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S.Korea to launch 20-yr T-bond futures, monitor forex deposits

Published on: Kamis, 20 Februari 2014 in , , , , , ,

South Korea's financial regulator said on Thursday it plans to establish a 20-year government bond futures market by 2015 to boost derivatives trading activity and offer investors' more hedging options.
The Financial Services Commission (FSC), in an annual report to the president, said a greater variety of derivatives products will offer investors the ability to properly manage their investment risks.

This measure comes as the South Korean government seeks to increase the proportion of longer-term debt to reduce potential refinancing risks and meet demand from institutional investors for such products. A futures contract for longer-tenored debt would help investors cope with risks associated with the less liquid paper.

The FSC also said it will closely monitor a recent spike in yuan-denominated deposits and any similar trends involving other foreign currencies for potential risks.

Yuan deposits by South Korean residents jumped nearly nine-fold between September to January as investors searching for higher yields invested in short-term, asset-backed commercial paper that results in simulated yuan deposits in local branches of Chinese banks via currency swaps.

Bank of Korea Governor Kim Choong-soo said last week that the spike in yuan deposits was not a major cause for concern, and policymakers have so far ruled out any change in regulation to curb the yuan deposit growth.

Finally, the FSC said it plans to announce additional measures to manage household debt conditions by end-February. Though it did not disclose specifics, new measures will add to existing debt restructuring efforts such as boosting the amount of longer-term and amortising home mortgages to push borrowers towards more financially sound loans. (Reporting by Se Young Lee; Editing by Kim Coghill)

The 10 people behind the scene who control the GLOBAL ECONOMY

Published on: Selasa, 11 Februari 2014 in , ,

THEY sit behind the scenes pulling the strings, but you probably don't even know they exist. 

Officials at the US Federal Reserve hold confidential meetings eight times a year where they pore over economic data from business confidence to building approvals to gauge how the economy is tracking.
What they decide determines monetary policy for the $17 trillion US economy and can trigger changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, employment and the price of goods around the world.
Now, with Janet Yellen at the helm - the first female in their 100 year history - the Fed is about to start winding back stimulus measures which could have a massive impact on Australian markets, including everything from how much your mortgage costs to where you go on holiday.
Confused? This is how it works.
The Federal Reserve in Washington DC.
The Federal Reserve in Washington DC. Source: AFP
The Federal Reserve, as the central bank that regulates the world's biggest economy, is the linchpin of the global financial system.
It's run by a Board of Governors and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) responsible for setting monetary policy in the US covering everything from lending rates to reserve requirements and regulation of the banking system.
Their huge scope means what they do impacts every other financial market in the world, ensuring economists hang on their every word and traders make or lose billions by their decisions.
Westpac economist Elliot Clarke said the Fed is the bedrock of the global financial system and their decisions are "very very important" for the Australian economy.
"They're considered a baseline for markets, it's up to market economists to add more colour," he said.
Janet Yellen, dubbed the $17 trillion woman after taking over the role of Chair.
Janet Yellen, dubbed the $17 trillion woman after taking over the role of Chair.
So who are they?

The FOMC is usually made up of 12 people, including seven from the Board of Governors and five from Federal Reserve banks around the country. But at the moment there are just 10 people due to vacancies in certain seats.

These are the 10 members of the FOMC for 2014
• Janet L. Yellen, Board of Governors, Chair: Former economics professor who previously served as vice chair under Bernanke and is said to be keen to tackle unemployment.
• Jerome H. Powell, Board of Governors: Has a law degree and once served as assistant secretary and undersecretary of the treasury for George Bush.
Sarah Bloom Raskin, Board of Governors: Took office in 2010 after serving as commissioner of financial regulation in Maryland.
Jeremy C. Stein, Board of Governors: Former Harvard economics professor who has previously been secretary of the treasury and on staff at National Economics Council.
Daniel K. Tarullo, Board of Governors: Law professor who was President Clinton's assistant on international economic policy.
William C. Dudley: Sits on the FOMC permanently as president of New York Federal Reserve and was previously managing partner and economist at Goldman Sachs.
Richard W. Fisher: President of Dallas Reserve Bank who grew up in Mexico and started his own companies before selling controlling interests when he went into government.
Narayana Kocherlakota: Baltimore native who was economics professor and research economist at Reserve Bank of Minneapolis before rising to become president.
Sandra Pianalto: Italian-born economist started out as in the research department in 1983 and rose to become boss at the Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
Charles I. Plosser: Former Stanford professor who worked as a consultant to high profile companies and banks before becoming President of Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

What's it to me?
Yellen takes over from former Chair Ben Bernanke who ran the Fed for eight years.
Yellen takes over from former Chair Ben Bernanke who ran the Fed for eight years.
Janet Yellen takes the helm at perhaps the trickiest time in the Federal Reserve's history.
Since the financial crisis, the central bank has embarked on three distinct phases of "quantitative easing," a program of purchasing treasury bonds and mortgage backed securities designed to help the US economy recover its strength.
The last phase, known as Operation Twist, began in September 2011 has seen the Fed provide $85 billion worth of stimulus every month from January to November 2013. However they're now looking to wind this back, dropping it to $75 billion in December 2013 and $65 billion in January 2014.

Mr Clarke said the Fed expects to reduce this by $10 billion a month until the economy can stand on its own two feet, relying on "incomes and regular activity drive the economy rather than just excess liquidity."
Actions at the Federal Reserve reverberate in financial markets all around the world. 
The impact in Australia depends on how things pan out, but Mr Clarke said the main thing markets don't like is uncertainty.
"Any data and decision within expectations doesn't tend to impact markets all that much. What is actually a contractual shift in policy can be seen as a positive. It really is to do with market psyche and how this expectations or piece of data impacts markets going forward," he said.
However as the Fed is essentially turning off the money tap and hoping for the best, there is a major risk it won't proceed as expected.
"Our general concern is its [the US economy] is not as strong as people make it out to be. There is a risk that the Fed won't be able to continue to taper and markets might react in a different way, we might actually see a much more prolonged period of tapering," he said, which would mean the Aussie dollar remaining at current levels.

"Our purchasing power would actually be staying around the same level rather than deteriorating. That's a positive for Australian consumers."
However this could provide a risk to markets, where fears over US growth have a negative impact.
"Concerns over the US growth trajectory gets market participants scared and they tend to want to reduce their exposure to risk which means they sell equities," he said.
"It's just really all about market expectations and how they relate to the data we see. Without those that factors you're likely to see continuation in a range around the current level."


Japan battles China for influence in Africa

Japan’s rivalry with China is going global. After years of jousting over obscure islands in the East China Sea and competing for Asian influence, the two countries are now battling for power in a new arena: Africa.
It’s a region that Tokyo has long ceded to the Chinese, allowing Beijing to pile up massive economic and political capital across Africa. But on Friday, in a major shift in strategy, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe arrived in Ivory Coast to begin his first tour of sub-Saharan Africa – and the first by any Japanese prime minister in eight years.

Mr. Abe is expected to announce more than $14-billion (U.S.) in trade and foreign aid agreements during his five-day African tour. It’s a dramatic escalation in Japan’s stake in the African battleground, although certainly not enough to threaten China’s commanding edge in trade and investment in Africa, nor its political clout here.

China’s state media were quick to portray Mr. Abe’s visit as an attempt to challenge Beijing in the African arena. Quoting several Japanese sources, state-owned China Daily said the Japanese leader is seeking to “contain” China’s influence in Africa.

Another Chinese newspaper, Global Times, quoted Japan analyst Geng Xin as saying that Tokyo was “cozying up” to Africa to try to dispel Japan’s image as an “economic giant and political dwarf.” He said Japan is wooing the votes of African countries for its bid to become a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council.

A spokeswoman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Hua Chunying, issued a veiled warning to Japan. “If there is any country out there that attempts to make use of Africa for rivalry, the country is making a wrong decision, which is doomed to fail,” she told a press conference this week.

Japan criticizes Beijing for its tendency to build lavish headquarters and office towers as donations for African politicians – including, most famously, the new $200-million headquarters of the African Union in Addis Ababa, where Mr. Abe is scheduled to give a policy speech next week.

“Countries like Japan … cannot provide African leaders with beautiful houses or beautiful ministerial buildings,” Mr. Abe’s spokesman, Tomohiko Taniguchi, told the BBC.
Japan, he said, prefers to “aid the human capital of Africa.”
But while the two countries take verbal shots at each other, the reality is that China has adopted a far more aggressive strategy in Africa, and has been enormously successful so far. China’s investment in Africa was reported to be about seven times that of Japan in 2011, and its exports to Africa were about five times greater.

China has become the top trading partner, or second-biggest trading partner, of about half of Africa’s countries. It is a major investor in Africa’s resources sector, and the biggest buyer of oil and minerals from many African countries. Its construction companies are building roads, highways, railway lines, sports stadiums, transit systems and hospitals across Africa.

Japan will find it difficult to catch up to China’s political influence here. China’s leaders are frequent visitors to the continent. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is currently in the middle of an African tour, and Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Africa last year on his first overseas trip as President. Beijing has cultivated close relationships with Africa’s ruling parties, routinely inviting their officials on junkets to China.
Japan has lagged far behind in this race. Most of its engagement with Africa is as an aid donor. Last year it promised up to $32-billion in public and private assistance to Africa over the next five years, but this only confirmed its reputation as a donor, rather than a business partner.

Only a handful of Japanese investors are active in Ivory Coast, Ethiopia and Mozambique – the three countries that Mr. Abe is visiting in his current tour. According to a fact sheet by the Japanese government, there are only two Japanese companies in Ivory Coast and only one in Ethiopia.

Mr. Abe, who calls himself Japan’s “top salesman,” seems determined to propel Japan into a much more active role on the world stage. Last year, in the first year of his latest term as Prime Minister, he visited 25 countries around the world – including all 10 countries in Southeast Asia and most of the oil-producing countries in the Persian Gulf. He is expected to visit another six countries this month alone.
Africa is “a frontier for Japan’s diplomacy,” he told reporters as he departed on his latest overseas tour. He is bringing a delegation of Japanese business leaders with him on the tour, signalling his goal of shifting from aid to trade.
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