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Barack Obama authorized airstrikes in Iraq and Crude prices traded higher on Friday

Published on: Minggu, 10 Agustus 2014 in , ,
Crude prices traded higher on Friday after the US President Barack Obama authorized airstrikes in Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer.

Brent futures jumped on the escalated tensions between and the US and EU. In China, the world’s largest oil importer; the nation posted its trade surplus, boosting oil prices. China’s crude oil imports rose 2.1% in July from June to 23.76 million tons.

The North American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for September delivery advanced 0.62% to $97.95 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at the time of writing. While futures for the European benchmark Brent crude for September settlement, jumped 0.75% to $106.24 on the ICE Futures Exchange based in London.
Geopolitical Tensions

On Thursday, the US President Barack Obama said he authorized airstrikes in Iraq to protect US personnel, however the US troops will not return to Iraq. Despite the ongoing crises in the country, oil reserves in the southern region of Iraq remained unaffected.

In other news, Obama called for an extension to the 72-hour truce currently taking place between Gaza Strip and Israel.

Yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin imposed a ban on imports from the US and European Union countries in response to the sanctions imposed by the countries. Traders continue to raise concerns and expecting the move could lead to another round of sanctions, which could affect the energy sector.

FOREX-Yen, Swiss franc benefit from Iraq concerns

Published on: Jumat, 08 Agustus 2014 in , , ,

* Approval of U.S. air strikes dominates market mood
* Dollar hits 2-week low versus safe haven yen
* Euro recovers ground as dollar takes hit (Updates with early European trade, changes dateline from previous TOKYO)

LONDON, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Investors sought refuge in the traditional security of the yen and Swiss franc on Friday after U.S. President Barack Obama approved air strikes in Iraq, adding to tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine which have unnerved global financial markets.

Obama said in an address that he authorised targeted strikes to protect the besieged Yazidi minority and U.S. personnel in Iraq, after the Iraqi government requested help.
The benchmark U.S. Treasury yield fell to a 14-month low as bond prices rose in the wake of the air strike news, helping to weaken the dollar almost half a percent against the yen. The franc gained a quarter of a percent.

"President Obama's authorisation of selective air strikes on Iraq has dominated overnight market movements," said Adam Cole, head of G10 currency strategy at RBC Capital Markets in London. "All markets, including FX, have a severe risk-off tone."
Currency markets in general have been relatively resistant to concerns over the situation in Ukraine, Gaza or Iraq, but there is growing concern that a mix of growth-sapping sanctions and potentially higher oil prices could derail the global economy.

That has begun to overshadow the past month's big play - a push by the dollar to 11-month highs that has supported speculation the U.S. currency was finally on track for a longer-term rally.
The euro also recovered, briefly blipping back above $1.34 before consolidating to trade 0.1 percent higher on the day at $1.3394.
"Geopolitics is muscling out the Fed as the primary market focus," analysts from Citigroup said in a morning note, referring the discussion of U.S. growth and Federal Reserve monetary policy which has markets this year.
"In the case of EURUSD we are dealing with positioning squeeze more than anything else. We saw waves of profit taking in long dollar positions against the yen and franc. Now it's the euro's turn it seems with investors closing short positions."

Tokyo's Nikkei stock average shed 3 percent and other Asian bourses also fell across the board. The yen strengthened further in early European deals to gain 0.4 percent on the day at 101.73.

"Now it's up to how far the flight from risk assets will go. There are many views on the U.S. involvement in Iraq, but it doesn't look like the operations will end any time soon," the trader said.
A Russian ban on Western food imports is expected to weigh chiefly on European growth and the euro.
"Broadly speaking dollar/yen is still in a range centred around 102. But it failed to establish a foothold above 103 last week after the weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls," said Masafumi Yamamoto, market strategist at Praevidentia Strategy in Tokyo.

"With the economic impact of the Ukrainian conflict now drawing more attention and Treasury yields declining, downward bias for the dollar is building," he said.  

By Patrick Graham(Additional reporting by Shinichi Saoshiro; Editing by Toby Chopra)

Banks struggle to fill staff gaps in FX rigging row

Published on: Minggu, 23 Februari 2014 in , , ,

* Currency traders suspended, fired amid FX rate rigging probe
* Banks reluctant to hire lest replacements also tainted
* Forex a major source of income already under regulatory pressure
* Suitable staff already scarce as automated trade thins talent pool

By Patrick Graham and Clare Hutchison

LONDON, Feb 21 (Reuters) - A void is appearing in the upper reaches of the world's biggest and most powerful financial market as banks struggle to replace currency traders suspended or fired during a global investigation into allegations of foreign exchange rate-rigging.
Recruitment firms and sources at some of the banks at the centre of the probe say there is huge reluctance to hire externally because replacements could be tainted by allegations of collusion themselves.
That leaves managers with the choice of promoting more junior staff into powerful chief and senior dealer positions or appointing staff from other units of the bank who are less familiar with the daily workings of the $5.3-trillion-a-day forex market.

While the hiatus may be temporary as the investigation unfolds, it comes at a time when machine-driven algorithmic models have already replaced around two thirds of the spot FX dealers operating in London a decade ago, and there are growing concerns about staffing numbers in the industry.

The financial impact for the banks remains unclear, but it adds pressure on a major source of income that is already suffering from a wave of regulations clamping down on the amount of risk dealers can take.
With prospective bans on proprietary trading spelling a change in how lenders do business, the fallout from the scandal further clouds the outlook for many department managers.
"Certainly it might only be 20 people so far who have been suspended, but it has created one hell of a cloud above the industry," said one well-known headhunter in London, who also declined to be named.
"We have had calls from people who haven't been in the market for a while who think there might be opportunities for them. But I think it's very difficult. Until more decisions are made, there is going to be a little bit of a stand-off."
Regulatory authorities are looking at whether traders at some of the world's biggest banks colluded to manipulate benchmark foreign-exchange rates used to set the value of trillions of dollars of investments.
Banks have taken action against 21 traders, and financial institutions including Royal Bank of Scotland, Deutsche Bank and UBS are now said to be reviewing the rules governing how traders make bets with their own money.

All of the banks who have taken action against traders since the start of the probe declined to comment or had no immediate comment on the resulting recruitment and operational issues.
LONG PROBE
Among other things, industry players say investigators will have to trawl through millions of chatroom conversations and other correspondence for dozens of traders, potentially including some who have since moved on to other jobs.

The head of Britain's FCA financial sector overseer has said its probe is likely to drag on into next year, leaving the banks nervous about hiring anyone with a history of trading at a major institution.
"This is not any sort of downsizing, so all these people will need to be replaced," said a senior manager in foreign exchange at one bank in London, who asked not to be named.
"But banks will need to be extra careful when they look at candidates' history, whether it is internally or externally. Certainly if you are a bank and you want to hire a high flier from another bank, you have to think twice."

The headhunter said banks' other practical problem for the moment is that most of the disciplinary action so far has been in the form of suspensions rather than outright dismissals.
"If you are a big bank who has someone suspended at this time, until a definitive decision is made it's very difficult to go out and hire people purely to fill in a space for someone who is only suspended," he said.
"We can all hazard a guess as to what is going to happen to anyone who is suspended, but we don't know."
A handful of top banks control the multi-trillion-dollar market tied to the benchmark exchange rates. The top five FX dealing banks see around half of the forex market's average daily flow, and the top 10 banks account for almost 80 percent.

DIFFERENT SKILLS
London-based recruiters say the spot FX market in major currencies in the city adds up to around 125-150 dealers at 25 banks - as little as a third of its size a decade ago.
"Electronic solutions are coming in and doing the job that people used to do. The banks also are not taking the same amount of risk, so there is less of a requirement for people, and increasingly it's a different skill set," the headhunter said.

"Banks more and more are just offering an execution service to clients. The rules on (limiting or banning) proprietary risk-taking are making the banks into a different model now which can require a different kind of trader."

A separate investigation last year into rate rigging in another major centre, Singapore, found 133 traders tried to manipulate lending and foreign exchange reference rates, many of whom banks have struggled to replace.
Adriana Swift, Head of Capital Market Sales and Trading at financial recruitment firm Selby Jennings, said those involved would find it hard to move into other parts of the business and will often be forced to change career, unless they are at a junior level and formally cleared of any wrongdoing.
"People generally don't want to hire FX dealers for sales and trading roles in other asset classes because they want people with experience in the sector they're hiring into," she said.

Stay away from Oil and Gold Investing - The rush is over for at least 20 years

Published on: Rabu, 19 Februari 2014 in , ,

Stay away from Oil and Gold Investing. The rush is over for at least 20 years. Ruchir Sharma, Portfolio Manager, Morgan Stanley

The wreckage caused by China’s great, juddering slowdown continues to spread far beyond the country’s shores. Although most commodities enjoyed a bounce on May 3, after better-than-expected U.S. employment data, the plunge in their prices over the past few months suggests the past decade’s rally is truly broken.

For those of us not in the mining industry, this is actually good news — one of the best signs yet that the global economy is returning to normal.
China’s voracious demand for every conceivable raw material — oil, steel, soybeans, gold, to name a few — once seemed to spell a future of endlessly rising commodity prices and falling living standards in developed nations. This was a Malthusian vision of scarcity: Rising demand from the growing economies of the emerging world would couple with shrinking supplies to drive up the prices of natural resources. Gas prices would never come back down; gold would cost thousands of dollars an ounce.
The response, for many international investors, was to bet big on China. Because it is hard to buy directly into China, many instead bought into the commodities that were being sucked into the gaping maw of the country’s economy: oil from Russia, iron ore from Australia and so on.
The China-commodity connection was born. Financial entrepreneurs started exchange-traded funds, which allowed individual investors to trade commodities, including silver and gold, as if they were stocks.

Supercycle Started

For the first time, U.S. pension funds started to allocate a share of their holdings to commodities. Even the Federal Reserve got involved, inadvertently, by printing so much money that a good portion of it wound up fueling speculative bets on China and the big emerging markets, often using commodities as a proxy.
Prices went parabolic. From 2000 to 2011, copper prices rose 450 percent, oil prices 365 percent, and gold prices more than 500 percent to a high of more than $1,900 an ounce. There was talk of oil hitting $200 a barrel, and gold reaching $10,000 an ounce. It was a wild time, all predicated on the idea that the rise of China had set off a commodity “supercycle” that could keep prices high indefinitely.
Commodity prices, such as that of gold, tend to rise when faith in the financial system is in decline and usually fall when confidence is high. In this they resemble the politician of whom Winston Churchill once said: “He has all the virtues I dislike and none of the vices I admire.”

China: U.S. has started a currency war

Published on: Jumat, 14 Februari 2014 in , ,
China National Gold Group Corporation, General Manager Sun Zhaoxue has come out and told the world media that the U.S. is suppressing the gold price. The reason for America’s manipulation of gold is to ensure U.S. Dollar dominance on the world stage. America has by default ended up with the world’s reserve currency and therefore , get the world to work for them in exchange for an ever increasing supply of printed greenbacks. He also went on with an excellent analysis on of America’s war against Europe and the Euro using their investment banks.

Another good insight from Sun Zhaoxue is that while major players like Warren Buffet and Goldman Sachs talk about how they hate gold and forecast price declines they have made large bets on gold and gold companies.


 His comments from the Liujiazui economic forum were as follows:

“The hottest topic at the moment is oil and gold. The ground war we are seeing around the world is I think war for oil whereas gold is the currency war. Why? We observe that the integrity was the driver for US Dollar to become world reserve currency. The US Dollar and gold decoupling from 1971 caused the US Dollar to depreciate massively. From 1990 onwards, the Eurozone was in consultation to form a strong Euro to counter the US Dollar, in order to prevent the latter from stripping Europe of its wealth. The Euro was born in 1999, supported by its strong economy and 11,000 tons of golds.

With the birth of the Euro a competitor to the US Dollar was created, and so the US decided to lay a trap for the Eurozone as part of the currency war. Some countries in the Eurozone violated the Eurozone’s norms by issuing bonds. Which entities participated in the issuance? US investment banks. After the debt was issued, it was US ratings agencies that struck a blow to the Eurozone by saying that its economies had problems.

Only gold remains on par with the US Dollar to benefit from the Eurozone and Euros collapse. This is why the US began to suppress gold by issuing a statement two months ago that the Eurozone will sell its gold when it is unable to service its debt, then stating three days later that the news was false. Furthermore Goldman Sachs made a forecast for the gold price at the beginning of the year but suddenly changed its course saying the gold price will fall to $1300. Buffet said that he would not buy gold even if its price fell to 800USD. Our research indicates that Buffet made a lot of money from four gold companies. So his statement is inconsistent with his personal action.

 Bernanke’s speech followed, saying that monetary easing will end, that the US economy is improving. This series of examples shows that the fall of the gold price is premeditated. So I say that this process
is a genuine currency war.

 Many people say that gold is just a beautiful thing. Then we have to ask the US why they store so much gold but instead of selling gold, they issue debt to other countries to rescue the financial market.

 The US owes Germany so much gold but instead of repaying immediately, sets a 2020 deadline to return the gold. From this example and process as well as some typical factors, this is a downright currency war to maintain US Dollar hegemony by defeating all other currencies.

I shall stop here.














David Y.S. Chiueh - Small fund manager from Taiwan beats Wall Street giants

Published on: in ,
One of the best stock pickers in America last month was a 56-year-old Taiwanese immigrant working out of a small office in suburban New Jersey, 40 kilometres from Wall Street.

David Y.S. Chiueh, the manager of the tiny US$10.5 million Upright Growth Fund, was the only large-cap growth manager among the 1,781 tracked by Morningstar to post a positive return for this year up to February 5.

Though his 1.1 per cent gain was not large in itself, Chiueh’s fund outperformed the average of his category by nearly 5 percentage points and outshone the popular US$108.5 billion Fidelity Contrafund by about 4 percentage points. The broad stock market tumbled 5.2 per cent.

The month-long performance doesn’t appear to be a fluke. Over the last five years, Chiueh has quietly outperformed the benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500 index by an annualised 6.5 percentage points a year, a performance that puts him in the top 3 per cent in his category of large-cap growth funds.
It’s a strong track record for a fund manager who eschews pricey terminals and instead relies on public sources like MSN for financial data, and only made the jump to portfolio manager after working for more than a decade as a financial planner.

Chiueh, who moved to the United States in 1985 and earned a masters in business administration from Rutgers University six years later, manages about US$20 million in all, mostly in accounts held by other Asian-American immigrants.

His outsider status is a source of pride. Many Asian-Americans who work in finance are in support roles rather than management positions, Chiueh said.

“If I’m successful, maybe I can be a role model for minorities,” he said.
His portfolio of 27 stocks is top-weighted, with nearly half his assets in his five largest positions, including Apple, Silicon Motion Technology, Manitowoc, SunEdison and Starbucks.
In a nod to his past career as a financial adviser, his turnover is low, at less than 5 per cent a year, which minimises capital gains taxes for investors.

Analysts, many of whom had never heard of the fund, said Chiueh’s style of making large bets on select companies has worked well but may give some investors pause.

“When the stock selection works, it works really well. When those stocks are out of favour, this fund has [lagged] and will continue to lag, because it is so concentrated,” said Todd Rosenbluth, director of mutual fund research at S&P CapitalIQ.

With just a fraction of what most mutual funds have under management, Chiueh’s expense ratios are well above normal. Most investors will pay US$2.17 per US$100 invested, roughly double the cost of the average actively managed mutual fund.

Chiueh credits his success to a willingness to move between investment styles when the market warrants it.
During the 2009 financial crisis, for instance, he emphasised value by picking up high-quality companies at low prices and holding them. He bought shares in Starbucks in early 2009 at about US$10 per share and sold some of them late last year when they crossed US$80 per share.
At other times, he looks for earnings growth and will hold on to companies even as their price-to-earnings multiples jump higher.
“Like a horse, I’ll keep it running until the horse wants to stop. If he says I’m tired, then we sell,” said Chiueh, who said he’ll typically begin selling once a company’s P/E ratio rises above 30, a figure about double the average of the broad stock market.

Chiueh has about 30 per cent of his portfolio in cash. He began selling some of his positions in strong performers like Starbucks in August after the S&P 500 had rallied 15 per cent while on its way to a nearly 30 per cent gain for the year.

He screens companies in large part through what he calls common sense.
“Chipotle, I missed that one, but if you go to the store, you can see that it’s working, and you don’t need a financial background,” Chiueh said.

He has held on to his shares of Apple despite the company’s laggard performance, for instance, because he thinks that its recent losses in the smartphone marketplace to Samsung are only a pause in the company’s long-term growth rate.
“[Apple] is just temporarily sitting down and sitting back” until it is in a position to release new products, Chiueh said.

Most recently, he has added a position in DirectTV, based on his expectation that the company will continue to expand its subscriber base in Latin America and China.

“The market has given the company a failed valuation, so far, but its market share looks strong,” Chiueh said. DirectTV trades at a P/E ratio of 13.6, slightly below the average of the market as a whole, and is up 11 per cent since Chiueh began buying shares.

Unlike most other large-cap growth managers, Chiueh will also own exchange-traded funds that pay off when the market falls as a way to hedge against losses.
The ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 fund, for instance, makes up about 1.8 per cent of his assets, a position slightly larger than his stakes in Bank of America and MetLife.

After last year’s large stock rally, Chiueh is now most focused on avoiding another financial crisis like the one in 2008-2009.
“If I can do that, I can say I did a good job,” Chiueh said. “It is too early to make a judgment.”

Gold Bugs Catch a Break

Published on: Rabu, 12 Februari 2014 in ,
It’s easy to see the investing wisdom in Warren Buffett’s admonition to “be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.” Acting on that advice is supremely difficult. Still, investors who gambled on gold at the end of an especially frightful 2013—which saw a 28 percent price drop for the precious metal, compared to a positive 29.7 percent return for the Dow Jones Industrial Average—have significant gains to show for it.

Gold bullion has climbed 7.2 percent this year as stocks have dropped 4 percent. There’s been an even more dramatic reversal among gold mining securities, which tend to amplify the gains and losses of the underlying metal. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF, following a brutal 54.5 percent decline in 2013, is up 19.2 percent this year.

Jeffrey Gundlach, founder of DoubleLine Capital, an investment firm overseeing $49 billion, said in his 2014 forecast in January that gold and gold miners were ready to rebound. “Sentiment is black as night on gold so I’m actually long on some gold miners,” he said. Gundlach predicted bullion would rise to $1,350 per ounce, an increase of 12.4 percent from its Dec. 31 price. The median forecast for the fourth quarter of 2014, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts, is $1,225.

Gold’s rise in the last five weeks has caught many analysts by surprise. Goldman Sachs (GS)’s Jeffrey Currie, the bank’s head of commodities research, called the metal a “slam dunk” sell for 2014 in October, after the shutdown of the federal government ended.
Following a big decline in 2013, the gold mining industry could be ripe for more mergers and acquisitions activity. The $10.1 billion of such deals in 2013 was the lowest total since 2004, Bloomberg News reported on Jan. 4. The 10 largest producers are expected to generate free cash flow of $4.17 billion this year, up from negative $1.74 billion in 2013, according to Bloomberg data. The two largest mining companies, Barrick Gold (ABX) and Goldcorp (GG) , report their quarterly earnings on Feb. 13.
Gold bullion gained again in trading today, as Janet Yellen delivered her first testimony to Congress as chair of the Federal Reserve. Yellen said she expected “a great deal of continuity” with the monetary policies of her predecessor, Ben Bernanke. The Fed is now buying $65 billion in bonds each month to stimulate the economy, down $20 billion from its 2013 pace. Many gold bugs predict inflation will follow the central bank’s accumulation of a $4.1 trillion balance sheet.


 Nick Summers covers Wall Street and finance for Bloomberg Businessweek. Twitter: @nicksummers.










 http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-02-11/gold-bugs-catch-a-break

The 10 people behind the scene who control the GLOBAL ECONOMY

Published on: Selasa, 11 Februari 2014 in , ,

THEY sit behind the scenes pulling the strings, but you probably don't even know they exist. 

Officials at the US Federal Reserve hold confidential meetings eight times a year where they pore over economic data from business confidence to building approvals to gauge how the economy is tracking.
What they decide determines monetary policy for the $17 trillion US economy and can trigger changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, employment and the price of goods around the world.
Now, with Janet Yellen at the helm - the first female in their 100 year history - the Fed is about to start winding back stimulus measures which could have a massive impact on Australian markets, including everything from how much your mortgage costs to where you go on holiday.
Confused? This is how it works.
The Federal Reserve in Washington DC.
The Federal Reserve in Washington DC. Source: AFP
The Federal Reserve, as the central bank that regulates the world's biggest economy, is the linchpin of the global financial system.
It's run by a Board of Governors and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) responsible for setting monetary policy in the US covering everything from lending rates to reserve requirements and regulation of the banking system.
Their huge scope means what they do impacts every other financial market in the world, ensuring economists hang on their every word and traders make or lose billions by their decisions.
Westpac economist Elliot Clarke said the Fed is the bedrock of the global financial system and their decisions are "very very important" for the Australian economy.
"They're considered a baseline for markets, it's up to market economists to add more colour," he said.
Janet Yellen, dubbed the $17 trillion woman after taking over the role of Chair.
Janet Yellen, dubbed the $17 trillion woman after taking over the role of Chair.
So who are they?

The FOMC is usually made up of 12 people, including seven from the Board of Governors and five from Federal Reserve banks around the country. But at the moment there are just 10 people due to vacancies in certain seats.

These are the 10 members of the FOMC for 2014
• Janet L. Yellen, Board of Governors, Chair: Former economics professor who previously served as vice chair under Bernanke and is said to be keen to tackle unemployment.
• Jerome H. Powell, Board of Governors: Has a law degree and once served as assistant secretary and undersecretary of the treasury for George Bush.
• Sarah Bloom Raskin, Board of Governors: Took office in 2010 after serving as commissioner of financial regulation in Maryland.
• Jeremy C. Stein, Board of Governors: Former Harvard economics professor who has previously been secretary of the treasury and on staff at National Economics Council.
• Daniel K. Tarullo, Board of Governors: Law professor who was President Clinton's assistant on international economic policy.
• William C. Dudley: Sits on the FOMC permanently as president of New York Federal Reserve and was previously managing partner and economist at Goldman Sachs.
• Richard W. Fisher: President of Dallas Reserve Bank who grew up in Mexico and started his own companies before selling controlling interests when he went into government.
• Narayana Kocherlakota: Baltimore native who was economics professor and research economist at Reserve Bank of Minneapolis before rising to become president.
• Sandra Pianalto: Italian-born economist started out as in the research department in 1983 and rose to become boss at the Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
• Charles I. Plosser: Former Stanford professor who worked as a consultant to high profile companies and banks before becoming President of Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

What's it to me?
Yellen takes over from former Chair Ben Bernanke who ran the Fed for eight years.
Yellen takes over from former Chair Ben Bernanke who ran the Fed for eight years.
Janet Yellen takes the helm at perhaps the trickiest time in the Federal Reserve's history.
Since the financial crisis, the central bank has embarked on three distinct phases of "quantitative easing," a program of purchasing treasury bonds and mortgage backed securities designed to help the US economy recover its strength.
The last phase, known as Operation Twist, began in September 2011 has seen the Fed provide $85 billion worth of stimulus every month from January to November 2013. However they're now looking to wind this back, dropping it to $75 billion in December 2013 and $65 billion in January 2014.

Mr Clarke said the Fed expects to reduce this by $10 billion a month until the economy can stand on its own two feet, relying on "incomes and regular activity drive the economy rather than just excess liquidity."
Actions at the Federal Reserve reverberate in financial markets all around the world. 
The impact in Australia depends on how things pan out, but Mr Clarke said the main thing markets don't like is uncertainty.
"Any data and decision within expectations doesn't tend to impact markets all that much. What is actually a contractual shift in policy can be seen as a positive. It really is to do with market psyche and how this expectations or piece of data impacts markets going forward," he said.
However as the Fed is essentially turning off the money tap and hoping for the best, there is a major risk it won't proceed as expected.
"Our general concern is its [the US economy] is not as strong as people make it out to be. There is a risk that the Fed won't be able to continue to taper and markets might react in a different way, we might actually see a much more prolonged period of tapering," he said, which would mean the Aussie dollar remaining at current levels.

"Our purchasing power would actually be staying around the same level rather than deteriorating. That's a positive for Australian consumers."
However this could provide a risk to markets, where fears over US growth have a negative impact.
"Concerns over the US growth trajectory gets market participants scared and they tend to want to reduce their exposure to risk which means they sell equities," he said.
"It's just really all about market expectations and how they relate to the data we see. Without those that factors you're likely to see continuation in a range around the current level."


Japan battles China for influence in Africa

Japan’s rivalry with China is going global. After years of jousting over obscure islands in the East China Sea and competing for Asian influence, the two countries are now battling for power in a new arena: Africa.
It’s a region that Tokyo has long ceded to the Chinese, allowing Beijing to pile up massive economic and political capital across Africa. But on Friday, in a major shift in strategy, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe arrived in Ivory Coast to begin his first tour of sub-Saharan Africa – and the first by any Japanese prime minister in eight years.

Mr. Abe is expected to announce more than $14-billion (U.S.) in trade and foreign aid agreements during his five-day African tour. It’s a dramatic escalation in Japan’s stake in the African battleground, although certainly not enough to threaten China’s commanding edge in trade and investment in Africa, nor its political clout here.

China’s state media were quick to portray Mr. Abe’s visit as an attempt to challenge Beijing in the African arena. Quoting several Japanese sources, state-owned China Daily said the Japanese leader is seeking to “contain” China’s influence in Africa.

Another Chinese newspaper, Global Times, quoted Japan analyst Geng Xin as saying that Tokyo was “cozying up” to Africa to try to dispel Japan’s image as an “economic giant and political dwarf.” He said Japan is wooing the votes of African countries for its bid to become a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council.

A spokeswoman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Hua Chunying, issued a veiled warning to Japan. “If there is any country out there that attempts to make use of Africa for rivalry, the country is making a wrong decision, which is doomed to fail,” she told a press conference this week.

Japan criticizes Beijing for its tendency to build lavish headquarters and office towers as donations for African politicians – including, most famously, the new $200-million headquarters of the African Union in Addis Ababa, where Mr. Abe is scheduled to give a policy speech next week.

“Countries like Japan … cannot provide African leaders with beautiful houses or beautiful ministerial buildings,” Mr. Abe’s spokesman, Tomohiko Taniguchi, told the BBC.
Japan, he said, prefers to “aid the human capital of Africa.”
But while the two countries take verbal shots at each other, the reality is that China has adopted a far more aggressive strategy in Africa, and has been enormously successful so far. China’s investment in Africa was reported to be about seven times that of Japan in 2011, and its exports to Africa were about five times greater.

China has become the top trading partner, or second-biggest trading partner, of about half of Africa’s countries. It is a major investor in Africa’s resources sector, and the biggest buyer of oil and minerals from many African countries. Its construction companies are building roads, highways, railway lines, sports stadiums, transit systems and hospitals across Africa.

Japan will find it difficult to catch up to China’s political influence here. China’s leaders are frequent visitors to the continent. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is currently in the middle of an African tour, and Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Africa last year on his first overseas trip as President. Beijing has cultivated close relationships with Africa’s ruling parties, routinely inviting their officials on junkets to China.
Japan has lagged far behind in this race. Most of its engagement with Africa is as an aid donor. Last year it promised up to $32-billion in public and private assistance to Africa over the next five years, but this only confirmed its reputation as a donor, rather than a business partner.

Only a handful of Japanese investors are active in Ivory Coast, Ethiopia and Mozambique – the three countries that Mr. Abe is visiting in his current tour. According to a fact sheet by the Japanese government, there are only two Japanese companies in Ivory Coast and only one in Ethiopia.

Mr. Abe, who calls himself Japan’s “top salesman,” seems determined to propel Japan into a much more active role on the world stage. Last year, in the first year of his latest term as Prime Minister, he visited 25 countries around the world – including all 10 countries in Southeast Asia and most of the oil-producing countries in the Persian Gulf. He is expected to visit another six countries this month alone.
Africa is “a frontier for Japan’s diplomacy,” he told reporters as he departed on his latest overseas tour. He is bringing a delegation of Japanese business leaders with him on the tour, signalling his goal of shifting from aid to trade.

The Aussie rally may have just started

Published on: Senin, 10 Februari 2014 in ,


The beleaguered Australian dollar, last year's worst performing G10 currency, surged roughly 2 percent last week reviving hopes for a comeback, analysts told CNBC.
The Aussie has been heading higher ever since the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) removed its easing bias at its first policy meeting of the year. It hit a four-week high of 0.8997 cents on Friday, after weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data hurt the greenback, giving the Aussie a further boost.

"In the medium term we think we're going to be looking at some Aussie strength," said Chris Tedder, market strategist at Forex.com.
"We've just seen last week the RBA remove its easing bias and that takes away some of the possible Aussie downside," he added.

Australian unemployment data, due out on Thursday, will be closely watched by currency traders after December's huge jobs miss, when Australian employers sacked the most people in nine months, sending the Aussie tumbling to its lowest level since August 2010.



But this week's unemployment data could prompt a bounce for the Aussie, said Forex.com's Tedder.
"We are looking for a surprise on the upside in this week's unemployment data so we think that could lead [the Aussie] to move to 90 cents in the short term, and back up to around 92-93 cents in the medium term. That's [the Aussie] one of our favorite trades at the moment," he added.
But other analysts have warned that the recent uptick in the currency could prove a false dawn, and that a number of negative headwinds were still set to push the currency lower this year.
"The recent price action hasn't inspired much confidence," said Paul Mackel, head of Asian FX research at HSBC, referring to Monday's trading, where the Aussie had fallen slightly back to 0.8955 in Asia morning trade.

"We see it slowly drifting to 86 cents by the end of the year, partly because of China, but also because we are positive on the U.S. dollar this year," he said.
(Read More: Is the euro headedfor an Aussie-style crash?)

Mackel said investors should not get too relaxed about the RBA's more hawkish rhetoric recently as it could all change depending on data.

At its February meeting the central bank removed its easing bias, after eight interest rate cuts in two years, and toned down talk of wanting the currency lower.

"The language of the RBA is data dependent, so it's not inspiring a huge level of confidence. Yes, they are not as concerned as last year, but risks remain, from China from the possibility of a deterioration in the external environment," he added.

Timothy Riddell, head of global markets research at Australian investment bank ANZ, said though it was not the bank's core view, there was a risk that jobs data this week could spur a position covering and short-term bounce towards the 92-93 cents level. But he said the "squeeze" was likely to be short-lived, and the Aussie would eventually fall back to the mid-80s.

"There are still a lot of substantial headwinds for the Aussie and the path of least resistance is still to the downside," Riddell told CNBC, naming a firmer U.S. dollar, a slowdown in Asian growth in general and the large build up in China's resource stockpiles, as key negative drivers.
He also pointed to recent Commodities Futures Trading Commission data which showed that the Aussie dollar short trade, extremely popular last year, was still very much in play despite seeing a mild reduction.

The largest traders in the Chinese gold market

Published on: Jumat, 07 Februari 2014 in , , ,



Last week we released a report that looked in to the depths of the Shanghai Gold Market. In the report we revealed the volumes that pass through the exchange as well as the huge amounts of delivery taking place.
We concluded that the SGE would not yet be a force for competition when it came to the New York and London Gold powers of price discovery. But it could, however drive that wedge between the paper and physical gold market.
We now ask who it is that is driving this wedge and are they consistently buying up, or selling down, gold. So we turn our attention to those who are participating in this market.
In our previous article we outlined the levels of participation on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. We quoted the Chairman and President of the Exchange who said, ‘though institutional clients are still the most important participants in the market the market share of individual investors has soared in recent years.’ The graph below is not just institutional investors but those who were make up the top ten market participants. However as our research shows, individuals barely touch the trades coming from institutions.
Top 10 trading members SGE

Since 2011, the following names have dominated the top ten total gold trading table on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. We have calculated the data in the following tables and graphs by taking each of the SGE’s top ten tables for total gold trading, buying and selling. We have then taken the amounts (in kg) each member traded across the months and worked out a percentage representation of the total volumes traded in the 30-month period.
The data shows which institutions feature and account for more than 1% of volumes of the ten largest traders, and also what percentage of activity they accounted for withinthe ten largest traders. There were approximately 45 institutions featured.

Total gold trading

It is clear that whilst individual investors may well be taking up more room on the exchange, there are a few major institutions who represent the lion’s share of the volumes, namely Bank of China and ICBC.
In terms of total gold trading, Bank of China accounted for over 21% of the largest ten members’ activity between January 2011 and June 2013. They were swiftly followed by ICBC and ICBC Personal.

% proportion of top ten active members in total gold trading
Bank of China 21.78
ICBC Personal 13.23
ICBC 6.32
China Gold 6.32
Agricultural Bank of China 5.92
Construction Bank 5.59
Shanghai Pudong Development Bank 4.98
Societe Generale personal 4.12
Shandong Mining 3.54
Minsheng Bank 3.32
Bank of Communications 3.03
Bank of Shanghai 2.93
Zhaojin Group 2.70
Individual 1.58
ANZ 1.32
Industrial Personal 1.26
Shanghai Banking 1.14
Zijin Mining 1.13

NB: Due to putting SGE data through Google Translate there seemed to be a difference between ICBC and ICBC personal. There may also be some misnamed institutions

Individually ICBC and ICBC Personal accounted for 13.2% and 6.3% (respectively) of total gold activity in the period covered. If, as we suspect, they are the same organisation then they still fail to overtake Bank of China.
Note, no foreign banks make it into the top five of those who accounted for the most activity on the exchange. Societe Generale account for less than a fifth of Bank of China’s total activity. ‘Individual’ we take to mean non-institutional and they top the only other foreign institution, ANZ, in terms of activity on the exchange.

Whose buying gold?

When it comes to the ten largest participants in the buy side of the market on the exchange the story hasn’t changed by much. The Bank of China continue to lead the race, accounting for over 17% of the volumes from the ten largest traders going through the exchange in the last 30 months. Once again ICBC and ICBC personal quickly follow up the Bank of China, with 14.7% and 7.12%, should these two be combined then they overtake Bank of China by a significant percentage, over 4%.

% proportion of top ten active members (bid)
Bank of China 17.88
ICBC Personal 14.75
ICBC 7.12
Societe Generale personal 5.85
Shanghai Pudong Development Bank 5.36
China Gold 4.81
Construction Bank 4.35
Agricultural Bank of China 4.17
Chinese Gold 4.15
Zhaojin Group 2.78
Old Phoenix 2.59
Shandong Mining 2.42
Bank of Communications 2.36
Bank of Shanghai 2.28
ANZ 1.97
Shenzhen Greenery 1.86
Shanghai Bank 1.69
Shenzhen Public Hang Lung 1.41
Industrial Bank 1.21
Minsheng Bank 1.20

However, one thing that is interesting to note is that Societe Generale has a larger presence in the buy side of the market, than it does in overall volumes.
Meanwhile on the sell side of the market Bank of China dominate once again, with 23% with ICBC Personal quickly following them with over 13%.

% proportion of top ten active members  (Offer)
Bank of China 23.68
ICBC Personal 13.29
Agricultural Bank of China 7.23
Construction Bank 5.91
Societe Generale personal 5.32
Minsheng Bank 5.09
Shandong Mining 4.61
ICBC 4.48
Shanghai Pudong Development Bank 3.30
Shanghai Bank 3.28
Zhaojin Group 2.62
Bank of Communications 2.52
China Gold 2.46
Zijin Mining 2.01
Bank of Shanghai 1.58
Industrial Bank 1.50
ANZ 1.35
Just to give you a quick insight into the changes in those participating on the exchange we bring you three snapshots of the top ten largest traders in the buy-side of the gold market over the last 30-months.
Snapshot of largest bidders
Interestingly the Bank of China has fallen a position in each year, accounting for less and less of the total bid each time. Whilst 2013’s data only accounts for 6-months, the difference in total bid participation between now and 2011 has fallen by over 6%. In contrast ICBC has managed to climb positions.
Another interesting point of note is that both Societe Generale and ANZ have fallen out of the top buyers this year. In fact, ANZ does not feature at all in the 2013 data.

Concluding remarks

As we said previously in our opening comments, we do not believe that the Shangai Gold Exchange is in a position to impact the international gold price in a dominant way quite yet.
However, it is interesting to take note of who the main players are in this market. Given the power JP Morgan et al are said to have in the paper gold market and the price of gold, we suspect their Chinese contemporaries are also going to be significant in the future. Particularly as we suspect pushing up the value of the dollar will not be at the top of their remit.

Source : http://therealasset.co.uk/traders-chinese-gold-market/

U.S. trade deficit widens 12% to USD38.7 billion in December

Published on: in ,
The U.S. trade deficit widened significantly in December, as exports dropped 2.2% and imports rose 1.6%, official data showed on Thursday.
In a report, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis said that the U.S. trade deficit widened to a seasonally adjusted USD38.7 billion in December from a deficit of USD34.56 billion in November, whose figure was revised from a previously reported deficit of USD34.25 billion. Analysts had expected the U.S. trade deficit to widen to USD36 billion in December.

U.S. exports fell 2.2% to USD191.29 billion in December, while imports rose 1.6% to USD229.99 billion.
Following the release of the data, the euro added to losses against the U.S. dollar, with EUR/USD shedding 0.31% to trade at 1.3491.

Meanwhile, the outlook for U.S. equity markets remained higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures indicated a gain of 0.25% at the open, S&P 500 futures pointed to an increase of 0.2%, while the Nasdaq 100 futures indicated a rise of 0.3%.

New Zealand Unemployment drops to 6pc

Published on: in , ,
New Zealand's unemployment rate fell to a three-year low in the fourth quarter of 2013 as jobs growth beat expectations, led by gains in the retail, accommodation and hospitality sectors.
The unemployment rate fell to 6 per cent in the three months ended December 31, in line with the forecast by a Reuters survey of economists, and down from 6.2 per cent in the September quarter, according to Statistics New Zealand's household labour force survey. That's the lowest jobless rate since June 2009.

Employment rose 1.1 per cent in the quarter, beating the 0.5 per cent pace of growth forecast, led by gains in retail, accommodation and food services, construction, and professional scientific, technical, administration and support services. Employment grew 3 per cent on an annual basis.
"We're seeing strength across the labour market, particularly in industries that provide service," industry and labour statistics manager Diane Ramsay said in a statement. "The unemployment rate has been falling and employment rising for the last 18 months, with both now at levels last seen in early 2009."
The kiwi dollar climbed to 82.43 US cents after the figures were released, from 82.19 cents immediately before as the data added to evidence of a rebounding economy that will spur the central bank to raise interest rates this year.
New Zealand's participation rate rose to 68.9 per cent in the December quarter from 68.6 per cent in September, and was up 0.7 percentage points from a year earlier, against a backdrop of rising inbound migration.
The labour cost index, which measures wage inflation, rose at a quarterly pace of 0.5 per cent across all sectors and including overtime. Private sector wages rose 0.6 per cent, ahead of a 0.4 per cent increase in public sector wages.
The figures come as surveys last month showed signs of an improving labour market, with gains in employment confidence and firms finding it harder to hire find skilled and unskilled workers. The Reserve Bank is keeping tabs on capacity pressure that may emerge as the Canterbury rebuild and Auckland housing suck up resources, which may spill over into broader inflation if wages rise, and lead to higher consumer prices.
Unemployment in Auckland fell to 6.3 per cent in December from 6.7 per cent, while Canterbury's jobless dropped to 3.4 per cent from 4.2 per cent.
The number of construction workers rose to 185,800 in the quarter from 177,800 in the third quarter, and manufacturing jobs increased to 254,000 from 247,900. Retail, accommodation and hospitality employees increased to 363,100 from 356,200. Agriculture, fishing and forestry employees increased to 149,500 from 138,700.
Today's figures show total hours worked fell 0.3 per cent to a seasonally adjusted 75.7 million hours in the quarter, though that was 1.3 per cent annually.
Underemployment increased, with 5.3 per cent of part-time workers wanting to take on more work, compared to 4.2 per cent in the September quarter.
The quarterly employment survey, also released today, showed ordinary time private sector wages increased 0.3 per cent to $25.98 in the quarter, and were up 3.2 per cent on an annual basis. That compared to a 0.2 per cent fall in public sector wages to $35.27 and an annual increase of 1.6 per cent.
Average weekly earnings for full-time equivalents ordinary time increased 0.2 per cent to $1,051.64.
New Zealand's unemployment rate ranked 12th lowest among developed nations, below Chile and above Luxembourg.
The labour market continues to grow and unemployment has fallen 0.2 per cent to 6 per cent, Statistics New Zealand has just announced.

In the latest employment stats just published, Statistics NZ said there were 24,000 more people employed in the December 2013 quarter, following an additional 28,000 in the September quarter.
Over the December 2013 year, the number of people employed rose 3 per cent in the Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS). Demand for workers from established businesses rose 1.9 per cent in the Quarterly Employment Survey (QES).

"We're seeing strength across the labour market, particularly in the industries that provide services,"industry and labour statistics manager Diane Ramsay said. "The unemployment rate has been falling and employment rising for the last 18 months, with both now at levels last seen in early 2009."
Annual wage inflation, as measured by the labour cost index (LCI) salary and ordinary time wage rates, remained steady at 1.6 per cent in the December 2013 quarter. Average ordinary time hourly earnings, as measured by the QES, rose 2.9 per cent over the year - up from 2.6 per cent in the September quarter.

US STOCKS-Wall Street slumps to hit lowest level since October

Published on: Selasa, 04 Februari 2014 in , , ,

NEW YORK, Feb 3 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks slumped on Monday, with the S&P 500 hitting its lowest level since October after weaker-than-expected data on the factory sector in the world's largest economy provided investors with the latest reason to book profits.
U.S. manufacturing grew at a slower pace in January as new order growth plunged by the most in 33 years, while spending on construction projects barely rose in December.
Investor sentiment soured sharply after the factory data, driving the cost of protection against a drop on the S&P to its highest level in nearly four months. The CBOE volatility index jumped more than 11 percent to trade above 20 for the first time since early October.
"People realize we are at these significant levels and they start looking around and they are thinking the multiples have expanded, they are looking at the Fed tapering, they are still seeing a variety of earnings releases, and they are saying, 'let me take a little risk off,'" said Gordon Charlop, managing director at Rosenblatt Securities in New York.
"Guys are saying, 'if I can get out and some of the selling will come in behind me, maybe I can get in at advantageous (prices),' so there is a little bit of a trade in here too."
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 268.12 points or 1.71 percent, to 15,430.73, the S&P 500 lost 36.63 points or 2.05 percent, to 1,745.96 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 107.46 points or 2.62 percent, to 3,996.418.

Selling was broad-based, with only seven components in the S&P 500 trading in positive territory. Telecoms, down 3.2 percent and consumer discretionary, down 2.6 percent, were among the worst performing sectors. The Dow Jones Transportation average dropped 3.1 percent.
Stocks were pressured late last month by concern about growth in China and as the Federal Reserve confirmed its commitment to withdrawing its market-friendly stimulus. China's service-sector growth slowed to a five-year low in another sign of stuttering momentum in the world's second-largest economy.
For January, the Dow tumbled 5.3 percent and the S&P 500 slid 3.6 percent - their worst monthly percentage declines since May 2012.

Investors were also wary about the outlook for emerging markets, where a recent rout in currencies spurred some central banks to raise interest rates or intervene in markets to limit the swings. That, in turn, has pressured bond and stock holdings and forced investors to exit in favor of assets perceived as relatively safe, like the yen and Swiss franc.

With earnings season halfway over, Thomson Reuters data shows that of the 250 companies in the S&P 500 index that have reported earnings, 69.7 percent have topped expectations, above both the 63 percent beat rate since 1994 and the 67 percent rate for the past four quarters.

Telecoms were weaker on speculation AT&T Inc's plan to cut prices on its large shared data plans could prompt other U.S. carriers, particularly larger rival Verizon Wireless , to offer new discounts. AT&T lost 3.2 percent to $32.24 and Verizon lost 3 percent to $46.58.

Charter Communications Inc is discussing raising its bid for Time Warner Cable Inc as soon as in the next two weeks, according to people familiar with the matter, a move that could pressure its reluctant rival ahead of a proxy deadline. TWC shares shed 0.6 percent to $136.20.

Britain's Smith & Nephew is to buy ArthroCare Corp for $1.7 billion in cash to strengthen its treatments for sports injuries, an area growing faster than its main replacement hips and knees business. ArthroCare shares rose 8.5 percent to $49.25.

Pfizer's shares rose 1.8 percent to $30.94 after its experimental breast cancer drug significantly delayed progression of symptoms in a mid-stage trial, meeting the study's primary goal.

Could currency wars make a comeback in 2014?

Published on: Senin, 03 Februari 2014 in , ,


Currency wars: the buzz word that dominated markets early last year threatens to make a comeback at the start of 2014, judging by a rise in official rhetoric from Japan's neighbors about a weak yen.
South Korea is "closely monitoring" the won and the continuing depreciation of the yen, the country's Finance Minister Hyun Oh-seok was quoted saying on Friday. The comments follow similar remarks earlier in the week from Chinese and South Korean officials.
(Read more: Yen set for worst year since YMCA topped the charts)
Perhaps it's no wonder that concerns about the yen's sharp fall, which gives Japanese exporters an edge over its competitors in overseas markets, have resurfaced.

The won on Thursday hit its strongest level in more than five years, contributing to a fall in South Korean stocks to a four-month low on Friday. The yen hit a 15-year low of around 5.7360 yuan on Thursday.
(Read more: The Asian market laggard could shine in 2014)

"You've got to understand what the threshold of pain for other Asian nations would be," said David Greene, had of dealing at AFEX Australia.
"From a technical perspective, 112 [for dollar/yen] is possible this year. Whether other Asian economies such as South Korea see that as negative for their own economies and start to play an intervention role or enter a currency war within the region remains to be seen," he said. "It's not something I would like to bet on as we don't know what central banks are going to do."
Verbal intervention from Japan's neighbors this week may have contributed to the bounce in the Japanese currency against the won, yuan and U.S. dollar on Friday. The yen traded at about 104.36 to the greenback, off this week's five-year low around 105.44.

In early 2013, talk of currency wars, triggered in part by the yen's sharp fall, dominated currency markets. That was before another big theme of 2014 emerged – talk of an unwinding of U.S. monetary stimulus.
"It's really the yen crosses that we'll see a lot of the big moves in this year," Michael Woolfolk, managing director and senior currency strategist at BNY Mellon in New York told CNBC Asia's "Squawk Box."
"It should put a lot of pressure on the emerging Asian currencies. We think they will push back, that there will be an escalation of currency wars and intervention is the most likely route," he added.
The yen declined almost 22 percent against the dollar last year against a backdrop of aggressive monetary easing by the Bank of Japan and broad strength in the U.S. currency on talk of Fed tapering. It was the worst performing major currency of 2013.

(Read more: Abenomics scorecard: A for early initiative, 'C' for follow-through)
"The yen/won movements have not hit exporters significantly, but it does look like they [the South Korean authorities] are taking a pre-emptive approach so the noises they've made this week are not unusual," said Mizuho Corporate Bank Market Economist Vishnu Varathan.

"We're not looking at exceptionally strong currencies across emerging markets, so I think it will be just the export-focused north Asia that continue to make noise about their strong currencies," he added.

Oil Could Push Higher if Bullish Economic Growth Forecasts Ring True

Published on: Kamis, 30 Januari 2014 in , ,
Crude oil trading could result in the price of the commodity experiencing substantial gains if the predictions of widespread economic growth provided by market participants end up having some accuracy.
The forecasts that have been made about how well global business conditions will fare in 2014 and after could play a key role in the performance of crude oil, as the expectations that investors have for the worldwide economy are a crucial contributor to the price of the commodity.
The global economy should expand more rapidly this year than it did in 2013, at least according to the most recent estimates released by the International Monetary Fund in the latest update to its World Economic Outlook.

IMF bolsters 2014 global growth estimate

The organization forecast that in 2014, gross domestic product will grow at a rate of 3.7 percent. This figure was 0.1 percent higher than the estimate that it provided in the prior update to the WEO, which was made in October. In addition, this pace will hasten slightly in 2015, reaching an annual rate of 3.9 percent.
While the financial institution increased its forecast for global growth, a recent poll conducted by Bloomberg revealed that the majority of participants believe that the global economic outlook is getting better. The survey, which involved close to 500 traders, investors and analysts who subscribe to the media outlet, revealed that 59 percent of participants had this optimistic view.
“Developed countries are playing by far the most important part of the recovery in confidence, in markets and in the economy,” Wilhelm Schroeder, who works in Munich as managing director of Schroeder Equities GmbH and contributed to the poll, told the news source. “Without doubt, confidence is the single most important determinant for growth.”

Growth forecasts increased for several nations

The IMF also increased its growth predictions for the economies of several nations, including that of the U.S., Reuters reported. The organization forecast that in 2014, the GDP of the world’s largest economy would grow at a rate of 2.8 percent.
Such growth would certainly represent an improvement, as the nation’s economy expanded at a 1.9 percent pace in 2013, according to figures provided in the IMF report. The document released by the organization noted that declining headwinds from fiscal policy, and the subsequent impact that this should have on domestic demand, will help speed up the U.S. recovery.

Conference Board provides encouraging data for U.S.

This prediction that the American economy will grow more quickly in 2014 is supported by a December measure of leading indicators for the North American nation, Bloomberg reported. Data provided by the Conference Board revealed that during the month, the organization’s outlook for the coming three-to-six month period was 0.1 percent higher than the most recent rendition.

“It’s still consistent with a stronger economy in 2014,” Scott Anderson, who works in San Francisco at Bank of the West as chief economist, stated before the report was released, according to the news source. “We expect a healthier consumer, better business spending and somewhat faster job growth.”
The perception that economic conditions are improving was also supported by the most recent jobless claims report, which was released on Jan. 23, and revealed that during the prior week, the number of people who filed initial applications for these benefits lingered close to its lowest in six weeks, according to the news source.

The labor market is seen by many as being a key indicator of the strength of the economy. The improvement in this crucial measure was noted by Jim Diffley, a senior director at IHS and also the lead author of a report on U.S. metropolitan areas that was recently released, according to USA Today. The document, which was generated by IHS Global Insight, forecast that in 2014, 356 of the 363 metropolitan areas will expand.
“We’re finally on an upward trajectory with good job growth,” Diffley told the media outlet. “The recovery has started to affect substantially everywhere.” He added that many regions will need to recover substantially to get back to the level they were at before the financial crisis. “Two thirds of metros have still not gotten back to 2007 or 2008 peak levels of employment, and half of those won’t get there for another three years,” Diffley told the news source. “Financial crises do not produce normal recessions in the U.S.”
Additional data provided by the Conference Board pointed to the U.S. economy being strong at the present time, according to Bloomberg. The December index of coincident indicators released by The Conference Board was 0.2 percent higher than during the month before.

“This latest report suggests steady growth this spring, but some uncertainties remain,” Ken Goldstein, who works for the Conference Board as an economist, said in a statement today, the media outlet reported. “Business caution and concern about unresolved federal budget battles persist, but the better-than-expected holiday season might point to

Strengthening Dollar Seen by UBS Damping Demand for Commodities

Published on: Rabu, 22 Januari 2014 in , , , ,
A strengthening U.S. dollar will damp demand for commodities this year, according to UBS AG.
The greenback, at a four-month high against 10 major peers, will strengthen further because of the Federal Reserve’s tapering of stimulus, the shale oil and gas “boom” and a growing trend for businesses to move back to the U.S., the bank said in a report dated yesterday. That will damage conditions in emerging markets and commodity demand, according to the bank.

“We believe we are about to see a cyclically and structurally stronger dollar,” Julien Garran, a London-based analyst at UBS, wrote in the report. “A strong dollar will prove to be a major problem for commodities and emerging markets in 2014.”

Investors dumped emerging markets and commodities at a record pace last year amid concerns slowing growth there will curb demand for raw materials and a stronger dollar will add to the headwinds. Investors withdrew a record $43.3 billion from commodities and $31.4 billion from emerging-markets bond funds, the most ever, according to researcher EPFR Global. Withdrawals from emerging markets equity funds were $27.6 billion.

“When the dollar trends higher, and capital flows out of emerging markets, commodity intensity in global GDP growth tends to fall by two-thirds,” Garran wrote. “Historically, trend global copper demand growth has fallen from 5 percent under emerging markets inflows to 1.6 percent under outflows.”
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose to a four-month high today and is 1.6 percent higher this year. The gauge’s 3.5 percent gain last year was the biggest since 2008. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index (SPGSCI) of 24 raw materials slid 2.2 percent last year, its first drop since 2008, and fell 2.2 percent so far this year.

U.S. dollar stands tall, while Aussie buckles

Published on: Senin, 20 Januari 2014 in , ,

SYDNEY, Jan 20 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar started Monday near a two-month high, having enjoyed a solid comeback last week after a string of mostly upbeat data convinced markets the Federal Reserve will continue its gradual withdrawal of stimulus.
The dollar index stood at 81.215, after rising 0.7 percent last week to as high as 81.295. Data on Friday showed U.S. industrial output rose at its fastest clip in 3-1/2 years in the fourth quarter, adding to other encouraging reports such as retail sales.

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker on Friday said signs of an improving labour market justified further reductions in the Fed's monthly bond purchases.

The euro traded at $1.3530, not far from a two-month trough of $1.3517 plumbed on Friday. Against the yen, both the dollar and the common currency were a touch softer at 104.27 and 141.06 respectively.
Traders expect little market action in the lead up to a batch of Chinese data due around 0200 GMT, while overall volume could be dampened by a holiday in the United States.

China will release industrial output, retail sales and fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP).
Analysts at Barclays Capital see a further moderation in China's industrial production growth and GDP as elevated interest rates across the money, bond and credit markets could lead to higher funding costs and weigh on economic growth.

"Investors in resource risk currencies such as the AUD, BRL and ZAR will be watching the news out of China very closely, as it will set the tone not just for now but for the rest of the trading year," said Evan Lucas, strategist at IG in Melbourne.

"The market is looking to poke holes in anything that shows signs of sustainability from China."
The Aussie, already hit by weak jobs data at home last week, looked vulnerable at $0.8771 within a hair's breadth of a 3-1/2 year trough of $0.8764 plumbed Friday.

Traders said the 87 U.S. cent area should provide good support, like it did back in 2010, although a break could see it test $0.8600 in a hurry.

In contrast, sterling held onto most of Friday's gains after British retailers reported their fastest sales growth in more than nine years.

The pound traded at $1.6411, having risen more than 0.4 percent to a high of $1.6459. Early this year, it hit a three-year high of $1.6605.

Trader Indo Kasus lagi

Published on: Sabtu, 18 Januari 2014 in ,

 Jakarta - Ahmad Zamani (32) menjadi korban penyekapan di Ruko di Jalan Hayam Wuruk, Taman Sari, Jakarta Barat terlihat lelah saat menceritakan penyekapan yang dia alami. Zamani mengaku terlibat utang karena usaha trading onlinenya bangkrut dan dirinya utang Rp 1 M lebih.

"Ceritanya satu setengah tahun lalu usaha trading online saya bersama teman-teman berjalan lancar, namun tahun ini ambruk. Dan salah satu teman saya yang bernama Franki tidak sabar makanya dia secara tidak langsung gunakan jasa penagihan atau Debt Collector," ujar Ahmad Zamani kepada wartawan di Polsek Taman Sari, Rabu (18/9/2013).  baca selengkapnya...

Ini yang mebuat saya bingung..."keberanian dan merasa yakin berlebehihan dengan skill" yang mengakibat mau menjalankan bahkan mencari dan menawar nawarkan jasa jalanin duit orang.


kalau seadainya seseorang sudah betul-betul bisa menikmati atau minimal bisa "survive" dari bidang ini lah ngapaiin mesti capek-capek jadi budak orang, masih tetep dong ada di bawah pressure, gak ada lagi yang judulnya "Financial Freedom".

Toh kasarannya dengan modal minimpun kita bisa "Give Nothing Took Everything" ya minimalnya bisa ada buat kebutuhan hidup sehari-hari..jika dimanage dengan baik bukan hal yang tidak mungkin satu acc mini dengan modal kecil jadi bengkak.

Skill seadanya pengetahuan minim, big map gak tahu, indi abal abal, dll nya kok berani beraninya dan mau coba coba pake acara sok sokan investasi investasian, makin minus lah julukan trader Indo ama yang begini beginian dan itu terus berlanjut.

Banyak bahasan bahasan tulisan di belakang,  trutama untuk investor kalau emang mau berinvestasi ya hati hati minta track recordnya, 1 - 3 tahun trade, pasti kalau dia bener akan punya trade portfolio dalam kurun waktu tertentu, ya untuk trader juga kalau betul-betul mumpuni ngapaiin nanggung jalanin yang begituan, capek doang, kalau bener bener mau jadi fund manager/mengabdikan skill agan pada satu badan buka buka ini kalau beneran agan trade handal nanggung jalanin 1M mah :D banyak dana di sana yang bisa agan kelola kalau bener2 agan agan trader mumpuni.

 nih contoh tempat kerja agan jika agan bisa tembus he he he :

Investor dicariin ama mereka, malahan investor yang mendatangi loh.., ini ane kasih link salah satunya : http://www.blackrock.com/ ente apply tuh sertakan Portfolio trade agan 1- 3 tahunan siapa tahu laku :dapet panggilan daripada ngebusa nampilin statement buat nyari popularitas, jualan system, indie atau EA hE he he..gajihnya ( jngan nanya digit bozzz ) pun jauh lebih gede daripada pendapatan ente buka kursus kursus an..seminar seminaran he he he..dan ente ngerasaiin trade floor..bukan hanya ngesot dilantai wkwkwkw..buktiin kata kata agan di seminar, di kursusan atau di forum dan media social di sono. Daripada agan jadi marketing Broker Local an nipu 

nasabah agan, dengan skill agan, mendingan buktiin skill agan tsb  jika emang capable dan bisa diterima mereka, jangan nanggung Bozz...Unjukin pada mereka System, EA atau Indi yang agan tawar-tawarin tuh bisa konsisten profitable, toh mereka gak butuh puluhan bahkan ratusan % dalam sebulan kok.

hayo siapa yang berani coba .Ngomong aja ente sok gede di forum, sok - sok an di media social, tampilin statement stament an, nyari nyari nasabah, masa buka kursus berani,..seminar bla bla bla..jual system dan indi..

BlackRock wordmark.svg
Type Public
Traded as NYSE: BLK
S&P 500 Component
Industry Investment management
Founded 1988
Headquarters New York City, USA
Area served Worldwide
Key people Laurence Fink
(Chairman & CEO)
Robert Kapito (President)
Products Asset management
Revenue Increase US$ 9.08 billion (2011)
Net income Increase US$ 2.239 billion (2011)
AUM Increase US$ 3.792 trillion (2012)
Total assets Increase US$ 178.4 billion (2010)
Total equity Increase US$ 24.3 billion (2009)
Employees 10,100 (2011)

ayo ah om - om atau tante - tante yang mastah - mastah ane pengen denger jangan omdo ujungnya tipu tipu..
atau ente bisa coba disini:

UBS

Masih banyak lagi Gan yang bisa nganterin anda ke bidang Treasury





How far will U.S. equities run

Published on: Jumat, 17 Januari 2014 in , ,
2013 has drawn to a close and it was one for the record books with the best yearly stock returns in almost 15 years. While not as eventful as previous years, there was still quite a bit of action from the first government shutdown in over a decade to the start of Fed monetary policy tapering to the re-emergence of the EU, not to mention the blistering U.S. equity rally.



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How far will U.S. equities run in 2014 after their 31% gain last year?
Though those invested in U.S. equities surely had a stunning year, it was by no means across the board and there were many ups and downs for people diversified and invested in other assets. Here’s what made or lost you money in 2013 and what 2014 may bring.

1. How far will U.S. equities run?

On the top of almost everyone’s mind is the U.S. equities market. Up 31%, it almost didn’t matter what you were in, small, mid, and large caps all offered record-breaking returns. In comparison, even the legendary market reversal of 2009 only offered a 26% yearly gain. One would have to go back to 1997, the beginning of the late ‘90s bull market to find a bigger return at 33%.
However, the strong rally has also made stocks considerably more expensive. Though the question of the market being overvalued is the topic of much debate, it is clear the market is no longer cheap. Historical results say there’s no reason the market can’t rally further but there lacks a compelling case for another equally strong rally based on the fundamentals. Perhaps the best advice is making sure you rebalance your portfolio to get U.S. equities back in proper allocation and stay diversified.

2. Can hot sectors repeat?

While the entire U.S. corporate securities market was up aplenty, there were specific asset groups that broke away from the average and delivered even better returns. Consumer discretionary XLY +0.08%  , up 41%, health care XLV +0.25%  , up 39%, industrials XLI -0.04%  , up 38%, and financials XLF -0.23%  , up 33%, led the way for almost the entire year. Specific industries like airlines jumped almost 100% and certain companies like Netflix NFLX +0.02%  ended up 300%.
Like the overall market, there’s little to suggest whether the future is as bright as the past. Hedging bets by rebalancing allocation and diversifying however is a smart and safe play.

3. Will underperformers rebound?

Of course where there are winners, there are also losers. While several sectors underperformed the average, most returned decent results such as energy and consumer staples at 23% and 22%. The exceptions are the utilities sector XLU +0.69%  , up 8%, and property REITs VNQ -0.18%  , up 2.3%. Both these sectors are reliable income-paying assets but lost ground as the Fed taper became a reality. REITs especially took punishment, dropping 17% from May to June alone.
What is the 2014 outlook? Utilities remain high from a historical valuation standpoint and their yield is no longer quite as attractive as 10-year bond yields reach 3%, comparable to XLU’s 3.8%. REITs still face the rising-interest-rate problem but have reduced in valuation such that they may present at least some short-term opportunities.

4. Are bonds a safe haven?

Bonds had a relatively dismal year in contrast to stocks. While Fed stimulus and bond buying helped to push bond prices to record levels, and yields to record lows, the Fed taper put an end to that quickly and abruptly. From its high in May, the 7-10 Year Treasury ETF IEF +0.28%  dropped over 7% for a 2013 total return of -6.1%, huge compared to its pitiful 1.7% yield. The broader bond market AGG -0.23%  suffered a similar if less dramatic drop, down approximately. 3% from its peak in May for a 2013 total return of -2.1%, a large drop taking into account the low 2.3% yield.
Moving forward to 2014, anticipation of Fed taper has already doubled the 10-year Treasury yield, now at nearly 3%, giving bonds some breathing room. In fact, some suspect the market has overreacted and driven yields up a little bit too high too fast given the early state of tapering. Regardless, bonds have finally come down from highs and are now closer to historically normal prices. While longer-term interest rates will still climb, threatening bond prices, for 2014 the immediate price risks have subsided. The question for investors is whether the risk is worth the rather measly 2-2.5% yield most bond funds are offering.
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