought. It's a beautiful feeling to plan one good trade, execute it to perfection, and then sit back and wait for the next opportunity. Any performance skill, honed and executed with precision, is a kind of work of art. I think the best snipers understand that.

 1. PA pullback dari 72 nya Monthly, belum sanggup menembus 72 MN1.

2. W1 TF, belum ada perenggangan pada LR_TSF, walau PA sudah ada di area LR_TSF, namun tekanan sar W1 diatas masih bisa mendorong PA ke arah sar di bawahnya, jalan di W1 sudah terbuka dengan breaknya sar tersebut buat PA melanjutkan Trend W1.

3. H1 merupakan area entry ( intraday ) dan re entry ( swing trade )



H1 TF yang merupakan koreksi dari D1 TF , dengan membaca/melakukan analisa pada W1, bisa dijadikan asumsi untuk entry/trade, namun pada dasarnya Trade harus membaca trend, semua TF harus dianalisa, dikondisikan, mulailah dengan TF terbesar, ambil asumsi risk dan rewardnya, sesuaikan dengan style trade, intraday atau swing trade. Baca pula korelasinya, untuk hasil maximal.


PS: "closed manual jika merasa cukup"

semoga berguna..

What is the best time frame in Forex?

What is the most profitable time frame in Forex?
Those and similar questions are rising day after day in minds of novice Forex traders.

Let’s drop out the philosophy and focus on facts.

We know that each time frame displays same data, but in different intervals.
The choice of time frames is wide.

Let’s take the most preferred Forex time frames: 1 day, 1 hour and 5 minute.
These time frames are also perfect for beginners to test their feel about the Forex market.

On daily charts each price bar represents one day, thus a change on the chart will be observed once a day.
On hourly time frame new price bars will appear every hour, putting more data on the chart for analysis.
5 minute chart will produce a new price bar every 5 minutes, showing market changes fast and in greater details.
Forex time

Each time frame can be traded successfully and yield opportunities for profitable trading.
What time frame to trade? It will depend on your next expectations:

A. Timing
B. Profit goals
C. Money management and tolerance for losses

Timing
Are you willing to monitor charts every 5 minutes for several hours a day?
Are you comfortable taking decisions fast and like quickly changing prices?
If yes, try trading 5 minutes charts.

Or may be you prefer a slower pace at 1 bar per hour. You also believe that hourly charts are more reliable in the way they depict the market since much of the noise produced on smaller time frames can be eliminated.
Then 1 hour time frame might be your winner.

Or it might be the case that you don’t have time watching the charts during the day because you have a full time job and/or you believe that intraday changes do not have much effect on the market and summary results can be best observed by the end of the day. You may also find out that you want to hold your trading positions open overnight, means that your money will work even when you sleep; and at the same time you want to be confident that your Forex analysis wasn’t based on short term momentum.`
Then daily charts would be just right for you.

Profit goals
The smaller the time frame the smaller the profit goals set by traders for each trade. E.g. while on 5 minute charts Forex traders would see reasonable targets at the next support/resistance level 15-30 pips away from the entry point, on the daily time frame profit goals will be extended several days into the future with expectations of banking 200-400 or more pips in one trade.
A trader can make same 200-400 pips trading 5 min time frame, but it would require a lot of trades to be taken, hours of price monitoring, which is not an easy task.

Money management and tolerance for losses
Forex trading is not always about wins, losses are part of the trading process.
Managing losses on 5 min time frame would be the easiest thing to do. Firstly, because a trader is able to monitor charts all the time, secondly, because losses are usually small due to the nature of 5 minute trading: price ranges are smaller and it is easy to tell when the market starts turning against your position.

Hourly charts have wider price ranges and therefore require wider stops to be placed, and in case of being wrong on a trade, larger losses to be taken.

If to speak about daily charts, losses there if occur are even larger as the market requires wider space to swing the price.

So here you have: smaller profit targets and smaller losses or larger profit targets and larger risks. Making profits with more price action and more trading opportunities, but also a lot of time spent in front of the monitor every day, or making profits with less price action and opportunities and less time spend trading Forex.

Tehnik ini untuk mencuri start dalam Intraday Trade, tidak menggunakan perpotongan MA sebagai trend namun memanfaatkan pola pantulan harga ketika harga menyentuh satu area S/R.

Setiap tehnik ada kelemahan dan kelebihannya, kelemahan tehnik ini ketika menghadapi pola market Trending, namun ketika ranging tehnik ini jagonya :D. ( kalau salah menyikapi dan hanya berpatokan di satu TF saja ya bablas ).

Sebetulnya ada filter untuk menyikapinya, karena yang diutamakan dengan tehnik ini adalah "mencuri start sebelum trend jadi", artinya jika yang dicari hanya 10-20 pips Insya Alloh tidak akan lama, tanpa harus menunggu konfirmasi dari MA.

Setiap tehnik tentu mewajibkan pembacaan trend terjauh pun halnya tehnik ini, saya sendiri menggunakannya di 5M ( untuk Intraday), dengan tetap membaca TF-TF diatasnya juga trend terjauh.

Setiap Tehnik membutuhkan disiplin dan sabar, dalam tehnik ini "kurang maximal jika menggunakan pending order" dalam area deviasi BB, kenapa karena atas bawahnya harus betul2 match..misal harga sudah ada dalam batasan deviasi bawah BB ( artinya sudah bisa buy secara bb untuk ambil koreksi ), TAPI jika trend bawah belum match dalam area OS ( Over Sold ya gak boleh dulu entry), jadi betul-betul manual trade, dengan menunggu moment-moment terbaik entry untuk mengurangi risk dan memaximalkan trade. hehehehe apalagi lot gajah gak berani untuk PO :D.

Saya sendiri menyikapinya dalam intraday saya begini:

"Ketika saya ambil koreksi ( dari trend jauh/big map saya, maka saya akan masuk dengan lot yang kecil dan TP pun tidak terlalu jauh ), namun jika saya re entry dengan ikut Big map setelah menemukan kondisi yang betul - betul maximal maka lotpun saya tambah.

Ada satu kepastian dari pola indi bawah ( artinya bukan harga bergerak statis ) namun setelah dari area bawah "selalu pasti nyari atasnya pun halnya sebaliknya" :D hanya perkara waktu saja, jadi setelah taro order set TP bisa ditingalin gak usah ditongkrongin karena Insya Alloh akan ke area kebalikannya..

Jika puas hanya dengan 10-15-20 pips ya sudah, apalagi dengan lot tertentu 1-2x trade sehari cukup, dan ukuran floting minuspun/Risk Ratio  ( kalau harus ) sangat sangat terukur.


Ketika harga ada dalam batasan-batasan tertentu tradepun gak akan maksaiin "untuk maximal profit" Misal: Trend panjang/bigmap UP misalnya, namun jika di TF 1M atau 5M sdh overbought ya tetep aja koreksi, gak mungkin maksaiin untuk terus Buy dalam area OB di TF tersebut :D.

Update:

sorenya:




sukses...

semoga berguna

wassalam

As a FX Trader, we have to know how the important of pairs Currency Correlation, why because we will know what is the best pair in our trade. Without Knowing it we'll stay at a pair without probability movements.

As a forex trader, if you check several different currency pairs to find the trade setups, you should be aware of the currency pairs correlation, because of two main reasons:

1- You avoid taking the same position with several correlated currency pairs at the same time and so you do not multiply your risk. Additionally, you avoid taking the positions with the currency pairs that move against each other, at the same time. 2- If you know the currency pairs correlations, it may help you to predict the direction and movement of a currency pair, through the signals that you see on the other correlated currency pairs.

Now I explain how currency pairs correlation helps. Lets start with the 4 major currency pairs: EURUSD ; GBPUSD ; USDJPY and USDCHF.

In both of the first two currency pairs (EURUSD and GBPUSD), USD works as the money. As you know, the first currency in currency pairs is known as the commodity and the second one is the money. So when you buy EURUSD, it means you pay USD to buy Euro. In EURUSD and GBPUSD, the currency that works as the money is the same (USD). The commodity of these pairs are both related to two big European economies. These two currencies are highly connected and related to each other and in 99% of the cases they move on the same direction and form the same buy/sell signals. Just recently, because of the economy crisis, they moved a little differently but their main bias is still the same.

What does it mean? It means if EURUSD shows a buy signal, GBPUSD should also show a buy signal with minor differences in the strength and shape of the signal. If you analyze the market and you come to this conclusion that you should go short with EURUSD and at the same time you decided to go long with GBPUSD, it means something is wrong with your analysis and one of your analysis is wrong. So you should not take any position until you see the same signal in both of these pairs. Of course, when these pairs really show two different direction (which rarely happens), it will be a signal to trade EUR-GBP. I will tell you how.

Accordingly, USD-CHF and USDJPY behave so similar but not as similar as EURUSD and GBPUSD, because in USD-CHF and USDJPY, money is different. Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen have some similarities because both of them belong to oil consumer countries but the volume of industrial trades in Japan, makes JPY different.

Generally, when you analyze the four major currency pairs, if you see buy signals in EURUSD and GBPUSD, you should see sell signals in USDJPY. If you also see a sell signal in USD-CHF, then your analysis is more reliable. Otherwise, you have to revise and redo your analysis.

EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, GBPJPY, EURJPY, AUDJPY and NZDJPY usually have the same direction. Just their movement pattern sometimes becomes more similar to each other and sometimes less.

What do I prefer?

If I find a sell signal with EURUSD and GBPUSD and a buy signal with USDJPY, I prefer to take the short position with one of the EURUSD or GBPUSD because downward movements are usually stronger. I will not take the short position with EURUSD or GBPUSD and the long position with USDJPY at the same time, because if any of these positions goes against me, the other one will do the same. So I don’t double my risk by taking two opposite positions with two currency pairs that move against each other.

How to use the currency pairs correlation to predict the direction of the market?

When I have a signal with a pair, but I need confirmation to take the position, I refer to the correlated currency pairs or cross currency pairs and look for the confirmation. For example I see a MACD Divergence in USDCAD four hours chart but there is no close support breakout in USDCAD four hours or one hour chart. I want to take a short position but I just need a confirmation. If I wait for the confirmation, it can become too late and I may miss the chance. I check a correlated currency pair like USDSGD and if I see a support breakout in it, I take the short position with USDCAD. Now the question is why I don’t take the short position with USDSGD and I use its support breakout to go short with USDCAD? I do it because USDCAD movements are stronger and more profitable. I use USDSGD just as an indicator to trade USCAD.

It happens that you take a position with a currency pair, but it doesn’t work properly and you don’t know if it was a good decision or not. On the other hand, you don’t see any sharp signal on that currency pair to help you decide if you want to keep the position or close it. In such cases, you can check a correlated currency pair and look for a continuation or reversal signal. It helps you to decide about the position you have.

Sometimes, some correlated currency pairs don’t move in the way that they are supposed to move. For example EURUSD and USDJPY go up at the same time, whereas they usually move against each other. It can happen when Euro value goes up and USD value doesn’t have a significant change, but at the same time JPY value goes down, because of some reason. In these cases, you can use the below table to find and trade the currency pair that its movement is intensified by an unusual movement in two other currency pairs. In this example, if EURUSD and USDJPY go up at the same time, EURJPY will go up much stronger (see the below chart).

Or if EURUSD goes up and AUDUSD goes down at the same time, EUR-AUD goes up strongly.

Another important example: If EURUSD goes up and GBPUSD goes down at the same time, EURGBP goes up strongly. Maybe this is the most important case that we can trade based on this rule. It happens many times that EURUSD and GBPUSD move against each other and that is the best time to trade EURGBP. Now you know why EURGBP doesn’t move strongly most of the time. It is because EURUSD and GBPUSD move in the same direction most of the time. For example they go up at the same time and so EURGBP doesn’t show any significant movement because when both of the currencies of a currency pair go up or down at the same time, that currency pair doesn’t show any strong movement and direction (I hope you know why a currency pair goes up or down. It goes up when the first currency value goes up OR the second currency value goes down.

For example EURUSD goes up, if Euro value goes up or USD value goes down. If this happens at the same time, then EURUSD goes up much stronger).

The below chart includes almost all of these unusual movements and their results on the third currency: